MN · Live Data Snapshot

Minnesota

Live housing, income & risk dashboard — every number is cited and refreshed weekly. Drag the calculators below for your numbers.

Market Score
0 /100
Neutral
Median Sale Price
$0
+0.0% YoY
Median Household Income
$0
Census ACS, taxable basis
Price ÷ Income
0.0×
Stretched
Median Rent
$0/mo
Zillow ZORI rolled up
Days on Market
0days
Hot market
Sources: Redfin · Census ACS · FRED · FHFA · FEMA NRI

Snapshot

Neutral (Score: 49/100) Stretched (4.3x income)
Median Sale Price #21/51
$372,300
+14.1% YoY
avg: $433,990
Active Inventory #28/51
14,792
avg: 22,163
Days on Market #6/51
25 days
avg: 42 days
Price Drops
32.5%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median #22/51
$395,300
+1.2% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median #5/51
$210,800
-6.4% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap #38/51
+7.5%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
23d / 51d
SFR / Condo
What this means: Single-family homes in Minnesota are up 1.2% YoY while condos are down 6.4%. A +7.5% gap is unusually wide — when condos drop faster than houses, association fees, insurance, and lending rules tend to be the cause, and motivated condo sellers usually follow.

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ income / annual rent
Value / Income #8/50
4.3×
stretched
Value / Rent #33/50
24.4×
overpriced vs rent
Median Household Income
$87,556
U.S. Census ACS
Annual Rent (ZORI × 12)
$15,288
$1,274/mo × 12
How to read these: Value/Income 4.3× means the median home in Minnesota costs 4.3× the median household income. Historically affordable markets sit around 3–4×; anything above 5× is stretched. Value/Rent 24.4× means it would take 24.4 years of gross rent to cover the price of buying. Below 15× is investor-friendly; above 25× the rents don't support the price.

Supply & Jobs

Census BPS + BLS LAUS via FRED
New Building Permits #34/50
2,408
+4.8% YoY
State Unemployment Rate
4.5%
+0.9 pts YoY

Permits are a leading indicator of new supply hitting the market in 12–18 months. State-level unemployment shifts often precede housing demand changes by a few quarters.

Rent vs. Buy

Source: Zillow ZORI rent index + Redfin price
Median Rent (ZORI) #17/50
$1,274/mo
-1.1% YoY
Buy-vs-Rent Ratio #33/50
1.89x
PITI ÷ rent (renting cheaper)
HUD FMR (2BR)
$1,125/mo
HUD baseline
What this means: At today's median price and a 6.5% mortgage, monthly PITI in Minnesota runs 1.89× the typical Zillow rent. Renting is meaningfully cheaper than buying — owners face higher monthly carry costs than renters of the same home.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg #30/51
+25.7%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg #6/51
-30.9%
currently under 60 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
11,771
over available trend
Long-Term Avg DOM
36 days
trailing 24 months
Inventory surplus: Active listings in Minnesota are +25.7% above the long-term average for this market. More supply means less competition and more buyer negotiating power.

Demographics & Economics

Source: U.S. Census ACS
Population #29/50
5,713,716
Median Household Income #38/50
$87,556
avg: $77,633
Census Median Home Value
$305,500
Homeownership Rate #45/50
72.4%
avg: 67.0%
Median Age #18/50
38.6
years (avg: 39.1)
Male : Female Ratio
1.00
roughly even
Married
61.2%
38.8% single/never married
Vacancy Rate #16/50
9.4%
avg: 11.0%
Price-to-Income Ratio #9/50
4.3x
avg: 5.4x
Rent Burden #20/50
28.9%
of income spent on rent (avg: 29.4%)
Affordability: The median home in Minnesota costs 4.3x the median household income.

Migration Trends

Source: IRS SOI Migration Data 2021-2022
Net Migration
-4,959
people moving out
Top Inbound From
1. Wisconsin
2. North Dakota
3. California
4. Illinois
5. Arizona
Top Outbound To
1. Wisconsin
2. North Dakota
3. Arizona
4. Florida
5. Texas
Migration Signal
Slight Outflow
neutral migration impact
What this means: Minnesota has relatively balanced migration, meaning population shifts are unlikely to significantly impact housing supply or demand in the near term.

Affordability Snapshot

Calculated from Redfin, FRED, NAIC, Tax Foundation
Income Needed to Buy
$102,440
at 6.48% / 20% down / 28% DTI
Median Household Income
$87,556
Affordability Gap
$-14,884
shortfall — home is a stretch
Monthly PITI
$2,390/mo
principal, interest, tax, insurance
Living Wage Estimate
$15.97/hr
single earner, basic needs
Living Wage Annual
$33,224
housing + essentials
What this means: A household in Minnesota needs to earn roughly $102,440/year to afford the median $372,300 home under standard lending rules (28% debt-to-income, 20% down, 6.48% rate). The median household falls $14,884 short — meaning most families would need to buy below the median, make a larger down payment, or have dual incomes.

