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Orange County, California

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$1,260,000
+38.5% YoY
Active Inventory
5,416
Days on Market
38 days
Price Drops
24.9%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$1,452,500
+4.7% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$750,000
+3.4% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+1.3%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
34d / 48d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
3.0 mo
Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
99.8%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
37%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Orange County, California?

$694/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$1,387,240
Above median (+10% vs median)
Region median
$1,260,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 865 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 1,730 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 2,883 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 7,209 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $290K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $1.26M home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $1.11M $676K real
Net gain on $290K upfront: $817K
Range: $1.11M → $1.11M
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $1.26M asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $3.43M $2.29M real
Net gain on $1.28M contributed: $2.14M
Range: $1.62M → $8.50M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $1.28M total.
Median wealth delta: $2.32M in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$1.11M$817K$4.94M$3.66M$3.83M rent
2010–2024$1.11M$817K$5.04M$3.75M$3.93M rent
2009–2023$1.11M$817K$4.78M$3.50M$3.68M rent
2008–2022$1.11M$817K$3.51M$2.22M$2.40M rent
2007–2021$1.11M$817K$4.56M$3.27M$3.45M rent
2006–2020$1.11M$817K$3.88M$2.60M$2.78M rent
2005–2019$1.11M$817K$3.50M$2.22M$2.40M rent
2004–2018$1.11M$817K$2.88M$1.60M$1.78M rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+27.8%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-12.0%
currently 38 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
4,237
Long-Term Avg DOM
43 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+0.9%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
-0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-01-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
22.0%
1.7 pts easier than California
Loans Actually Made
45,579
12,821 turned down
Average Loan Made
$762,104
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
11.1×
severely overvalued
Median Household Income
$113,702
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
3,164,063
total residents
Total Housing Units
1,138,473
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
5.6%
tight
Homeownership Rate
56.5%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
19.1%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
3.8%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
4.4%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
-19,551
losing people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
52,560
82,910 people moved in
Outbound Returns
63,348
102,461 people moved out
Net Returns
-10,788
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Los Angeles, California — 19,802 returns
  2. Riverside, California — 5,376 returns
  3. San Diego, California — 3,258 returns
  4. San Bernardino, California — 3,245 returns
  5. Santa Clara, California — 1,101 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Los Angeles, California — 16,006 returns
  2. Riverside, California — 8,367 returns
  3. San Diego, California — 4,006 returns
  4. San Bernardino, California — 3,647 returns
  5. Maricopa, Arizona — 1,858 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
137,945
4.4% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
33,306
1.06% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
22,787
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
88%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See California statewide stats →

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