Most Overvalued Housing Markets
Two ratios do most of the work in any overvaluation argument: what a home costs relative to local income, and what it costs relative to local rent. Both are on this page, for every state and for the 625 counties with enough sales to rank honestly. overvaluation % = 100 × (region ratio ÷ median of all non-null state ratios − 1) — the benchmark is the median of the current snapshot, computed at build time, not a proprietary long-run anchor. We do not have one, so we do not claim one, and nothing here is presented as a fair-value estimate or a forecast. Market data is as of May 31, 2026. Free, no signup. Same ratios in JSON at /api/states/index.json. How this compares to Reventure.
Most stretched vs income California 9.21× income · +75.1% vs the median state
Most stretched vs rent New York 32.96 years of rent · +52.3% vs the median state
The benchmark itself 5.26× income · 21.64 yrs rent median of n=50 states; the District of Columbia excluded (ratios are null in the source data)
Price-to-income ratio by state
Median sale price divided by median household income, the formula the pipeline uses: valueToIncome = current.medianSalePrice ÷ census.medianHouseholdIncome. Redfin price, Census ACS income. The "vs median state" column is that ratio measured against 5.26×, the median across the 50 states that carry the field. The threshold band is a separate thing: 3.5× / 5.0× / 7.0× are the same judgment cut points hard-coded in our crash-risk model, and they already appear on our state and county pages. They are thresholds, not a benchmark computed from this data, and they do not feed the percentage column. The two references behind them are named and linked in the method notes below.
| # | State | Median Sale Price | Median Household Income | Price ÷ Income | vs Median State (5.26×) | Threshold Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California | $887,400 | $96,334 | 9.21× | +75.1% | 7.0×+ |
| 2 | Montana | $528,600 | $69,922 | 7.56× | +43.7% | 7.0×+ |
| 3 | Hawaii | $741,300 | $98,317 | 7.54× | +43.3% | 7.0×+ |
| 4 | New York | $620,500 | $84,578 | 7.34× | +39.5% | 7.0×+ |
| 5 | Washington | $651,800 | $94,952 | 6.86× | +30.4% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 6 | Massachusetts | $688,100 | $101,341 | 6.79× | +29.1% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 7 | Idaho | $503,400 | $74,636 | 6.74× | +28.1% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 8 | Colorado | $617,000 | $92,470 | 6.67× | +26.8% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 9 | Oregon | $525,500 | $80,426 | 6.53× | +24.1% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 10 | Nevada | $481,200 | $75,561 | 6.37× | +21.1% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 11 | New Mexico | $395,500 | $62,125 | 6.37× | +21.1% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 12 | Rhode Island | $536,900 | $86,372 | 6.22× | +18.3% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 13 | Wyoming | $464,500 | $74,815 | 6.21× | +18.1% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 14 | Tennessee | $413,200 | $67,097 | 6.16× | +17.1% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 15 | Maine | $439,200 | $71,773 | 6.12× | +16.3% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 16 | Utah | $560,200 | $91,750 | 6.11× | +16.2% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 17 | Arizona | $453,800 | $76,872 | 5.90× | +12.2% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 18 | South Carolina | $394,000 | $66,818 | 5.90× | +12.2% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 19 | Florida | $421,500 | $71,711 | 5.88× | +11.8% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 20 | Vermont | $448,400 | $78,024 | 5.75× | +9.3% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 21 | New Jersey | $579,900 | $101,050 | 5.74× | +9.1% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 22 | North Carolina | $397,600 | $69,904 | 