Run Your Own Numbers

Drag any slider to recompute monthly PITI, total interest, and the income needed under the 28% rule against Minnesota's median household income.

Your W-2 Wage
Filing Status
Take-home from this wage: $64,376/yr (73.5% after fed 12.4% + FICA 7.6% + state 6.4%).
Monthly PITI
$2,390/mo
P&I $1,879 · Tax $344 · Ins $167
Loan Amount
$297,840
30-year fixed
Income Needed (28% rule)
$102,440
$14,884 ABOVE your wage
Lifetime Interest
$378,469
total interest paid over 30 years

Property tax estimated at 1.11% of price (Minnesota's effective rate). Insurance estimated at $2,007/year. PMI estimated at 0.5% of loan/year when down payment is below 20%. 28% rule = housing should not exceed 28% of gross income.

Real Income vs W-2 — Multi-Income Calculator

Mix W-2 wages, self-employment income (1099/Schedule C with proper SE-tax math), and VA disability — see take-home AND lender qualifying income side-by-side, recomputed in real time as you slide.

Real Income vs W-2 — Combined Tax & Qualifying Calculator

Slide W-2 wages, self-employment (1099/Schedule C), and VA disability rating to see how each income type stacks for take-home AND for lender qualifying. All math updates in real time as you move the sliders. Sources: IRS Schedule SE, VA Pamphlet 26-7, Fannie B3-3.2-01.

Tax-free monthly: $0/mo · annual: $0/yr (38 USC §5301)
Filing Status
Gross Cash Income
$87,556
W-2 + SE + tax-free disability
Total Tax
$23,180
26.5% of gross — fed $10,876 · FICA $6,698 · SE $0 · state $5,606 · local $0
Take-Home (post-tax)
$64,376
73.5% of gross — what hits your bank account
Lender Qualifying Income
$87,556
W-2 + SE (after ½-SE-tax) + disability ×1.25
W-2 wages
Gross$87,556
FICA (employee 7.65%)$6,698
Federal income tax$10,876
State + local$5,606
Take-home alone$64,376
Self-employment
Gross$0
SE tax (15.3% on net 92.35%)$0
Half SE deductible$0
Federal/state on SE-alone basis$0
Take-home (SE alone)$0
VA disability (0%)
Tax-free annual$0
Lender ×1.25 gross-up$0
Post-tax W-2 equivalent$0
Cash to bank$0
$1 of each income type — what does it net?
$1 W-2
$0.74 net
26.5% tax
$1 Self-Employment
$0.00 net
— tax (SE pays both halves of FICA)
$1 VA Disability
$1.00 net
0% tax (38 USC §5301) — keeps full dollar
Why a vet's dollar is worth more: Toggle Veteran scenario or move the disability slider to see the tax-equivalent advantage. A schedular 100% VA disability rating does NOT cap your civilian or self-employed earnings. The disability compensation is supplementary income on top of any wages, business income, or investments. TDIU (Individual Unemployability) is the one exception — it has earnings limits because it pays AT the 100% rate based on unemployability rather than schedular rating. Source.

Tax math: 2025 IRS brackets (Rev. Proc. 2024-40), 2025 SSA wage base $176,100, Schedule SE 92.35% net factor. State effective rate approximated at top × 0.65 below $200k. Self-employment qualifying income approximated as gross less ½-SE-tax (per Fannie B3-3.2-01 / Freddie 5304). Veteran ×1.25 gross-up per VA Pam 26-7. None of the above is tax/legal/financial advice; verify with a CPA + your lender.

5-Year Median Price Forecast (Backtested)

Trailing-CAGR model shrunk 50/50 toward the FHFA 1991-2024 long-run anchor for Minnesota, with ±1σ confidence band. Includes a 1-year hindcast so you can see how the model would have done on the last 12 months.

