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Santa Barbara County, California

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$1,069,500
+29.6% YoY
Active Inventory
669
Days on Market
38 days
Price Drops
26.5%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$1,240,000
-4.8% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$767,500
+2.3% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
-7.1%
condos outperforming SFR
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
35d / 45d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
2.4 mo
Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
99.2%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
32%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Santa Barbara County, California?

$622/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$1,243,386
Above median (+16% vs median)
Region median
$1,069,500
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 965 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 1,930 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 3,217 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 8,043 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $246K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $1.07M home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $939K $574K real
Net gain on $246K upfront: $693K
Range: $939K → $939K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $1.07M asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $2.67M $1.69M real
Net gain on $980K contributed: $1.70M
Range: $1.26M → $6.75M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $980K total.
Median wealth delta: $1.74M in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$939K$693K$3.89M$2.91M$2.95M rent
2010–2024$939K$693K$3.97M$2.99M$3.03M rent
2009–2023$939K$693K$3.78M$2.80M$2.84M rent
2008–2022$939K$693K$2.72M$1.75M$1.79M rent
2007–2021$939K$693K$3.54M$2.56M$2.60M rent
2006–2020$939K$693K$3.02M$2.04M$2.08M rent
2005–2019$939K$693K$2.72M$1.74M$1.78M rent
2004–2018$939K$693K$2.24M$1.26M$1.30M rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+24.4%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-11.5%
currently 38 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
538
Long-Term Avg DOM
43 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+0.9%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
-0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-01-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
22.9%
about the same as statewide
Loans Actually Made
5,402
1,608 turned down
Average Loan Made
$754,337
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
11.1×
severely overvalued
Median Household Income
$95,977
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
443,975
total residents
Total Housing Units
159,766
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
6.8%
tight
Homeownership Rate
52.9%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
21.9%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
3.5%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
11.9%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
-2,134
losing people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
5,507
8,419 people moved in
Outbound Returns
7,086
10,553 people moved out
Net Returns
-1,579
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Los Angeles, California — 1,018 returns
  2. San Luis Obispo, California — 722 returns
  3. Ventura, California — 611 returns
  4. San Diego, California — 286 returns
  5. Orange, California — 262 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Los Angeles, California — 990 returns
  2. Ventura, California — 875 returns
  3. San Luis Obispo, California — 840 returns
  4. San Diego, California — 478 returns
  5. Orange, California — 284 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
30,083
6.85% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
7,600
1.73% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
3,306
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
84%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See California statewide stats →

Verify any number on this page: data sources, formulas, and cross-references →