Listing Velocity Decay Tracker

Sellers weaken before prices fall. This page composites four Redfin Data Center signals — price-drop share, days-on-market spike, inventory surplus, and sale-to-list gap — into a single 0-to-100 city score. Cities scoring 65+ are where buyers have leverage today, regardless of whether the headline median price has caught up.

Sharpest velocity decay (city) Geronimo, Texas Score 100 · Price drops on 91% of listings · DOM +34% vs avg
Cities in severe decay (≥80) 292 out of 4754 cities tracked (≥10 sales)
Cities still balanced (45-54) 1110 neither buyer nor seller has leverage

Top 100 cities — sharpest velocity decay (buyer leverage)

Sellers are softening fastest in these cities. The score outpaces headline median-price changes by about 2-3 months.

# City Score Tier Median Price Price Drops DOM Spike Inventory Surplus Sales
1 Geronimo Texas 100 Severe decay $223,304 91% +34% +32% 14
2 Storm Lake Iowa 100 Severe decay $168,000 38% +45% +64% 11
3 Sulphur Springs Texas 100 Severe decay $249,975 36% +62% +61% 10
4 Washington Court House Ohio 100 Severe decay $201,450 36% +44% +51% 18
5 Pleasanton Texas 99 Severe decay $322,500 38% +97% +38% 12
6 Barrett Texas 98 Severe decay $253,340 62% +9% +9% 18
7 Greenville Mississippi 98 Severe decay $134,900 20% +59% +1% 17
8 Hockessin Delaware 98 Severe decay $715,000 50% +52% +67% 15
9 Mill Creek East Washington 98 Severe decay $925,000 48% +94% +155% 23
10 Mountlake Terrace Washington 98 Severe decay $675,000 61% +61% +96% 18
11 Noble Oklahoma 98 Severe decay $217,684 41% +114% +44% 15
12 Northlake South Carolina 98 Severe decay $300,000 36% +81% +79% 12
13 Center Point Alabama 97 Severe decay $116,750 27% +100% +12% 10
14 Lauderdale Lakes Florida 97 Severe decay $125,000 16% +81% +45% 24
15 Rocky Mount North Carolina 97 Severe decay $230,471 32% +84% +59% 44
16 Stanwood Washington 97 Severe decay $659,900 52% +110% +91% 11
17 Fortville Indiana 96 Severe decay $310,000 53% +40% +47% 21
18 Holden Beach North Carolina 96 Severe decay $1,285,000 27% +60% +76% 13
19 Steamboat Springs Colorado 96 Severe decay $1,946,250 22% +136% +50% 32
20 Canton Illinois 95 Severe decay $120,000 27% +54% +41% 17
21 Kingsgate Washington 95 Severe decay $1,000,000 53% +51% +74% 11
22 Paris Texas 95 Severe decay $159,950 37% +48% +3% 22
23 Fairmont Minnesota 94 Severe decay $146,926 29% +56% +77% 18
24 Mays Chapel Maryland 94 Severe decay $565,000 48% +46% +68% 21
25 Ottawa Hills Ohio 94 Severe decay $378,450 88% -19% +95% 10
26 Oxon Hill Maryland 94 Severe decay $338,500 27% +96% +50% 10
27 Salem New Jersey 94 Severe decay $165,500 28% +72% +49% 10
28 Seven Lakes North Carolina 94 Severe decay $450,000 39% +33% +56% 17
29 Bay Minette Alabama 93 Severe decay $189,880 45% +195% +8% 12
30 Destrehan Louisiana 93 Severe decay $308,000 32% +126% +34% 12
31 Sterling Colorado 93 Severe decay $281,750 28% +19% +13% 10
32 Wrightsville Beach North Carolina 93 Severe decay $1,550,000 17% +276% +55% 13
33 Ashland Ohio 92 Severe decay $212,750 34% +124% +43% 18
34 Binghamton New York 92 Severe decay $159,000 25% +126% +79% 44
35 Browns Mills New Jersey 92 Severe decay $297,500 31% +60% +48% 10
36 Fremont Ohio 92 Severe decay $150,000 74% +58% -4% 13
37 Scappoose Oregon 92 Severe decay $497,700 41% +102% +73% 10
38 South Pasadena Florida 92 Severe decay $245,000 35% +59% +16% 15
39 Union Hill-Novelty Hill Washington 92 Severe decay $1,597,500 33% +96% +161% 28
40 Ardmore Oklahoma 91 Severe decay $210,000 31% +38% +27% 38
41 Bayshore Gardens Florida 91 Severe decay $190,000 30% +76% +9% 17
42 Hutto Texas 91 Severe decay $340,500 37% +43% +38% 72
43 Laguna California 91 Severe decay $554,000 39% +58% +50% 24
44 Lakeland Highlands Florida 91 Severe decay $450,000 44% +100% +25% 11