Minnesota Median Home Price — 5-Year Forecast (Backtested)

Median nominal sale price projection using FHFA HPI 1991-2024 long-run anchor + the trailing 5-year CAGR observed in the Redfin trend below. ±1σ confidence band uses blended FHFA + observed volatility. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

$656,993$562,596$468,199$373,801$279,404TodayJun 2021Feb 2024May 2031
Trailing 5-yr CAGR (observed)
—
Redfin 2021-06-30 → 2026-05-31
FHFA Long-Run CAGR (1991-2024)
4.13%
Anchor — FHFA All-Transactions HPI
Blended Forecast CAGR
3.52%
50/50 blend (shrinkage to long-run mean)
Annualized Volatility
6.92%
Used to size ±1σ band
YearMedian ForecastLow (-1σ)High (+1σ)
+1y$385,404$359,620$413,037
+2y$398,969$347,372$458,231
+3y$413,012$335,541$508,370
+4y$427,549$324,113$563,995
+5y$442,598$313,075$625,707
Backtest — 1-year hindcast

Hold out the last 12 months of trend, fit the model on the first 48 months, then compare to actual.

Cutoff date2025-05-31
Predicted +1yr$378,022
Actual +1yr$372,300
Error -1.51%
Inside ±1σ band? Yes

Sources: FHFA House Price Index, Redfin Data Center, FRED USSTHPI. Methodology: trailing CAGR shrunk 50/50 toward FHFA 1991-2024 long-run state CAGR (Efron–Morris empirical-Bayes shrinkage); volatility blends observed monthly-return σ with FHFA 33-year σ; confidence bands use σ_T = σ × √T (geometric Brownian motion approximation). Coastal CA / FL / NV typically run hotter than the national average; OH / WV / MI run cooler — the per-state long-run anchor reflects this. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

Live Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac PMMS + FRED)

Today's published 30-yr / 15-yr fixed survey averages plus the 10-yr Treasury benchmark. Updated weekly from the build pipeline.

Live Mortgage Rates
Loading current rates…

Climate & Disaster Risk

FEMA NRI hazards by category for Minnesota, plus NOAA climate normals + FEMA disaster-declaration history + NFIP flood-insurance burden + EPA water-quality.

Minnesota Climate & Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index per-state composite, with the specific hazards ranked. Pair with NOAA climate normals + FEMA disaster history + NFIP flood-insurance burden so you know what you're moving into. Sources cited inline.

Overall composite risk Relatively Moderate
FEMA score (0-100) 66.07142857142857
Expected annual loss $2,581,628,065

Hazard breakdown — worst first

Winter weather Very High
Strong wind Very High
Tornado Relatively High
Cold wave Relatively High
Riverine flood Relatively Moderate
Heat wave Relatively Moderate
Drought Relatively Moderate
Hail Relatively Moderate
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Wildfire Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Hurricane Very Low
Coastal flood Very Low

Climate + disaster context

Avg annual temp42.3°FNOAA
Federal disaster declarations1,623FEMA — 339 recent

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index, FEMA Disaster Declarations, NOAA Climate Normals, FEMA NFIP, EPA SDWIS. NRI severity tiers: Very Low / Relatively Low / Relatively Moderate / Relatively High / Very High.

Investment Property Analyzer (REI-grade)

Cap rate, NOI, cash-on-cash, DSCR, 10-yr IRR, BRRRR scenarios — recomputed live as you slide. NCREIF + IREM + Fannie Mae methodology.

Investment Property Analyzer (REI-grade)

Cap rate · NOI · Cash-on-cash · DSCR · 10-yr IRR · BRRRR — recomputed in real time as you slide. Methodology: NCREIF property index conventions, IREM operating-expense standards, Fannie Mae B3-3.1-08 rental-income underwriting, and the standard CRE textbook (Geltner et al, "Commercial Real Estate Analysis and Investments") for cap-rate / NOI / IRR formulas.

NOI / yr (Year 1)
$-744
EGI $14,065 − OpEx $14,809
Cap rate
-0.20%
NCREIF U.S. Q1 2024 multifamily ~5.0% (national)
Annual cash flow
-$23,556
-$1,963/mo before tax
Cash-on-cash return
-22.60%
Cash flow ÷ $104,244 cash invested
DSCR (lender)
-0.03x
Most rental-loan lenders require ≥ 1.20-1.25
10-yr IRR
-6.84%
Levered, pre-tax, includes 3% appreciation + 3% rent growth, 8% sell costs
BRRRR scenario — Buy / Rehab / Rent / Refinance / Repeat
After-Repair Value (est.)$383,469
Cash-out refi @ 75% LTV of ARV$287,602
Cash recycled vs cash in$8,377
New DSCR after refi-0.03x
New annual cash flow-$24,240

"Cash recycled" positive = you pulled MORE money out than you put in across down + rehab; effectively a $0-net BRRRR cycle. ARV uses appreciation × current value + 1.5x rehab spend (rough industry rule of thumb; actual ARV needs an as-completed appraisal).

