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Merced County, California

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$425,000
+11.8% YoY
Active Inventory
413
Days on Market
35 days
Price Drops
25.9%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$425,000
-0.2% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$270,000
+10.2% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
-10.4%
condos outperforming SFR
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
32d / 142d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
2.7 mo
Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
98.9%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
34%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Merced County, California?

$267/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$534,521
Above median (+26% vs median)
Region median
$425,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 2,245 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 4,490 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 7,483 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 18,708 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $98K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $425K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $373K $228K real
Net gain on $98K upfront: $275K
Range: $373K → $373K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $425K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $974K $720K real
Net gain on $344K contributed: $630K
Range: $454K → $2.49M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $344K total.
Median wealth delta: $601K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$373K$275K$1.42M$1.08M$1.05M rent
2010–2024$373K$275K$1.45M$1.11M$1.08M rent
2009–2023$373K$275K$1.39M$1.04M$1.01M rent
2008–2022$373K$275K$978K$634K$605K rent
2007–2021$373K$275K$1.27M$924K$895K rent
2006–2020$373K$275K$1.08M$739K$710K rent
2005–2019$373K$275K$974K$630K$601K rent
2004–2018$373K$275K$803K$459K$430K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+4.8%
roughly balanced
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-6.6%
currently 35 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
394
Long-Term Avg DOM
38 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+0.9%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
-0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-01-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
24.9%
1.2 pts harder than California
Loans Actually Made
3,640
1,209 turned down
Average Loan Made
$291,368
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
6.5×
severely overvalued
Median Household Income
$65,044
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
285,597
total residents
Total Housing Units
89,610
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
5.6%
tight
Homeownership Rate
53.3%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
15.7%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
5.8%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
9.8%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+330
losing people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
3,868
7,707 people moved in
Outbound Returns
4,004
7,377 people moved out
Net Returns
-136
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Stanislaus, California — 972 returns
  2. Santa Clara, California — 674 returns
  3. Fresno, California — 228 returns
  4. San Joaquin, California — 215 returns
  5. Alameda, California — 178 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Stanislaus, California — 1,110 returns
  2. Santa Clara, California — 426 returns
  3. Fresno, California — 351 returns
  4. Sacramento, California — 232 returns
  5. Madera, California — 221 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
14,614
5.19% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
2,164
0.77% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
1,846
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
89%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See California statewide stats →

Verify any number on this page: data sources, formulas, and cross-references →