5.69× | +8.2% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 23 | New Hampshire | $537,900 | $95,628 | 5.62× | +6.8% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 24 | Virginia | $499,300 | $90,974 | 5.49× | +4.4% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 25 | Connecticut | $498,000 | $93,760 | 5.31× | +1.0% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 26 | Georgia | $389,000 | $74,664 | 5.21× | -1.0% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 27 | Mississippi | $284,300 | $54,915 | 5.18× | -1.5% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 28 | Alabama | $312,600 | $62,027 | 5.04× | -4.2% | 5.0–7.0× |
| 29 | South Dakota | $346,600 | $72,421 | 4.79× | -8.9% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 30 | Alaska | $427,100 | $89,336 | 4.78× | -9.1% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 31 | Wisconsin | $361,600 | $75,670 | 4.78× | -9.1% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 32 | Maryland | $477,300 | $101,652 | 4.70× | -10.6% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 33 | Arkansas | $275,500 | $58,773 | 4.69× | -10.8% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 34 | Texas | $356,100 | $76,292 | 4.67× | -11.2% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 35 | Delaware | $384,500 | $82,855 | 4.64× | -11.8% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 36 | West Virginia | $265,200 | $57,917 | 4.58× | -12.9% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 37 | Kentucky | $284,400 | $62,417 | 4.56× | -13.3% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 38 | Louisiana | $269,000 | $60,023 | 4.48× | -14.8% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 39 | Kansas | $316,300 | $72,639 | 4.35× | -17.3% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 40 | Pennsylvania | $330,200 | $76,081 | 4.34× | -17.5% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 41 | Missouri | $297,500 | $68,920 | 4.32× | -17.9% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 42 | Nebraska | $319,100 | $74,985 | 4.26× | -19.0% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 43 | Minnesota | $372,300 | $87,556 | 4.25× | -19.2% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 44 | Michigan | $297,900 | $71,149 | 4.19× | -20.3% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 45 | Oklahoma | $264,600 | $63,603 | 4.16× | -20.9% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 46 | Illinois | $337,900 | $81,702 | 4.14× | -21.3% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 47 | Indiana | $287,300 | $70,051 | 4.10× | -22.1% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 48 | North Dakota | $311,200 | $75,949 | 4.10× | -22.1% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 49 | Ohio | $282,600 | $69,680 | 4.06× | -22.8% | 3.5–5.0× |
| 50 | Iowa | $258,700 | $73,147 | 3.54× | -32.7% | 3.5–5.0× |
Price-to-rent ratio by state
Years of gross rent it takes to equal the median sale price: valueToRent = current.medianSalePrice ÷ (monthly rent × 12). Rent is the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) metro CSV — mean of metros per state. Gross yield is simply 1 ÷ years, computed here rather than read from the stored rentYield field, which overstated every state by 12× until we corrected it. The last column compares each state to its own trailing 23-month mean of the same ratio, rebuilt month by month from the price trend and the rent series (July 31, 2024 through May 31, 2026). That is 23 months of history. It is not a long-run average and we do not label it as one.
| # | State | Median Sale Price | ZORI Monthly Rent | Years of Rent to Buy | vs Median State (21.64) | Gross Yield (1 ÷ Years) | vs Own 23-Month Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York | $620,500 | $1,569 | 32.96 | +52.3% | 3.03% | +8.2% |
| 2 | California | $887,400 | $2,361 | 31.32 | +44.7% | 3.19% | +3.3% |
| 3 | Washington | $651,800 | $1,766 | 30.76 | +42.1% | 3.25% | -1.1% |