Benchmarks for sanity-checking the numbers
  • Cap rate — NCREIF NPI U.S. Q4 2024 (institutional grade): apartment ~5.0%, industrial ~5.6%, office ~6.5%, retail ~6.4%. Single-family rental average per Roofstock 2024 ~5-7% nationally; 7%+ is solid in tertiary markets, 4-5% in coastal metros.
  • DSCR — Fannie Mae rental-property guidelines: 1.20+ on conventional, 1.25+ on commercial DSCR loans. Below 1.0 means the property is operating at a loss before debt service.
  • Cash-on-cash — long-run REIT total return is ~8-10% nominal. Anything <6% before tax suggests heavy reliance on appreciation, not income.
  • 1% rule — monthly rent ≥ 1% of purchase price is a classic screening filter (a $200k home renting for $2k/mo). Rare in coastal markets in 2025; typical screen below 0.6%.

Sources: NCREIF Property Index, IREM Income/Expense Analysis, Fannie Mae B3-3.1-08.

All math is pre-tax and operates on the user-set inputs. Real investments need a property-specific OpEx review, true rent comps, and a CPA for depreciation + 1031 exchange + cost-segregation strategies. Minnesota's effective property-tax rate is pre-filled — adjust if the property is in a higher-tax county.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own (historical backtest)

If you'd invested your 20% down payment in S&P 500 or QQQM (Nasdaq 100) instead of buying, how would you have come out? Backtested across all rolling 10/15/20-year windows of actual annual returns.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $86K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $372K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $327K $200K real
Net gain on $86K upfront: $241K
Range: $327K → $327K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $372K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $920K $581K real
Net gain on $335K contributed: $585K
Range: $432K → $2.32M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $335K total.
Median wealth delta: $593K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$327K$241K$1.34M$1.00M$1.01M rent
2010–2024$327K$241K$1.36M$1.03M$1.04M rent
2009–2023$327K$241K$1.30M$965K$973K rent
2008–2022$327K$241K$934K$599K$607K rent
2007–2021$327K$241K$1.21M$877K$885K rent
2006–2020$327K$241K$1.03M$699K$708K rent
2005–2019$327K$241K$932K$596K$605K rent
2004–2018$327K$241K$767K$432K$441K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Jobs & Affordability

Sources: BLS OES 2023, Goldman Sachs/OpenAI AI estimates
Jobs That Afford Median Home
40%
of 10 major occupation groups
Income Threshold
$102,440
needed to buy median home
Occupation GroupMedian SalaryCan Afford?AI Exposure
Management $120,000 Yes 28%
Computer/Math $95,000 Yes 32%
Healthcare Practitioners $78,000 No 15%
Architecture/Engineering $85,000 Yes 24%
Business/Financial $72,000 No 35%
Legal $88,000 Yes 44%
Education/Training $52,000 No 27%
Construction/Extraction $52,000 No 6%
Production $40,000 No 12%
Food Prep/Serving $28,000 No 5%
What this shows: Only 40% of major occupation groups in Minnesota pay enough to afford the median $372,300 home. Of the jobs that do pay enough, Management, Computer/Math, Legal face significant AI automation exposure (25%+), which could pressure wages in these fields over the next decade.

Opportunity Cost of Buying

S&P 500 avg: 10.5%/yr | Actual state appreciation | Transaction costs included
20% Down Payment
$74,460
locked in home equity
If Invested (10yr)
$127,630
S&P 500 avg 10.5%/yr gain
Home Equity (10yr)
$231,766
appreciation + principal paydown
Opportunity Gap
$104,136
home equity wins over 10yr
Total 30yr Interest
$378,469
127% of loan amount
Buy Closing Costs
$11,169
~3% (title, appraisal, fees)
Sell Costs
$29,784
~8% (6% agent + 2% closing)
Total Transaction Cost
$40,953
11% of home value to buy + sell

Backtested: What If You Bought X Years Ago?

Compares actual Minnesota home appreciation against investing the same 20% down payment in the S&P 500 (10.5% avg). Includes estimated principal buildup and transaction costs (3% buy + 8% sell). Based on actual state trend data where available.

PeriodHome ThenApprec.DP → S&PNet if SoldNet if RentedWinner
1yr $378,700 +-1.7% $7,953 $-42,180 +$29,426 Invest
2yr $363,200 +2.5% $16,055 $-20,038 +$60,524 Invest
4yr $350,300 +6.3% $34,393 +$8,038 +$129,420 Invest
5yr $326,400 +14.1% $42,265 +$41,267 +$164,854 Invest
10yr* $251,513 +48.0% $86,223 +$173,633 +$369,460 Invest

* Estimated (trend data unavailable for this period). "Net if Sold" = appreciation + principal paid − 3% buy closing − 8% sell costs. "Net if Rented" = S&P 500 return on down payment + invested rent savings (if renting was cheaper).

