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Riverside County, California

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$615,000
+15.6% YoY
Active Inventory
8,182
Days on Market
50 days
Price Drops
26.9%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$636,000
+1.0% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$450,000
-2.9% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+3.8%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
48d / 68d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
3.8 mo
Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
98.8%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
33%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Riverside County, California?

$323/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$646,343
Near median (+5% vs median)
Region median
$615,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 1,857 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 3,713 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 6,189 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 15,472 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $141K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $615K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $540K $330K real
Net gain on $141K upfront: $399K
Range: $540K → $540K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $615K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $1.43M $1.05M real
Net gain on $505K contributed: $922K
Range: $664K → $3.63M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $505K total.
Median wealth delta: $887K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$540K$399K$2.08M$1.57M$1.54M rent
2010–2024$540K$399K$2.12M$1.61M$1.58M rent
2009–2023$540K$399K$2.03M$1.52M$1.49M rent
2008–2022$540K$399K$1.43M$927K$893K rent
2007–2021$540K$399K$1.86M$1.35M$1.32M rent
2006–2020$540K$399K$1.59M$1.08M$1.05M rent
2005–2019$540K$399K$1.43M$922K$887K rent
2004–2018$540K$399K$1.18M$670K$636K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+19.5%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-9.2%
currently 50 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
6,847
Long-Term Avg DOM
55 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+0.9%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
-0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-01-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
25.9%
2.2 pts harder than California
Loans Actually Made
48,866
17,051 turned down
Average Loan Made
$419,295
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
6.9×
severely overvalued
Median Household Income
$89,672
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
2,449,909
total residents
Total Housing Units
860,042
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
11.4%
elevated
Homeownership Rate
68.9%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
22.1%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
6.1%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
3.7%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+10,844
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
49,965
92,433 people moved in
Outbound Returns
46,827
81,589 people moved out
Net Returns
+3,138
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Los Angeles, California — 11,161 returns
  2. San Bernardino, California — 11,141 returns
  3. Orange, California — 8,367 returns
  4. San Diego, California — 6,563 returns
  5. Maricopa, Arizona — 810 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. San Bernardino, California — 9,520 returns
  2. Los Angeles, California — 6,767 returns
  3. Orange, California — 5,376 returns
  4. San Diego, California — 5,038 returns
  5. Maricopa, Arizona — 1,550 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
118,899
4.9% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
21,676
0.89% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
10,530
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
90%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See California statewide stats →

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