| 4 | Montana | $528,600 | $1,647 | 26.75 | +23.6% | 3.74% | -3.3% |
| 5 | Oregon | $525,500 | $1,653 | 26.49 | +22.4% | 3.78% | +1.5% |
| 6 | Idaho | $503,400 | $1,588 | 26.42 | +22.1% | 3.79% | -9.0% |
| 7 | Virginia | $499,300 | $1,597 | 26.05 | +20.4% | 3.84% | +6.7% |
| 8 | Tennessee | $413,200 | $1,333 | 25.83 | +19.3% | 3.87% | +10.4% |
| 9 | Kansas | $316,300 | $1,041 | 25.32 | +17.0% | 3.95% | +7.1% |
| 10 | Utah | $560,200 | $1,856 | 25.15 | +16.2% | 3.98% | -3.9% |
| 11 | Wisconsin | $361,600 | $1,217 | 24.76 | +14.4% | 4.04% | +6.5% |
| 12 | Wyoming | $464,500 | $1,568 | 24.69 | +14.1% | 4.05% | -3.9% |
| 13 | Colorado | $617,000 | $2,096 | 24.53 | +13.3% | 4.08% | +1.2% |
| 14 | Massachusetts | $688,100 | $2,356 | 24.34 | +12.5% | 4.11% | +2.2% |
| 15 | Minnesota | $372,300 | $1,275 | 24.33 | +12.4% | 4.11% | +2.6% |
| 16 | Illinois | $337,900 | $1,161 | 24.25 | +12.0% | 4.12% | +9.5% |
| 17 | New Hampshire | $537,900 | $1,864 | 24.05 | +11.1% | 4.16% | +7.7% |
| 18 | South Dakota | $346,600 | $1,237 | 23.35 | +7.9% | 4.28% | +2.6% |
| 19 | Arizona | $453,800 | $1,636 | 23.12 | +6.8% | 4.33% | +0.7% |
| 20 | Maryland | $477,300 | $1,748 | 22.75 | +5.1% | 4.40% | +2.1% |
| 21 | New Jersey | $579,900 | $2,139 | 22.59 | +4.4% | 4.43% | +0.2% |
| 22 | Georgia | $389,000 | $1,469 | 22.07 | +2.0% | 4.53% | +4.8% |
| 23 | North Dakota | $311,200 | $1,180 | 21.98 | +1.5% | 4.55% | +1.3% |
| 24 | Missouri | $297,500 | $1,138 | 21.79 | +0.7% | 4.59% | +5.5% |
| 25 | Pennsylvania | $330,200 | $1,267 | 21.72 | +0.3% | 4.60% | +8.9% |
| 26 | Nevada | $481,200 | $1,859 | 21.57 | -0.3% | 4.64% | -2.1% |
| 27 | Indiana | $287,300 | $1,111 | 21.55 | -0.4% | 4.64% | +6.9% |
| 28 | South Carolina | $394,000 | $1,535 | 21.39 | -1.2% | 4.68% | -0.3% |
| 29 | Texas | $356,100 | $1,395 | 21.27 | -1.7% | 4.70% | +1.5% |
| 30 | Maine | $439,200 | $1,730 | 21.16 | -2.2% | 4.73% | +1.4% |
| 31 | North Carolina | $397,600 | $1,567 | 21.14 | -2.3% | 4.73% | -0.8% |
| 32 | Vermont | $448,400 | $1,775 | 21.05 | -2.7% | 4.75% | +6.8% |
| 33 | Iowa | $258,700 | $1,026 | 21.01 | -2.9% | 4.76% | +12.3% |
| 34 | Ohio | $282,600 | $1,122 | 20.99 | -3.0% | 4.76% | +9.3% |
| 35 | Rhode Island | $536,900 | $2,172 | 20.60 | -4.8% | 4.85% | -0.6% |
| 36 | Nebraska | $319,100 | $1,297 | 20.50 | -5.3% | 4.88% | +5.1% |
| 37 | New Mexico | $395,500 | $1,632 | 20.20 | -6.7% | 4.95% | -8.5% |
| 38 | Arkansas | $275,500 | $1,153 | 19.91 | -8.0% | 5.02% | +4.2% |
| 39 | Alabama | $312,600 | $1,333 | 19.54 | -9.7% | 5.12% | +5.6% |
| 40 | Kentucky | $284,400 | $1,244 | 19.05 | -12.0% | 5.25% | +3.0% |
| 41 | Connecticut | $498,000 | $2,187 | 18.98 | -12.3% | 5.27% | +6.6% |
| 42 | West Virginia | $265,200 | $1,188 | 18.60 | -14.1% | 5.38% | +4.6% |
| 43 | Oklahoma | $264,600 | $1,189 | 18.54 | -14.3% | 5.39% | +3.6% |
| 44 | Alaska | $427,100 | $1,958 | 18.18 | -16.0% | 5.50% | -6.7% |
| 45 | Michigan | $297,900 | $1,368 | 18.15 | -16.1% | 5.51% | +4.2% |
| 46 | Florida | $421,500 | $1,963 | 17.89 | -17.3% | 5.59% | +2.1% |
| 47 | Delaware | $384,500 | $1,842 | 17.40 | -19.6% | 5.75% | +2.5% |
| 48 | Louisiana | $269,000 | $1,292 | 17.35 | -19.8% | 5.76% | +3.8% |
| 49 | Hawaii | $741,300 | $3,635 | 16.99 | -21.5% | 5.89% | -15.7% |
| 50 | Mississippi | $284,300 | $1,466 | 16.16 | -25.3% | 6.19% | +6.3% |
Most overvalued counties by price-to-income — top 100
A county is ranked only if its latest reported month is May 31, 2026 and it sold at least 100 homes in that month. Without that filter the top of the list is Treasure County, Montana at 31.49× and the bottom is Aleutians East Borough, Alaska at 0.17× on a $12,500 median sale price. 1,060 of the 3,073 counties we track sold fewer than 10 homes in their latest reported month (34%); Lafayette County, Arkansas recorded 1 sale at a $11,750 median. A median built on a handful of sales is not a market statistic, so those counties are shown nowhere on this page. 625 counties clear the filter.
