County Distress Pressure Watch
PropertyRadar charges $99–$299 a month for distressed-listing pipelines. We don't have NOD / NOS recorder feeds, but the composite question — where is forced-sale pressure building? — is answerable from publicly-published HPI drawdown, national delinquency, inventory surplus, DOM trends, and the demographic concentration of 65+ owners. Below is that composite, free.
Highest distress pressure La Paz County Arizona · Score 100 · Inventory +82% vs avg
Counties in severe distress (≥80) 117 209 more in "high" tier (70–79)
Counties tracked 3071 with current Redfin sales + ACS demographics
Top 75 counties — highest distress pressure
Distress builds slowly. Read this list as a 12–18 month watch — counties combining HPI drawdown, swelling inventory, rising DOM, and aging owner population are where forced-sale supply will land first.
| # | County | Score | Tier | Median Price | Price YoY | Inventory | DOM Spike | Boomer Owner % | 65+ Owner % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Paz County Arizona | 100 | Severe | $350,000 | -27.1% | +82% | +44% | 44.5% | 45% |
| 2 | Hinsdale County Colorado | 100 | Severe | $190,000 | -64.8% | +49% | +423% | 43.3% | 43% |
| 3 | Jackson County Colorado | 100 | Severe | $165,000 | -33.3% | +64% | +91% | 41.6% | 42% |
| 4 | Owsley County Kentucky | 100 | Severe | $100,000 | — | +150% | +162% | 26.4% | 26% |
| 5 | Webster County Kentucky | 100 | Severe | $214,000 | +217.0% | +154% | +72% | 28.3% | 28% |
| 6 | Greene County North Carolina | 100 | Severe | $269,500 | +84.9% | +138% | +141% | 25.6% | 26% |
| 7 | Jeff Davis County Texas | 100 | Severe | $382,000 | +62.6% | +25% | +315% | 56.3% | 56% |
| 8 | Kimble County Texas | 100 | Severe | $625,000 | +410.2% | +57% | +102% | 44.5% | 45% |
| 9 | Newton County Texas | 100 | Severe | $99,500 | -28.9% | +182% | +94% | 33.1% | 33% |
| 10 | Sabine County Texas | 100 | Severe | $290,000 | +93.5% | +288% | -24% | 40.5% | 40% |
| 11 | Wahkiakum County Washington | 99 | Severe | $452,000 | -28.1% | +68% | +43% | 42.8% | 43% |
| 12 | Thomas County Kansas | 97 | Severe | $175,000 | — | +214% | +41% | 23.8% | 24% |
| 13 | Mason County Texas | 97 | Severe | $185,000 | -40.4% | +58% | +94% | 40.7% | 41% |
| 14 | Pawnee County Nebraska | 96 | Severe | $240,844 | +270.5% | +78% | +477% | 37.1% | 37% |
| 15 | Terrell County Texas | 96 | Severe | $115,000 | — | +71% | -1% | 50.5% | 51% |
| 16 | Piute County Utah | 96 | Severe | $295,000 | +11.3% | +101% | -61% | 57.3% | 57% |
| 17 | Cameron Parish Louisiana | 94 | Severe | $260,000 | -22.4% | +101% | +87% | 28.4% | 28% |
| 18 | Hamilton County Texas | 94 | Severe | $255,000 | -33.8% | +52% | +83% | 39.6% | 40% |