Residual Income by Household Type

ScenarioIncomeAfter OwnAfter Rent
Single earner $63,040 $24,532 $45,244
Couple (dual income) $87,556 $49,048 $69,760
Family (3 kids) $100,689 $18,645 $39,357
The real trade-off: Locking $74,460 into a down payment means forgoing potential market returns of $127,630 over 10 years. You'll also pay $378,469 in interest over 30 years, and $40,953 in transaction costs just to buy and sell. The home builds equity too ($231,766), but that wealth is illiquid — you can't spend it without selling or borrowing against it. For a family with 3 kids in Minnesota, childcare alone ($43,536/yr) combined with ownership costs leaves $18,645/yr for everything else. For a deeper analysis of when buying makes financial sense, read The Resale Trap.

Paycheck Reality: What You Earn vs What You Keep

2025 federal brackets + FICA · state top rate 9.85% · local avg 0.00%
Required Gross (Single)
$42,179
$20.28/hr at 40hr/wk
Required Gross (MFJ)
$39,843
$19.16/hr at 40hr/wk (combined)
Take-home Floor
$33,224
Minnesota's living-wage estimate (housing + RPP-adjusted essentials)
Single Effective Tax
21.2%
Fed + FICA + State + Local of gross

Where Each Dollar Goes — Single Filer at $42,179 Gross

Visual share of the dollar. Federal uses 2025 IRS brackets after standard deduction; FICA is Social Security 6.2% (capped at $176,100 in 2025) + Medicare 1.45%; state uses the top marginal rate × 0.65 effective approximation (most middle earners pay below their top bracket); local is the state's average local-income-tax rate where applicable.

Federal: 7.2% 7.2% FICA: 7.7% 7.7% State: 6.4% 6.4% Take-home: 78.8% 78.8%
Federal 7.2% ($3,023) FICA 7.7% ($3,227) State 6.4% ($2,701) Take-home 78.8% ($33,228)

What You Keep at Various Incomes — Minnesota

Take-home percentages combine federal, FICA, and Minnesota's state income tax. Property tax, sales tax, and benefit deductions (health insurance, 401(k)) are excluded.

Filing StatusGrossFederalFICAStateLocalTake-home
Single $50,000 7.9% 7.6% 6.4% 0.0% 78.0% ($39,012)
Single $75,000 10.8% 7.7% 6.4% 0.0% 75.1% ($56,346)
Single $100,000 13.6% 7.6% 6.4% 0.0% 72.3% ($72,334)
Single $150,000 16.8% 7.6% 6.4% 0.0% 69.1% ($103,674)
Married Filing Jointly $50,000 4.0% 7.6% 6.4% 0.0% 81.9% ($40,974)
Married Filing Jointly $75,000 6.6% 7.7% 6.4% 0.0% 79.4% ($59,537)
Married Filing Jointly $100,000 7.9% 7.6% 6.4% 0.0% 78.0% ($78,025)
Married Filing Jointly $150,000 10.8% 7.6% 6.4% 0.0% 75.1% ($112,693)
The blunt math: A single earner needs to gross $42,179 ($20.28/hr × 40hr/wk × 52wk) just to net Minnesota's living-wage floor of $33,224. At Minnesota's median household hourly rate of ~$42.09, that's 25 forty-hour weeks of work per year. Government takes 21.2% of every gross dollar before you see it. Minnesota's 9.85% top state rate is real. Married couples filing jointly with the same combined gross keep 4.7% more thanks to wider brackets and a $30,000 standard deduction (vs. $15,000 single).

Drag to See Your Own Split

Slide your gross income to see exactly how Minnesota's tax stack splits between Washington, FICA, Minnesota, and your take-home — in real time.

Filing Status
Federal: 12.5% ($10,974)12.5%FICA: 7.6% ($6,732)7.6%State: 6.4% ($5,634)6.4%Take-home: 73.5% ($64,660)73.5%
Federal 12.5% ($10,974) FICA 7.6% ($6,732) State 6.4% ($5,634) Take-home 73.5% ($64,660)
Take-home / year
$64,660
73.5% of gross
Take-home / month
$5,388
after fed + FICA + state + local
Take-home / paycheck
$2,487
bi-weekly (26/yr)
Hourly equivalent
$42.31/hr
at 40 hr/wk × 52 wk

Live model. Uses Minnesota's 9.85% top state rate (effective ≈ top × 0.65 for income up to $200k). Property tax, sales tax, and benefit deductions (health, 401k) are not included. Brackets are 2025 IRS / SSA.