| # | County | State | Median Sale Price | Median Household Income | Price ÷ Income | vs Median County (4.69×) | Homes Sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York County | New York | $1,450,000 | $104,553 | 13.87× | +195.7% | 698 |
| 2 | Kings County | New York | $1,050,000 | $78,548 | 13.37× | +185.1% | 489 |
| 3 | Monroe County | Florida | $1,050,000 | $82,430 | 12.74× | +171.6% | 185 |
| 4 | Bronx County | New York | $613,750 | $49,036 | 12.52× | +167.0% | 164 |
| 5 | San Francisco County | California | $1,770,000 | $141,446 | 12.51× | +166.7% | 561 |
| 6 | Summit County | Colorado | $1,237,500 | $106,255 | 11.65× | +148.4% | 111 |
| 7 | San Mateo County | California | $1,800,000 | $156,000 | 11.54× | +146.1% | 483 |
| 8 | Marin County | California | $1,600,000 | $142,785 | 11.21× | +139.0% | 285 |
| 9 | Santa Barbara County | California | $1,069,500 | $95,977 | 11.14× | +137.5% | 282 |
| 10 | Orange County | California | $1,260,000 | $113,702 | 11.08× | +136.2% | 1,830 |
| 11 | Los Angeles County | California | $940,000 | $87,760 | 10.71× | +128.4% | 4,319 |
| 12 | Santa Cruz County | California | $1,141,250 | $109,266 | 10.44× | +122.6% | 163 |
| 13 | Santa Clara County | California | $1,655,500 | $159,674 | 10.37× | +121.1% | 1,157 |
| 14 | Maui County | Hawaii | $970,000 | $95,076 | 10.20× | +117.5% | 108 |
| 15 | Monterey County | California | $957,500 | $94,486 | 10.13× | +116.0% | 221 |
| 16 | San Luis Obispo County | California | $915,000 | $93,398 | 9.80× | +109.0% | 251 |
| 17 | Coconino County | Arizona | $679,500 | $69,748 | 9.74× | +107.7% | 151 |
| 18 | Alameda County | California | $1,225,000 | $126,240 | 9.70× | +106.8% | 955 |
| 19 | Essex County | New Jersey | $725,000 | $76,712 | 9.45× | +101.5% | 466 |
| 20 | Walton County | Florida | $744,500 | $79,281 | 9.39× | +100.2% | 398 |
| 21 | Flathead County | Montana | $648,999 | $71,327 | 9.10× | +94.0% | 151 |
| 22 | San Diego County | California | $925,000 | $102,285 | 9.04× | +92.8% | 2,130 |
| 23 | Suffolk County | Massachusetts | $827,500 | $92,859 | 8.91× | +90.0% | 528 |
| 24 | Queens County | New York | $738,000 | $84,961 | 8.69× | +85.3% | 561 |
| 25 | Santa Fe County | New Mexico | $645,001 | $74,689 | 8.64× | +84.2% | 191 |
| 26 | Ventura County | California | $925,000 | $107,327 | 8.62× | +83.8% | 547 |
| 27 | Cape May County | New Jersey | $745,000 | $88,046 | 8.46× | +80.4% | 225 |
| 28 | Miami-Dade County | Florida | $570,000 | $68,694 | 8.30× | +77.0% | 1,997 |
| 29 | Sonoma County | California | $849,000 | $102,840 | 8.26× | +76.1% | 381 |
| 30 | Dare County | North Carolina | $667,500 | $81,214 | 8.22× | +75.3% | 120 |
| 31 | Napa County | California | $895,000 | $108,970 | 8.21× | +75.1% | 103 |
| 32 | Nevada County | California | $685,000 | $84,905 | 8.07× | +72.1% | 123 |
