San Francisco County, California
Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.
Single-Family vs. Condo
Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators
Latest month — RedfinInventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.
Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.
Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.
What does your sqft target cost in San Francisco County, California?
$1145/sqft median (Redfin)Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.
Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested
15-yr rolling history · S&P 500What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
| Window | Buy wealth | Buy gain | Rent wealth | Rent gain | Wealth delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011–2025 | $1.55M | $1.15M | $8.44M | $6.09M | $6.88M rent |
| 2010–2024 | $1.55M | $1.15M | $8.59M | $6.25M | $7.04M rent |
| 2009–2023 | $1.55M | $1.15M | $8.10M | $5.75M | $6.54M rent |
| 2008–2022 | $1.55M | $1.15M | $6.18M | $3.84M | $4.63M rent |
| 2007–2021 | $1.55M | $1.15M | $8.05M | $5.70M | $6.50M rent |
| 2006–2020 | $1.55M | $1.15M | $6.84M | $4.50M | $5.29M rent |
| 2005–2019 | $1.55M | $1.15M | $6.19M | $3.84M | $4.64M rent |
| 2004–2018 | $1.55M | $1.15M | $5.09M | $2.75M | $3.54M rent |
Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).
Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.
Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.
This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.
Market Pressure Signals
Derived from Redfin trendMortgage & Price Stress
State HPI + national delinquencyState-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).
Getting a Mortgage Here
CFPB HMDA 2025Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →
Value Ratios
Median home price ÷ county median incomeHistorically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.
Housing Stock & Owners
Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.
Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)
IRS Statistics of Income — Migration DataTop 5 Origins (where movers came from)
- San Mateo, California — 3,710 returns
- Alameda, California — 3,459 returns
- Santa Clara, California — 3,335 returns
- Los Angeles, California — 1,877 returns
- Contra Costa, California — 1,661 returns
Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)
- San Mateo, California — 4,514 returns
- Alameda, California — 3,938 returns
- Los Angeles, California — 2,100 returns
- Contra Costa, California — 2,092 returns
- Santa Clara, California — 2,061 returns
IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.
Who's Moving In (Census ACS)
Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.
Trends
Up to 5 years of monthly dataMedian Sale Price
Active Inventory
Days on Market
Looking for state-level data? See California statewide stats →
Verify any number on this page: data sources, formulas, and cross-references →