Wage-Stagnation Lens: 50 Years of Median Income

CPI-U (BLS) · Gold annual avg (LBMA / WGC) · Census ASEC Table H-5/H-6
Minnesota Median HH Income (Today)
$87,556
U.S. Census ACS / Current Population Survey
In 1970 Dollars (CPI-Adjusted)
$10,279
+4% vs U.S. 1970 median ($9,870)
Today's Wage in Gold Ounces
18.6 oz
at $4,700/oz
Same Wage Bought in 1970
274.2 oz
-93% gold purchasing power vs 1970

National Reference: Wage, CPI, and Gold Across 5 Decades

U.S. national median household income, CPI-U (BLS, base 1982-84=100), and annual-average gold price. The "Real (1970 $)" column shows what the year's median income equates to in 1970 purchasing power per official BLS CPI. The "Wage in Gold (oz)" column shows the same income priced in troy ounces of gold for that year — a hard-money benchmark independent of CPI methodology.

YearMedian HH IncomeCPI-UReal (1970 $)Gold $/ozWage in Gold
1970 $9,870 38.8 $9,870 $36 274.2 oz
1975 $13,719 53.8 $9,894 $161 85.2 oz
1980 $21,023 82.4 $9,899 $615 34.2 oz
1985 $27,735 107.6 $10,001 $317 87.5 oz
1990 $35,353 130.7 $10,495 $384 92.1 oz
1995 $40,611 152.4 $10,339 $384 105.8 oz
2000 $50,732 172.2 $11,431 $279 181.8 oz
2005 $56,194 195.3 $11,164 $444 126.6 oz
2010 $49,276 218.1 $8,766 $1,225 40.2 oz
2015 $56,516 237.0 $9,252 $1,160 48.7 oz
2020 $67,521 258.8 $10,123 $1,770 38.1 oz
2023 $80,610 304.7 $10,265 $1,942 41.5 oz
2024 $83,730 313.7 $10,356 $2,390 35.0 oz
2025 $86,500 322.5 $10,407 $3,050 28.4 oz
2026 $89,500 330.5 $10,507 $4,700 19.0 oz

CPI-U source: BLS, https://www.bls.gov/cpi/. Gold annual averages: World Gold Council / LBMA p.m. fix, https://www.gold.org/. Median household income: U.S. Census Bureau ASEC Table H-5/H-6, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html. All figures rounded; verify against primary sources before quoting.

Why Two Numbers Diverge: BLS Methodology Changes Since 1980

CPI-U is not a static measure. BLS has changed how it is calculated several times since the late 1970s, and each change has lowered measured inflation. The list below catalogues the major changes with primary-source citations. The cumulative effect — per the Boskin Commission's own 1996 estimate — is that CPI under the older methodology would read 1+ percentage points higher per year sustained. ShadowStats (alternative methodology) puts the gap at 3–7 percentage points.

YearMethodology ChangeEffect on Measured Inflation
1983 Owner-equivalent rent (OER) replaces home prices for shelter BLS shifted CPI shelter from a home-purchase / mortgage-and-property-tax model to "rental equivalence" — what a homeowner would pay to rent their own home. This insulates CPI from house-price spikes and is widely cited as one of the largest single methodology changes in CPI history.
1996 Boskin Commission report; substitution / geometric-mean weighting The 1996 Boskin Commission report concluded that pre-1996 CPI overstated inflation by ~1.1 percentage points per year. BLS adopted geometric-mean weighting for many item-level CPI components in 1999, which assumes consumers substitute toward cheaper alternatives within categories.
1998 Hedonic quality adjustments expanded across multiple categories BLS expanded use of "hedonic regression" — adjusting prices for changes in product quality (e.g., a faster computer at the same nominal price is treated as a price decrease). Critics argue hedonics systematically reduce measured inflation when applied broadly; BLS defends them as more accurate per-quality measurement.
1999 Geometric mean implemented at the item-stratum level Per the Boskin recommendations, CPI item-level prices began using geometric (rather than arithmetic) means, which lowers measured inflation by approximately 0.2 percentage points per year on a sustained basis.
2002 Chained CPI (C-CPI-U) introduced as alternative measure BLS began publishing the Chained CPI (C-CPI-U), which assumes higher substitution between categories (not just within). C-CPI-U is typically 0.2–0.3 percentage points lower than CPI-U annually. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 switched federal tax-bracket indexing to chained CPI, slowly increasing real tax burdens over time.
The ShadowStats (alternative CPI) view: Reverting to pre-1980 / pre-1990 BLS methodology yields CPI 3–7 percentage points higher annually; under that methodology, US real wages have *declined* materially since the early 1970s rather than remained flat. Caveat: ShadowStats methodology is not endorsed by mainstream academic economists; it is presented here as an alternative perspective on the BLS methodology changes catalogued above. Direct reference: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts.
The blunt math for Minnesota: a household earning Minnesota's current median of $87,556 buys 18.6 oz of gold today. The U.S. 1970 median household income of $9,870 bought 274.2 oz that year. Priced in gold — a hard-money benchmark unaffected by CPI methodology choices — household purchasing power has fallen -93% over 54 years. By the official CPI-U measure, real wages are roughly flat (+4% vs 1970). Both numbers are correct; they reflect different choices about what a "stable" yardstick is. Performing only W-2 labor — without holding hard assets, equity, or productive capital — exposes a household to the gap between these two yardsticks. For the broader case on why W-2 income alone is structurally fragile across this kind of multi-decade arc, see The W-2 Trap.