| 33 | Whatcom County | Washington | $649,000 | $80,989 | 8.01× | +70.8% | 271 |
| 34 | Gallatin County | Montana | $689,000 | $87,454 | 7.88× | +68.0% | 177 |
| 35 | Yavapai County | Arizona | $516,750 | $66,106 | 7.82× | +66.7% | 466 |
| 36 | Missoula County | Montana | $554,500 | $71,246 | 7.78× | +65.9% | 144 |
| 37 | Deschutes County | Oregon | $679,900 | $87,640 | 7.76× | +65.5% | 371 |
| 38 | Barnstable County | Massachusetts | $725,000 | $94,452 | 7.68× | +63.8% | 396 |
| 39 | Richmond County | New York | $747,850 | $98,290 | 7.61× | +62.3% | 236 |
| 40 | Williamson County | Tennessee | $992,500 | $131,202 | 7.56× | +61.2% | 496 |
| 41 | Yolo County | California | $671,500 | $88,818 | 7.56× | +61.2% | 142 |
| 42 | Hudson County | New Jersey | $675,000 | $90,032 | 7.50× | +59.9% | 327 |
| 43 | Georgetown County | South Carolina | $499,900 | $66,734 | 7.49× | +59.7% | 125 |
| 44 | Beaufort County | South Carolina | $633,115 | $84,819 | 7.46× | +59.1% | 457 |
| 45 | Island County | Washington | $659,080 | $88,358 | 7.46× | +59.1% | 105 |
| 46 | Kootenai County | Idaho | $575,000 | $77,034 | 7.46× | +59.1% | 329 |
| 47 | Charleston County | South Carolina | $625,000 | $84,320 | 7.41× | +58.0% | 801 |
| 48 | Westchester County | New York | $872,500 | $118,411 | 7.37× | +57.1% | 506 |
| 49 | King County | Washington | $894,000 | $122,148 | 7.32× | +56.1% | 2,134 |
| 50 | Oconee County | South Carolina | $440,000 | $60,193 | 7.31× | +55.9% | 123 |
| 51 | Boulder County | Colorado | $750,000 | $102,772 | 7.30× | +55.7% | 437 |
| 52 | Chatham County | North Carolina | $645,500 | $88,534 | 7.29× | +55.4% | 123 |
| 53 | Sevier County | Tennessee | $465,000 | $63,829 | 7.29× | +55.4% | 184 |
| 54 | Carteret County | North Carolina | $509,950 | $70,235 | 7.26× | +54.8% | 133 |
| 55 | Collier County | Florida | $625,000 | $86,173 | 7.25× | +54.6% | 957 |
| 56 | Essex County | Massachusetts | $717,000 | $99,431 | 7.21× | +53.7% | 569 |
| 57 | Honolulu County | Hawaii | $750,000 | $104,264 | 7.19× | +53.3% | 603 |
| 58 | Washington County | Utah | $548,874 | $76,411 | 7.18× | +53.1% | 190 |
| 59 | Skagit County | Washington | $610,140 | $85,474 | 7.14× | +52.2% | 114 |
| 60 | Union County | New Jersey | $714,000 | $100,117 | 7.13× | +52.0% | 310 |
| 61 | Buncombe County | North Carolina | $500,000 | $70,578 | 7.08× | +51.0% | 293 |
| 62 | Loudon County | Tennessee | $565,000 | $80,296 | 7.04× | +50.1% | 105 |
| 63 | Snohomish County | Washington | $760,000 | $107,982 | 7.04× | +50.1% | 859 |
| 64 | Passaic County | New Jersey | $611,000 | $87,137 | 7.01× | +49.5% | 249 |
| 65 | Washoe County | Nevada | $599,975 | $85,600 | 7.01× | +49.5% | 588 |
| 66 | Lafayette County | Mississippi | $449,900 | $64,334 | 6.99× | +49.0% | 125 |
| 67 | District of Columbia | District of Columbia | $740,000 | $106,287 | 6.96× | +48.4% | 649 |
