Santa Barbara County, California Housing Market

Median Sale Price

$1,069,500

+29.6% YoY

Active Inventory

669

Days on Market

38 days

Price Drops

26.5%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)

Single-Family Median

$1,240,000

-4.8% YoY

Condo / Co-op Median

$767,500

+2.3% YoY

SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap

-7.1%

condos outperforming SFR

DOM: SFR vs. Condo

35d / 45d

SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin

Months of Supply

2.4 mo

Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio

99.2%

At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List

32%

Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Santa Barbara County, California?

$622/sqft median (Redfin)

Square footage 2,000 sqft

Bedrooms +$0 adj

Bathrooms +$0 adj

Lot size optional

Estimated price

$1,243,386

Above median (+16% vs median)

Region median

$1,069,500

all homes

Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?

$600,000

≈ 965 sqft

$1,200,000

≈ 1,930 sqft

$2,000,000

≈ 3,217 sqft

$5,000,000

≈ 8,043 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500

Property type:

Home price

Monthly rent

Down %

Rate %

Property tax %

Insurance / yr

Maintenance %

HOA / mo

Home appreciation %

Rent inflation %

Horizon (yrs)

Invest in

After-tax mode (MID, SALT, LTCG, Sec 121) Show inflation-adjusted (real) side-by-side VA loan (0% down, no PMI, funding fee)

BUY + OWN

Median ending wealth $939K $574K real

Net gain on $246K upfront: $693K

Range: $939K → $939K

Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $1.07M asset comes from the 20% down.

RENT + INVEST

Median ending portfolio $2.67M $1.68M real

Net gain on $976K contributed: $1.69M

Range: $1.26M → $6.73M

Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $976K total.

Median wealth delta: $1.73M in favor of RENT + INVEST

What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)

Window	Buy wealth	Buy gain	Rent wealth	Rent gain	Wealth delta
2011–2025	$939K	$693K	$3.88M	$2.90M	$2.94M rent
2010–2024	$939K	$693K	$3.96M	$2.98M	$3.02M rent
2009–2023	$939K	$693K	$3.77M	$2.80M	$2.83M rent
2008–2022	$939K	$693K	$2.72M	$1.74M	$1.78M rent
2007–2021	$939K	$693K	$3.52M	$2.55M	$2.58M rent
2006–2020	$939K	$693K	$3.01M	$2.03M	$2.07M rent
2005–2019	$939K	$693K	$2.71M	$1.73M	$1.77M rent
2004–2018	$939K	$693K	$2.23M	$1.25M	$1.29M rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend

Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg

+24.4%

surplus — buyer leverage

DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg

-11.5%

currently 38 days

Long-Term Avg Inventory

538

Long-Term Avg DOM

43 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency

State HPI YoY

+1.8%

flat — pressure building

State HPI vs. Peak

0.0%

at or near peak peak 2026-01-01

National Mortgage Delinquency

1.89%

benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income

Value / Income

11.1×

severely overvalued

Median Household Income

$95,977

Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)

Population

443,975

total residents

Total Housing Units

159,766

all units, occupied + vacant

Vacancy Rate

6.8%

tight

Homeownership Rate

52.9%

of occupied units owner-occupied

Boomer Owners (65+)

21.9%

of homeowner households

Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)

3.5%

of homeowner households

Pre-1949 Housing Stock

11.9%

structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data

Net Migration

-2,134

losing people (2022–2023)

Inbound Returns

5,507

8,419 people moved in

Outbound Returns

7,086

10,553 people moved out

Net Returns

-1,579

household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

Los Angeles, California — 1,018 returns
San Luis Obispo, California — 722 returns
Ventura, California — 611 returns
San Diego, California — 286 returns
Orange, California — 262 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

Los Angeles, California — 990 returns
Ventura, California — 875 returns
San Luis Obispo, California — 840 returns
San Diego, California — 478 returns
Orange, California — 284 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)

Inbound Movers (1 yr)

30,083

6.85% of pop. — moved here from outside the county

From Other States

7,600

1.73% of pop. — interstate inbound

From Abroad

3,306

moved into the county from outside the U.S.

Same House 1 Year Ago

84%

stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See California statewide stats →

Verify any number on this page: data sources, formulas, and cross-references →