45 Marlton Maryland 91 Severe decay $411,500 38% +55% +53% 12
46 Newton Iowa 91 Severe decay $189,000 36% +44% +51% 25
47 Oak Grove Kentucky 91 Severe decay $230,000 26% +59% +79% 17
48 Paradise Valley Arizona 91 Severe decay $4,700,000 27% +48% +19% 33
49 Seaside Heights New Jersey 91 Severe decay $930,000 24% +85% +41% 11
50 South Gate Ridge Florida 91 Severe decay $385,000 42% +104% -2% 10
51 St. James North Carolina 91 Severe decay $632,250 27% +83% +47% 18
52 Vineyards Florida 91 Severe decay $525,000 28% +82% +14% 16
53 Belleair Florida 90 Severe decay $479,900 30% +10% +51% 13
54 Edwards Colorado 90 Severe decay $2,625,000 17% +104% +48% 17
55 Four Square Mile Colorado 90 Severe decay $475,450 44% +67% +13% 24
56 Goldsboro North Carolina 90 Severe decay $217,000 33% +37% +41% 26
57 Oskaloosa Iowa 90 Severe decay $177,450 40% +45% +31% 14
58 Ozark Alabama 90 Severe decay $198,900 21% +26% +36% 16
59 Port Arthur Texas 90 Severe decay $270,000 31% +23% -31% 15
60 Roanoke Rapids North Carolina 90 Severe decay $194,500 18% +130% +70% 14
61 Whitemarsh Island Georgia 90 Severe decay $293,500 26% +58% +73% 11
62 Wilmington North Carolina 90 Severe decay $487,038 26% +61% +47% 184
63 Chesterbrook Pennsylvania 89 Severe decay $372,500 27% +50% +67% 10
64 Clearbrook Park New Jersey 89 Severe decay $338,750 35% +33% +45% 14
65 Clearbrook New Jersey 89 Severe decay $338,750 35% +33% +45% 14
66 Corbin Kentucky 89 Severe decay $198,000 42% -2% +72% 11
67 Dawsonville Georgia 89 Severe decay $381,000 21% +109% +91% 10
68 Dothan Alabama 89 Severe decay $244,200 21% +65% +37% 78
69 Eden North Carolina 89 Severe decay $196,990 37% +87% +15% 31
70 Festus Missouri 89 Severe decay $283,000 45% +51% +34% 19
71 Henderson North Carolina 89 Severe decay $195,000 28% +58% +42% 13
72 Midland Michigan 89 Severe decay $333,000 46% +91% +26% 13
73 Newport Coast California 89 Severe decay $8,292,500 23% +58% +5% 12
74 Ridgeland Mississippi 89 Severe decay $401,000 45% +84% -1% 10
75 Valley Falls South Carolina 89 Severe decay $293,000 65% +7% +79% 15
76 Winfield Kansas 89 Severe decay $99,750 27% +32% +5% 12
77 Aubrey Texas 88 Severe decay $297,975 35% +37% +27% 18
78 Belle Chasse Louisiana 88 Severe decay $425,000 27% +63% +29% 12
79 Havelock North Carolina 88 Severe decay $250,000 20% +96% +84% 13
80 Jacksonville North Carolina 88 Severe decay $251,500 24% +46% +56% 50
81 North Bend Oregon 88 Severe decay $332,500 39% +64% +25% 14
82 Oak Park California 88 Severe decay $1,160,000 42% +17% +58% 13
83 Pinehurst North Carolina 88 Severe decay $600,000 22% +44% +81% 61
84 Sans Souci South Carolina 88 Severe decay $242,500 25% +63% +58% 10
85 Seymour Indiana 88 Severe decay $210,000 48% +12% +55% 27
86 Shamokin Pennsylvania 88 Severe decay $56,250 20% -20% +77% 10
87 Shively Kentucky 88 Severe decay $220,000 36% +50% +41% 14
88 Boiling Spring Lakes North Carolina 87 Severe decay $315,000 26% +84% +87% 19
89 Edgemoor Delaware 87 Severe decay $230,000 29% +68% +47% 13
90 Emerald Isle North Carolina 87 Severe decay $816,000 26% +29% +71% 22
91 Fruitville Florida 87 Severe decay $352,000 56% +56% -19% 14
92 Inverness Florida 87 Severe decay $230,000 63% +64% -20% 27
93 North Creek Washington 87 Severe decay $1,010,000 42% +25% +104% 55
94 North Lynnwood Washington 87 Severe decay $669,990 43% +27% +76% 31
95 Pilot Point Texas 87 Severe decay $308,240 57% +23% +24% 32
96 Pine Bluff Arkansas 87 Severe decay $111,500 26% +47% +22% 22
97 Port Royal South Carolina 87 Severe decay $405,000 26% +39% +50% 13
98 Red Wing Minnesota 87 Severe decay $266,000 45% +116% +17% 27
99 Rio Verde Arizona 87 Severe decay $595,000 34% +64% -2% 15
100 Rome Georgia 87 Severe decay $237,500 29% +53% +7% 37