| 68 | Camden County | Missouri | $437,000 | $62,927 | 6.94× | +48.0% | 164 |
| 69 | Denver County | Colorado | $628,750 | $91,681 | 6.86× | +46.3% | 988 |
| 70 | Riverside County | California | $615,000 | $89,672 | 6.86× | +46.3% | 2,166 |
| 71 | El Dorado County | California | $727,500 | $106,190 | 6.85× | +46.1% | 250 |
| 72 | Mohave County | Arizona | $380,000 | $55,799 | 6.81× | +45.2% | 337 |
| 73 | Richmond City County | Virginia | $426,000 | $62,671 | 6.80× | +45.0% | 304 |
| 74 | Contra Costa County | California | $849,500 | $125,727 | 6.76× | +44.1% | 900 |
| 75 | Middlesex County | Massachusetts | $850,000 | $126,779 | 6.70× | +42.9% | 1,320 |
| 76 | San Bernardino County | California | $550,000 | $82,184 | 6.69× | +42.6% | 1,423 |
| 77 | Lane County | Oregon | $462,870 | $69,311 | 6.68× | +42.4% | 308 |
| 78 | Palm Beach County | Florida | $540,000 | $81,115 | 6.66× | +42.0% | 2,330 |
| 79 | Rockland County | New York | $730,000 | $110,631 | 6.60× | +40.7% | 147 |
| 80 | New Hanover County | North Carolina | $480,000 | $72,892 | 6.59× | +40.5% | 397 |
| 81 | Jasper County | South Carolina | $416,240 | $63,503 | 6.55× | +39.7% | 113 |
| 82 | Merced County | California | $425,000 | $65,044 | 6.53× | +39.2% | 151 |
| 83 | York County | Maine | $540,000 | $82,904 | 6.51× | +38.8% | 284 |
| 84 | Clackamas County | Oregon | $650,000 | $100,360 | 6.48× | +38.2% | 474 |
| 85 | Davidson County | Tennessee | $490,000 | $75,664 | 6.48× | +38.2% | 954 |
| 86 | Butte County | California | $440,000 | $68,574 | 6.42× | +36.9% | 181 |
| 87 | Orleans Parish | Louisiana | $355,000 | $55,339 | 6.42× | +36.9% | 376 |
| 88 | Bristol County | Massachusetts | $540,000 | $84,198 | 6.41× | +36.7% | 342 |
| 89 | Bergen County | New Jersey | $790,000 | $123,715 | 6.39× | +36.2% | 534 |
| 90 | Lee County | Alabama | $390,000 | $61,123 | 6.38× | +36.0% | 300 |
| 91 | Cumberland County | Maine | $590,000 | $92,983 | 6.35× | +35.4% | 353 |
| 92 | Broward County | Florida | $470,000 | $74,534 | 6.31× | +34.5% | 2,139 |
| 93 | Jackson County | Oregon | $449,500 | $71,443 | 6.29× | +34.1% | 263 |
| 94 | Orange County | North Carolina | $555,000 | $88,553 | 6.27× | +33.7% | 158 |
| 95 | Multnomah County | Oregon | $538,000 | $86,247 | 6.24× | +33.0% | 864 |
| 96 | Ada County | Idaho | $553,000 | $88,907 | 6.22× | +32.6% | 1,074 |
| 97 | San Joaquin County | California | $550,000 | $88,531 | 6.21× | +32.4% | 417 |
| 98 | Pender County | North Carolina | $476,627 | $76,838 | 6.20× | +32.2% | 142 |
| 99 | Washington County | Rhode Island | $635,000 | $102,478 | 6.20× | +32.2% | 119 |
| 100 | Larimer County | Colorado | $565,000 | $91,364 | 6.18× | +31.8% | 615 |
Least stretched counties — bottom 25
Same pool, same filter, ranked from the lowest price-to-income upward. These are the counties where the median home costs the fewest years of the median local income.