| 19 | Cleburne County Arkansas | 93 | Severe | $347,500 | +21.9% | +79% | +54% | 35.6% | 36% |
| 20 | Dolores County Colorado | 93 | Severe | $538,240 | — | +31% | +44% | 44.8% | 45% |
| 21 | Sumter County Florida | 93 | Severe | $345,000 | +4.5% | +17% | -12% | 65.5% | 65% |
| 22 | McMullen County Texas | 93 | Severe | $659,000 | — | +50% | +168% | 38.7% | 39% |
| 23 | Wayne County Utah | 93 | Severe | $401,500 | -29.3% | +106% | +54% | 27.0% | 27% |
| 24 | Huerfano County Colorado | 92 | Severe | $250,000 | +0.0% | +17% | +73% | 44.2% | 44% |
| 25 | Pickett County Tennessee | 92 | Severe | $203,550 | +39.1% | +67% | +57% | 35.9% | 36% |
| 26 | Goliad County Texas | 92 | Severe | $316,000 | +1.9% | +69% | +102% | 32.8% | 33% |
| 27 | Hickman County Kentucky | 91 | Severe | $125,000 | +101.6% | +90% | +65% | 31.9% | 32% |
| 28 | Pamlico County North Carolina | 91 | Severe | $382,500 | +23.4% | +78% | +15% | 41.5% | 42% |
| 29 | Mills County Texas | 91 | Severe | $239,500 | +84.2% | +31% | +293% | 42.5% | 43% |
| 30 | Edwards County Kansas | 90 | Severe | $80,000 | — | +79% | +84% | 32.2% | 32% |
| 31 | Yancey County North Carolina | 90 | Severe | $337,500 | +3.1% | +66% | +71% | 32.6% | 33% |
| 32 | Martin County Texas | 90 | Severe | $302,000 | — | +120% | +217% | 16.7% | 17% |
| 33 | Pacific County Washington | 90 | Severe | $391,900 | +9.8% | +77% | -6% | 43.9% | 44% |
| 34 | Citrus County Florida | 89 | Severe | $280,000 | +0.9% | +57% | +2% | 46.8% | 47% |
| 35 | Clinch County Georgia | 89 | Severe | $152,500 | -64.5% | +97% | +95% | 22.6% | 23% |
| 36 | Nance County Nebraska | 89 | Severe | $83,950 | — | +85% | +111% | 27.8% | 28% |
| 37 | Grant County Oklahoma | 89 | Severe | $164,500 | +37.7% | +89% | +37% | 32.0% | 32% |
| 38 | Clay County Tennessee | 89 | Severe | $315,000 | -25.9% | +51% | +56% | 37.1% | 37% |
| 39 | Edwards County Texas | 89 | Severe | $55,000 | — | -8% | +107% | 50.8% | 51% |
| 40 | Custer County Colorado | 88 | Severe | $357,000 | -45.3% | +64% | +31% | 33.4% | 33% |
| 41 | Routt County Colorado | 88 | Severe | $1,547,500 | +75.5% | +80% | +96% | 22.1% | 22% |
| 42 | Fergus County Montana | 88 | Severe | $77,500 | — | +119% | +12% | 29.0% | 29% |
| 43 | Brunswick County North Carolina | 88 | Severe | $396,900 | +1.8% | +59% | +24% | 41.9% | 42% |
| 44 | Lake County Oregon | 88 | Severe | $275,000 | +369.7% | +64% | +66% | 30.3% | 30% |
| 45 | Real County Texas | 88 | Severe | $442,000 | — | +67% | -37% | 53.9% | 54% |
| 46 | Jefferson County Washington | 88 | Severe | $585,000 | -14.6% | +99% | -46% | 45.5% | 46% |
| 47 | Ness County Kansas | 87 | Severe | $240,000 | — | +131% | -9% | 31.4% | 31% |
| 48 | Teton County Montana | 87 | Severe | $401,184 | -11.2% | +68% | +152% | 30.7% | 31% |