Cost of Living & Safety

Sources: HUD, BEA, FBI UCR
Cost of Living Index #30/50
98.621
1.4% below national avg
Fair Market Rent (2BR) #21/50
$1,125/mo
avg: $1,317/mo
State Income Tax
9.85%
top marginal rate
Violent Crime Rate #13/50
280
per 100K (avg: 379)
Property Crime Rate #22/50
2150
per 100K (avg: 2250)
Murder Rate #12/50
3.0
per 100K (avg: 5.6)
Rape/Sexual Assault
52
per 100K
Burglary Rate
280
per 100K
Auto Theft Rate
280
per 100K
Suicide Rate #10/50
13.4
per 100K (avg: 17.2)
Mortgage Delinquency
1.9%
national rate (FRED)
Fair Market Rents: Studio $809 | 1BR $899 | 2BR $1,125 | 3BR $1,483 | 4BR $1,698
Cost context: Minnesota has a Regional Price Parity of 98.621 (national average = 100). Costs are near the national average.

Household & Living Costs

Sources: KFF, NAIC, BLS CPI, EIA
Health Insurance (Single) #19/50
$1,740/yr
$145/mo (avg: $1,815)
Health Insurance (Family) #18/50
$5,880/yr
$490/mo (avg: $6,145)
Auto Insurance #19/50
$1,752/yr
$146/mo (avg: $1,955)
Vehicle Registration
$35/yr
avg annual registration fee
Groceries #30/50
$601/mo
$7,215/yr (avg: $7,094)
Natural Gas
$99/mo
$1,188/yr residential avg
Internet Service
$55/mo
broadband avg
Cell Phone Plan
$54/mo
single line avg
Childcare (Infant) #47/50
$1,408/mo
$16,896/yr (avg: $11,925)
Childcare (4-yr-old)
$1,110/mo
$13,320/yr center-based
Grand Total Living Cost
$50,561/yr
$4,213/mo housing + household
% of Median Income
58%
of $87,556 median income
Total picture: Housing is just part of the cost of living in Minnesota. When you add healthcare, auto insurance, groceries, utilities, and connectivity, the full annual cost gives a more accurate picture of what it takes to live here. These numbers use statewide averages and employer-sponsored health plan employee contributions.

Cost of Ownership

Sources: NAIC, Tax Foundation, EIA, NOAA
Avg Insurance Premium #25/50
$2,007/yr
homeowner insurance (avg: $2,165)
Effective Property Tax #32/50
1.11%
of assessed value (avg: 1.04%)
Est. Annual Property Tax
$4,133/yr
on median-priced home
Electricity Price #29/50
15.8¢/kWh
residential avg (avg: 17.8¢)
Avg Annual Temperature
42.3°F
climate normal
Avg Humidity #20/50
68%
moderate humidity (avg: 65%)
Typical Home
1,800 sqft
3bd/2ba median config
Total Annual Cost
$38,508/yr
$3,209/mo total ownership
Mortgage (P&I)
$22,544/yr
Maintenance (1.5%)
$5,585/yr
general upkeep
Est. Electricity
$1,513/yr
~797 kWh/mo avg usage
Water/Sewer/Trash
$1,538/yr
$128/mo est.