Strongest seller markets — least decay

Cities where listings still move fast and price drops are rare. Tight inventory below long-term average compounds the seller advantage.

# City Score Tier Median Price Price Drops DOM Spike Inventory Surplus Sales
1 Braddock Virginia 15 Seller market $1,318,367 -86% -47% 11
2 Scarsdale New York 16 Seller market $2,612,500 4% -52% -43% 20
3 Brook Park Ohio 16 Seller market $232,000 -64% -57% 25
4 Rittman Ohio 19 Seller market $206,700 -89% -34% 11
5 Old Forge Pennsylvania 21 Seller market $251,501 14% -64% -51% 13
6 Morris Plains New Jersey 21 Seller market $732,500 10% -51% -30% 12
7 Elsmere Kentucky 21 Seller market $239,450 -57% -59% 12
8 New Britain Connecticut 22 Seller market $385,000 11% -65% -26% 48
9 Centerville Minnesota 22 Seller market $407,500 -67% -36% 10
10 Newington Connecticut 24 Seller market $385,000 15% -48% -29% 24
11 Montclair California 24 Seller market $554,000 8% -67% -48% 12
12 Hillsborough California 24 Seller market $5,800,000 17% -56% -27% 15
13 Ely Iowa 24 Seller market $371,900 -46% -93% 11
14 Petersburg Illinois 25 Seller market $155,000 -47% -52% 10
15 Marshall Minnesota 25 Seller market $194,500 8% -77% -20% 14
16 Louisville Ohio 25 Seller market $222,500 8% -64% -53% 13
17 Kenmore New York 25 Seller market $297,100 11% -41% -25% 13
18 Grosse Pointe Park Michigan 25 Seller market $550,000 -52% -27% 11
19 Chelsea Michigan 25 Seller market $355,900 -45% -34% 10
20 Roscoe Illinois 26 Seller market $335,000 -39% -36% 19
21 Lake Pocotopaug Connecticut 26 Seller market $375,000 12% -73% -14% 11
22 Farmington New York 26 Seller market $330,000 -40% -6% 13
23 Preakness New Jersey 27 Seller market $672,500 4% -62% +1% 15
24 North Madison Ohio 27 Seller market $167,000 13% -86% -25% 12
25 Groves Texas 27 Seller market $199,900 23% -63% -49% 17
26 Upper Montclair New Jersey 28 Seller market $1,364,000 13% -67% -4% 20
27 Riverview Michigan 28 Seller market $185,000 33% -61% -51% 10
28 Malta New York 28 Seller market $450,000 29% -72% -38% 13
29 Clifton Park New York 28 Seller market $475,000 7% -41% -18% 23
30 Wilton New York 29 Seller market $660,000 17% -59% -9% 21

How the score is built

  • Baseline 50. A city with average price-drop share, no DOM movement, balanced inventory, and a normal sale-to-list ratio scores 50.
  • +0 to +21 from price drops. A city where 60% of listings have at least one price reduction adds 21 points. Redfin defines this as price_drops in the market tracker.
  • ±15 from days-on-market spike. Cities where DOM has risen 50%+ above its long-term average max out at +15. Falling DOM subtracts.
  • ±12 from inventory surplus. Cities sitting on 50%+ more active listings than their long-term norm add up to 12; tight inventory subtracts.
  • −10 to +30 from sale-to-list gap. A 1.0 ratio (full ask) contributes 0; a 0.95 ratio (5% under-ask negotiation) adds ~10.
  • Volume floor. Cities with under 10 closed sales in the most recent four-week window are excluded — small-sample noise dominates the metric below this floor.

Sources: Redfin Data Center city-grain weekly data feed. Methodology composed by HomeStats; not a Redfin product.

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