| # | County | State | Median Sale Price | Median Household Income | Price ÷ Income | vs Median County (4.69×) | Homes Sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macon County | Illinois | $150,000 | $62,449 | 2.40× | -48.8% | 121 |
| 2 | Tazewell County | Illinois | $186,750 | $76,704 | 2.43× | -48.2% | 164 |
| 3 | Rock Island County | Illinois | $165,900 | $66,768 | 2.48× | -47.1% | 151 |
| 4 | Peoria County | Illinois | $180,000 | $64,938 | 2.77× | -40.9% | 239 |
| 5 | Sangamon County | Illinois | $210,000 | $74,114 | 2.83× | -39.7% | 245 |
| 6 | Schuylkill County | Pennsylvania | $196,000 | $66,901 | 2.93× | -37.5% | 125 |
| 7 | Linn County | Iowa | $225,000 | $76,421 | 2.94× | -37.3% | 323 |
| 8 | Calhoun County | Michigan | $185,200 | $60,385 | 3.07× | -34.5% | 118 |
| 9 | Scott County | Iowa | $235,000 | $76,363 | 3.08× | -34.3% | 226 |
| 10 | Kanawha County | West Virginia | $183,000 | $58,887 | 3.11× | -33.7% | 133 |
| 11 | Lake County | Ohio | $243,000 | $77,952 | 3.12× | -33.5% | 247 |
| 12 | Howard County | Indiana | $195,000 | $62,496 | 3.12× | -33.5% | 114 |
| 13 | St. Clair County | Illinois | $221,834 | $70,178 | 3.16× | -32.6% | 312 |
| 14 | Delaware County | Indiana | $179,900 | $56,932 | 3.16× | -32.6% | 121 |
| 15 | Canadian County | Oklahoma | $270,000 | $85,427 | 3.16× | -32.6% | 336 |
| 16 | Guadalupe County | Texas | $298,290 | $93,776 | 3.18× | -32.2% | 331 |
| 17 | Broome County | New York | $196,500 | $61,059 | 3.22× | -31.3% | 138 |
| 18 | Westmoreland County | Pennsylvania | $234,000 | $72,468 | 3.23× | -31.1% | 283 |
| 19 | Oneida County | New York | $225,010 | $68,819 | 3.27× | -30.3% | 113 |
| 20 | Trumbull County | Ohio | $180,500 | $55,088 | 3.28× | -30.1% | 170 |
| 21 | Madison County | Illinois | $245,000 | $74,800 | 3.28× | -30.1% | 290 |
| 22 | Livingston Parish | Louisiana | $259,900 | $78,617 | 3.31× | -29.4% | 165 |
| 23 | Niagara County | New York | $224,900 | $67,809 | 3.32× | -29.2% | 101 |
| 24 | Beaver County | Pennsylvania | $233,000 | $70,156 | 3.32× | -29.2% | 145 |
| 25 | Ascension Parish | Louisiana | $306,281 | $92,266 | 3.32× | -29.2% | 156 |
Method, limits, and common questions
- The formula. overvaluation % = 100 × (region ratio ÷ median of all non-null state ratios − 1). Nothing else. Every number in the "vs median" columns is that arithmetic, on data you can download yourself. The state price-to-income median is 5.26× (n=50), the state price-to-rent median is 21.64 years (n=50), and the county price-to-income median is 4.69× (n=625, filtered pool).
- Median, not mean. Both distributions are right-skewed. The state price-to-income mean is 5.44× against a median of 5.26×, 3.4% higher; the price-to-rent mean is 22.33 against a median of 21.64, 3.2% higher. Benchmarking against the mean would quietly shrink every overvaluation figure on this page by that much. For cross-checking, the pipeline ships those same means in data/national/index.json as 5.44 and 22.33.
- Where the threshold band comes from. The 3.5× / 5.0× / 7.0× cut points in the last column of the first table are judgment thresholds, not a benchmark computed from this data and not an input to any percentage on this page. They are the same cut points already hard-coded in our crash-risk model, which cites IMF Global Housing Watch and Robert Shiller’s long-run housing series. We restate them here so the band is legible at a glance; the ranking itself does not depend on them.