Replacement Reserves

SystemEst. CostLifespanAnnual Reserve
Roof ⚠ $14,892 15 yrs (wind/hail zone) $993/yr
HVAC (high SEER) $8,000 17 yrs $471/yr
Windows $18,615 20 yrs $931/yr
Exterior/Stucco $7,446 12 yrs $621/yr
Total Reserve $3,015/yr
⚠ Wind & hail zone: Minnesota has elevated wind or hail risk. Expect shorter roof lifespans and potentially higher insurance deductibles for storm damage. Budget for more frequent roof inspections.
Note: Costs are estimates based on statewide averages. Insurance, taxes, maintenance, and replacement costs vary by county, property age, and specific location. Replacement reserves assume a median-priced home. Higher-efficiency HVAC (SEER 16+) costs more upfront but reduces energy bills. For a deeper breakdown, read The Resale Trap — 380 pages on the real cost of buying, owning, and selling a home.

Trade Labor & Materials

Sources: BLS OES 2023, PPI 2020-2025
TradeMedian $/hrDay Rate (8hr)vs National Avg
Plumber $33.60 $269 +17%
Electrician $35.40 $283 +18%
HVAC Technician $31.20 $250 +14%
Roofer $24.80 $198 +13%
Carpenter $28.40 $227 +15%
Painter $23.20 $186 +13%

Materials Cost Increases (5-Year, National)

Lumber & framing +28%
Structural steel +42%
Ready-mix concrete +35%
Copper wire & pipe +48%
Asphalt shingles +38%
HVAC equipment (SEER 16+) +31%
Windows & doors +26%
Drywall & plaster +22%
Why this matters: Labor and materials make up the majority of home repair and renovation costs. When your roof, HVAC, or plumbing needs work, these are the hourly rates you'll pay. Combined with materials that have risen 22-48% in five years, even routine maintenance is significantly more expensive than it was pre-2020. For a complete breakdown of these hidden ownership costs, read The Resale Trap.

Environment & Risk

Sources: EPA, FEMA NRI, FEMA NFIP
Overall Risk Rating
Relatively Moderate
EAL Score
66.1
expected annual loss index
Expected Annual Loss
$2,581,628,065
from natural hazards
earthquake Very Low
hurricane Very Low
tornado Relatively High
flooding Relatively Moderate
coastal Flooding Very Low
wildfire Relatively Low
heat Wave Relatively Moderate
cold Wave Relatively High
drought Relatively Moderate
hail Relatively Moderate
winter Weather Very High
strong Wind Very High
lightning Relatively Moderate
Drinking Water Violations
501
EPA regulatory violations
Flood Insurance Policies
180,682
active NFIP policies
Disaster Declarations
1,623
all-time FEMA declarations
Recent Disasters (2020+)
339
since January 2020
What water violations mean: The EPA tracks every time a public water system fails to meet federal drinking water standards through its Safe Drinking Water Information System (SDWIS). Violations fall into two categories: health-based violations mean contaminants like lead, arsenic, nitrates, or bacteria exceeded safe levels in someone's tap water; other violations include missed testing deadlines, late public notification, or treatment technique failures. Minnesota has a moderate number of violations. Most are procedural, but still worth requesting your local utility's Consumer Confidence Report before buying. For street-level water quality data with stricter health guidelines than the EPA's legal limits, check the EWG Tap Water Database.

Rent vs. Own

Sources: HUD FMR, Redfin, FRED
Monthly PITI (Own)
$2,390/mo
mortgage + tax + insurance
Fair Market Rent (3BR)
$1,483/mo
HUD fair market rent
Owning Costs More
$907/mo
premium to own vs rent
Price-to-Rent Ratio
20.9x
favors renting
Rent vs. buy: Owning the median home in Minnesota costs $907 more per month than renting a comparable 3-bedroom. The price-to-rent ratio of 20.9x suggests renting may be more economical in the near term. The NYT threshold is 15-20x. This summary excludes equity buildup, appreciation, tax deductions, and opportunity cost of the down payment — model those with the calculator below.
Run the full Rent vs. Buy projection (with appreciation, equity, and DP-invested portfolio) →

Market Trends

Source: Redfin (up to 5 years)

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Price Drop Rate

Trailing 12 months

Sale-to-List Ratio

Trailing 12 months
49
Neutral
0 50 100

Minnesota Market Score: 49/100

This score reflects how buyer- or seller-friendly the Minnesota market is right now, based on days on market, price cuts, sale-to-list ratio, inventory levels, year-over-year price movement, price-to-income ratio, and percentage of local jobs that can afford the median home.

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Minnesota
49
Neutral
Median Price $372,300
Monthly PITI $2,390
Price-to-Income 4.3x
Mortgage Rate 6.48%
Insurance $2,007/yr
Property Tax 1.11%

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Data: Redfin, FRED, HUD, BEA, FBI UCR, EPA SDWIS, FEMA NRI, FEMA NFIP, NAIC, Tax Foundation, EIA, NOAA, BLS OES.