| 49 | Richardson County Nebraska | 87 | Severe | $45,000 | — | +77% | +150% | 28.9% | 29% |
| 50 | Martin County North Carolina | 87 | Severe | $183,496 | +20.3% | +55% | +80% | 32.5% | 33% |
| 51 | Ottawa County Oklahoma | 87 | Severe | $195,000 | +131.5% | +91% | +81% | 24.2% | 24% |
| 52 | Clay County Georgia | 86 | Severe | $165,000 | — | +18% | +193% | 41.6% | 42% |
| 53 | Montgomery County Iowa | 86 | Severe | $127,500 | -32.5% | +71% | +93% | 29.2% | 29% |
| 54 | Alleghany County North Carolina | 86 | Severe | $290,000 | -22.7% | +55% | +37% | 37.5% | 38% |
| 55 | Jones County North Carolina | 86 | Severe | $279,000 | +23.5% | +59% | +92% | 30.7% | 31% |
| 56 | Angelina County Texas | 86 | Severe | $275,000 | +2.3% | +120% | +21% | 21.5% | 21% |
| 57 | Okanogan County Washington | 86 | Severe | $340,000 | -19.4% | +86% | +16% | 31.1% | 31% |
| 58 | Quitman County Georgia | 85 | Severe | $190,000 | — | +5% | +371% | 44.4% | 44% |
| 59 | Hodgeman County Kansas | 85 | Severe | $100,000 | — | +57% | +68% | 33.8% | 34% |
| 60 | Mahnomen County Minnesota | 85 | Severe | $227,000 | +42.3% | +81% | +95% | 25.1% | 25% |
| 61 | Claiborne County Mississippi | 85 | Severe | $112,500 | -6.3% | +58% | +70% | 32.6% | 33% |
| 62 | Frontier County Nebraska | 85 | Severe | $141,400 | -14.3% | +53% | +76% | 33.5% | 34% |
| 63 | Fayette County Texas | 85 | Severe | $275,000 | -16.7% | +35% | +101% | 35.0% | 35% |
| 64 | Hemphill County Texas | 85 | Severe | $147,000 | -38.8% | +273% | -20% | 23.1% | 23% |
| 65 | Calaveras County California | 84 | Severe | $494,000 | +11.4% | +110% | -47% | 38.5% | 39% |
| 66 | Franklin County Nebraska | 84 | Severe | $79,000 | +21.5% | +81% | +21% | 34.4% | 34% |
| 67 | Northampton County North Carolina | 84 | Severe | $149,000 | -71.7% | +66% | +32% | 34.5% | 34% |
| 68 | Van Buren County Tennessee | 84 | Severe | $234,000 | -7.7% | +39% | +73% | 34.4% | 34% |
| 69 | Brantley County Georgia | 83 | Severe | $247,500 | -3.7% | +46% | +70% | 30.6% | 31% |
| 70 | Union County Georgia | 83 | Severe | $449,500 | +19.9% | +57% | -9% | 44.7% | 45% |
| 71 | Huron County Michigan | 83 | Severe | $190,000 | +34.4% | +51% | +69% | 34.7% | 35% |
| 72 | Chouteau County Montana | 83 | Severe | $230,000 | +0.0% | +53% | +81% | 30.1% | 30% |
| 73 | Guadalupe County New Mexico | 83 | Severe | $26,000 | -62.9% | +35% | +146% | 33.7% | 34% |
| 74 | Quay County New Mexico | 83 | Severe | $199,500 | +353.4% | +54% | +45% | 32.9% | 33% |
| 75 | Columbus County North Carolina | 83 | Severe | $255,000 | +16.7% | +51% | +80% | 30.0% | 30% |
Most resilient counties — lowest distress pressure
Tight inventory, falling DOM, strong HPI growth, younger owner mix. These markets will hold prices longest under macro stress.
