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Madison County, Illinois

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$245,000
+37.6% YoY
Active Inventory
570
Days on Market
35 days
Price Drops
21.4%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$249,900
+23.4% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$214,000
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
-59.5%
condos outperforming SFR
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
34d / 45d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
2.0 mo
Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
99.9%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
47%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Madison County, Illinois?

$144/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$288,597
Above median (+18% vs median)
Region median
$245,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 4,158 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 8,316 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 13,860 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 34,650 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $56K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $245K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $215K $131K real
Net gain on $56K upfront: $159K
Range: $215K → $215K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $245K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $374K $252K real
Net gain on $105K contributed: $269K
Range: $165K → $1.04M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $105K total.
Median wealth delta: $159K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$215K$159K$562K$457K$347K rent
2010–2024$215K$159K$575K$470K$360K rent
2009–2023$215K$159K$563K$458K$348K rent
2008–2022$215K$159K$349K$243K$134K rent
2007–2021$215K$159K$448K$343K$233K rent
2006–2020$215K$159K$387K$281K$172K rent
2005–2019$215K$159K$344K$239K$129K rent
2004–2018$215K$159K$284K$179K$69K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
-0.9%
roughly balanced
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-9.7%
currently 35 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
575
Long-Term Avg DOM
39 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+6.0%
positive — appreciating
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-04-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
19.6%
3.0 pts easier than Illinois
Loans Actually Made
6,489
1,583 turned down
Average Loan Made
$188,415
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
3.3×
fair value
Median Household Income
$74,800
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
264,631
total residents
Total Housing Units
118,942
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
8.0%
tight
Homeownership Rate
73.6%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
23.2%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
9.3%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
22.3%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+752
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
3,605
5,971 people moved in
Outbound Returns
3,199
5,219 people moved out
Net Returns
+406
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. St. Clair, Illinois — 1,146 returns
  2. St. Louis, Missouri — 555 returns
  3. Macoupin, Illinois — 275 returns
  4. St. Louis city, Missouri — 273 returns
  5. Jersey, Illinois — 203 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. St. Clair, Illinois — 983 returns
  2. St. Louis, Missouri — 563 returns
  3. St. Louis city, Missouri — 295 returns
  4. Macoupin, Illinois — 293 returns
  5. St. Charles, Missouri — 205 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
11,282
4.3% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
5,252
2% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
236
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
88%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Illinois statewide stats →

Verify any number on this page: data sources, formulas, and cross-references →