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Essex County, New Jersey

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$665,000
+47.8% YoY
Active Inventory
1,295
Days on Market
49 days
Price Drops
10.4%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$700,000
+8.1% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$350,000
+2.0% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+6.1%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
34d / 78d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
3.3 mo
Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
106.5%
Bidding-war territory

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
72%
Highly competitive

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Essex County, New Jersey?

$360/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$720,701
Near median (+8% vs median)
Region median
$665,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 1,665 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 3,330 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 5,550 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 13,875 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $153K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $665K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $584K $357K real
Net gain on $153K upfront: $431K
Range: $584K → $584K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $665K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $1.57M $1.16M real
Net gain on $559K contributed: $1.01M
Range: $732K → $3.99M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $559K total.
Median wealth delta: $989K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$584K$431K$2.28M$1.72M$1.70M rent
2010–2024$584K$431K$2.33M$1.77M$1.74M rent
2009–2023$584K$431K$2.22M$1.67M$1.64M rent
2008–2022$584K$431K$1.58M$1.02M$995K rent
2007–2021$584K$431K$2.05M$1.49M$1.46M rent
2006–2020$584K$431K$1.75M$1.19M$1.17M rent
2005–2019$584K$431K$1.57M$1.01M$989K rent
2004–2018$584K$431K$1.30M$737K$712K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
-23.7%
deficit — seller leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
+4.1%
currently 49 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
1,697
Long-Term Avg DOM
47 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+6.0%
positive — appreciating
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2025-10-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
8.7×
severely overvalued
Median Household Income
$76,712
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
854,130
total residents
Total Housing Units
335,550
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
5.4%
tight
Homeownership Rate
44.5%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
13.3%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
3.2%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
38.5%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
-5,642
losing people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
17,347
29,200 people moved in
Outbound Returns
20,606
34,842 people moved out
Net Returns
-3,259
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Hudson, New Jersey — 2,594 returns
  2. Union, New Jersey — 1,955 returns
  3. Kings, New York — 1,621 returns
  4. Passaic, New Jersey — 1,347 returns
  5. Bergen, New Jersey — 1,226 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Union, New Jersey — 2,803 returns
  2. Hudson, New Jersey — 1,745 returns
  3. Morris, New Jersey — 1,452 returns
  4. Bergen, New Jersey — 1,205 returns
  5. Middlesex, New Jersey — 1,194 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
46,500
5.5% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
14,941
1.77% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
10,007
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
89%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See New Jersey statewide stats →

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