| # | County | Score | Tier | Median Price | Price YoY | Inventory | DOM Spike | Boomer Owner % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleutians West Census Area Alaska | 2 | Resilient | $480,000 | — | -63% | -91% | 11.7% |
| 2 | North Slope Borough Alaska | 6 | Resilient | $385,000 | — | -61% | -91% | 15.0% |
| 3 | Scott County Kansas | 7 | Resilient | $190,000 | -4.5% | -66% | -80% | 17.2% |
| 4 | Dickey County North Dakota | 9 | Resilient | $105,950 | — | -76% | -75% | 23.9% |
| 5 | Richland County Montana | 9 | Resilient | $322,950 | -18.2% | -77% | -88% | 20.5% |
| 6 | Wabash County Illinois | 10 | Resilient | $152,450 | +509.8% | -73% | -86% | 27.0% |
| 7 | Lawrence County Illinois | 13 | Resilient | $158,750 | +13.4% | -64% | -73% | 27.5% |
| 8 | Lea County New Mexico | 14 | Resilient | $279,950 | +2.9% | -59% | -43% | 17.3% |
| 9 | Seward County Kansas | 14 | Resilient | $48,000 | -71.6% | -36% | -52% | 16.0% |
| 10 | Wayne County Nebraska | 15 | Resilient | $164,978 | -26.7% | -68% | -50% | 24.5% |
| 11 | Elliott County Kentucky | 15 | Resilient | $340,000 | — | -82% | -73% | 31.2% |
| 12 | Sherman County Kansas | 15 | Resilient | $140,000 | — | -50% | -60% | 21.3% |
| 13 | Geary County Kansas | 15 | Resilient | $235,000 | +17.5% | -23% | -48% | 12.3% |
| 14 | Pierce County Nebraska | 16 | Resilient | $330,000 | +14.8% | -77% | -39% | 25.6% |
| 15 | Kingman County Kansas | 16 | Resilient | $152,000 | -1.9% | -54% | -65% | 23.1% |
| 16 | Putnam County West Virginia | 17 | Resilient | $282,450 | -13.0% | -33% | -54% | 26.3% |
| 17 | Pendleton County Kentucky | 17 | Resilient | $195,000 | -3.5% | -46% | -51% | 23.4% |
| 18 | Glascock County Georgia | 17 | Resilient | $175,000 | -25.5% | -63% | -69% | 22.3% |
| 19 | Dallam County Texas | 18 | Resilient | $160,000 | +6.7% | -33% | -40% | 12.7% |
| 20 | Essex County New Jersey | 18 | Resilient | $725,000 | +3.9% | -14% | -36% | 13.3% |
| 21 | Mitchell County Kansas | 18 | Resilient | $50,000 | -68.3% | -49% | -75% | 23.4% |
| 22 | Taylor County Georgia | 18 | Resilient | $195,000 | +77.4% | -62% | -41% | 21.1% |
| 23 | Columbia County Georgia | 18 | Resilient | $361,500 | -3.1% | -59% | -59% | 22.1% |
| 24 | Lake and Peninsula Borough Alaska | 18 | Resilient | $275,000 | — | -20% | -53% | 15.8% |
| 25 | Jackson County West Virginia | 19 | Resilient | $285,000 | +115.1% | -35% | -62% | 29.3% |
| 26 | Cabell County West Virginia | 19 | Resilient | $195,500 | -2.3% | -17% | -73% | 23.6% |
| 27 | Taylor County Texas | 19 | Resilient | $289,900 | +8.4% | -46% | -58% | 18.9% |
| 28 | Sioux County North Dakota | 19 | Resilient | $1,200,000 | — | — | -47% | 11.7% |
| 29 | Saline County Kansas | 19 | Resilient | $214,000 | +4.4% | -42% | -45% | 21.1% |
| 30 | Riley County Kansas | 19 | Resilient | $311,950 | +12.6% | -9% | -51% | 12.8% |
Method & honest limits
- This isn't a foreclosure feed. True NOD / NOS / lis pendens require county recorder scraping. We don't run that. PropertyRadar / ATTOM / DataTree do, and that's why they charge.
- Valuation stretch is not one of the inputs. Price-to-income sits outside this composite, so a county can score low here and still be expensive against local incomes. That comparison is ranked separately as the most overvalued housing markets by state and county.
- HPI drawdown weighted heavily. The 2007–2009 cycle showed peak-to-trough HPI drawdown leads forced-sale supply by 18-24 months.
- Boomer-owner concentration. ACS B25007 data + ownership rates indicate that markets with 25%+ boomer-aged owners face an estate-sale + health-event supply pipeline that demographics make unavoidable.
- State-level HPI. FHFA quarterly HPI is state-grain only for free; sub-state HPI drawdown signals require paid data. Our county scores all share the parent-state HPI signal.
- National delinquency rate. FRED DRSFRMACBS gives the U.S. baseline — sub-state mortgage delinquency requires MBA NDS or CoreLogic LP (paid).
Sources: FHFA House Price Index via FRED, FRED DRSFRMACBS, Redfin Data Center, U.S. Census ACS B25007. Methodology composed by HomeStats.