- Why there is no long-run anchor. We looked. The data behind this site carries a long-term average for inventory and for days-on-market, and nothing at all for price-to-income or price-to-rent levels. The longest price-to-rent history reconstructable from it is 23 months, because that is how far back the rent series goes; there is no state-level income time series at all, so a historical price-to-income level cannot be rebuilt. Rather than import someone else's constant and present it as ours, the benchmark is the median of the current snapshot. That is why this page never says "fair value" or "% overvalued" without naming what it is measured against.
- The 23-month column. For each state we recompute the ratio month by month as trend price ÷ (that month's ZORI rent × 12) and average the result. Every rent month found a matching price month on 0 of the 50 states that carry a rent series, and on 1 of 50 the final month reproduces the published ratio to the two decimals the pipeline stores it at — which is how we know it is the same derivation. Window: 2024-07-31 to 2026-05-31. 23 months. Not "historical", not "long-run".
- The county filter, stated plainly. Only counties reporting May 31, 2026 with at least 100 homes sold are ranked; 223 counties are on an older reporting month and are excluded rather than silently mixed into a 2026 table. County price-to-income uses Census ACS 5-year table B19013 for income, which is a 5-year pooled estimate against a single-month price, so treat small differences between adjacent counties as noise.
- There is no county price-to-rent ratio on this page because there is no county rent data. Rent is state-only (Zillow ZORI metro means). We would rather omit the column than approximate it. For the same reason there is no city ranking here: every city file divides city price by state rent, which produces a price ranking wearing a rent label.
- Gross yield is computed, not read. The stored rentYield field in our own state index was 12× too large — it divided 12 by an already-annual ratio. This page computes 1 ÷ years-of-rent instead. California, for example, is 3.19% gross, not the 38% the stored field implies. The stored field is fixed in the pipeline as of this release and corrects on the next weekly refresh; this page computes the value directly regardless.
- What we left out. The site also carries a buy-versus-rent multiple, but it is the price-to-rent ratio rescaled by a hard-coded 6.5% mortgage rate, so it is the same number twice. Our own national file puts the 30-year average at 6.58% as of July 23, 2026 (Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US)). It is not on this page.
- Neither ratio is a forecast. A high ratio says a market is expensive relative to what people there earn or pay in rent. It does not say prices will fall, and this page makes no such claim. If you want the downside-risk model, that is the crash-risk methodology, which is a different thing built from different inputs.
- What does "overvalued" mean on this page? overvaluation % = 100 × (region ratio ÷ median of all non-null state ratios − 1). The benchmark is the median of the 50 states that carry a ratio in the source data, recomputed every time the site builds. It is a comparison to the median state today, not a prediction and not a fair-value estimate.
- Which state is the most overvalued right now? On price-to-income, California at 9.21× median household income, +75.1% versus the median state (5.26×). On price-to-rent, New York at 32.96 years of gross rent to buy the median home, +52.3% versus the median state (21.64). Both are as of May 31, 2026.
- Is a high price-to-rent ratio bad? It means buying costs more per dollar of rent, which mechanically means a lower gross rental yield: a state at 30 years of rent yields about 3.3% gross, one at 16 years yields about 6.3%. That matters a lot to a landlord and much less to an owner-occupier. On its own it is not a crash signal, and this page does not present it as one.
- Do you publish a county price-to-rent ratio? No. There is no county rent series in any of the public datasets we consume. Rent here comes from the Zillow Observed Rent Index, averaged across the metros inside each state, so the finest honest grain is the state. We would rather leave the column out than divide a county price by a state rent and call it a county ratio.
- Data as of May 31, 2026 (Redfin reporting month). Pipeline last run July 30, 2026 — that is when the files were built, not what the market figures describe. Related: county distress pressure, listing velocity decay, seller motivation, HomeStats vs Reventure, all sources.
Sources: Redfin Data Center (median sale price, homes sold, reporting month), Zillow Observed Rent Index (metro CSV, averaged per state), U.S. Census ACS (median household income, table B19013), Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) (30-year mortgage average, quoted once for context). The threshold band cites IMF Global Housing Watch and Robert Shiller’s long-run housing series; those are judgment cut points, not measurements from this data. Every ratio in the state tables is recomputable from the free state JSON API, and the county price-to-income ratios from the per-state places endpoint (for example /api/states/california/places.json).