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Merced County, California

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$405,000
+13.3% YoY
Active Inventory
436
Days on Market
35 days
Price Drops
29.8%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$405,000
-4.7% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$252,500
-14.4% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+9.7%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
35d / 31d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
2.5 mo
Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
99.2%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
33%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Merced County, California?

$264/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$528,275
Above median (+30% vs median)
Region median
$405,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 2,272 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 4,543 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 7,572 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 18,930 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $93K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $405K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $356K $217K real
Net gain on $93K upfront: $262K
Range: $356K → $356K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $405K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $902K $666K real
Net gain on $317K contributed: $585K
Range: $421K → $2.32M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $317K total.
Median wealth delta: $546K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$356K$262K$1.32M$1.01M$967K rent
2010–2024$356K$262K$1.35M$1.03M$995K rent
2009–2023$356K$262K$1.29M$977K$938K rent
2008–2022$356K$262K$906K$589K$550K rent
2007–2021$356K$262K$1.17M$857K$818K rent
2006–2020$356K$262K$1.00M$687K$648K rent
2005–2019$356K$262K$902K$585K$546K rent
2004–2018$356K$262K$743K$427K$388K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+12.7%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-4.0%
currently 35 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
387
Long-Term Avg DOM
37 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+1.2%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2025-10-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
6.2×
severely overvalued
Median Household Income
$65,044
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
285,597
total residents
Total Housing Units
89,610
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
5.6%
tight
Homeownership Rate
53.3%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
15.7%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
5.8%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
9.8%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+330
losing people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
3,868
7,707 people moved in
Outbound Returns
4,004
7,377 people moved out
Net Returns
-136
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Stanislaus, California — 972 returns
  2. Santa Clara, California — 674 returns
  3. Fresno, California — 228 returns
  4. San Joaquin, California — 215 returns
  5. Alameda, California — 178 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Stanislaus, California — 1,110 returns
  2. Santa Clara, California — 426 returns
  3. Fresno, California — 351 returns
  4. Sacramento, California — 232 returns
  5. Madera, California — 221 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
14,614
5.19% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
2,164
0.77% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
1,846
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
89%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See California statewide stats →

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