Seller Motivation Index
How motivated is the seller — and what should you actually offer? This 0-to-100 index reads a listing's own behavior (price cuts, days on market) against its market backdrop to estimate seller motivation, a motivation-adjusted value, and a fair-offer range. Score any active listing below, or browse the counties where sellers are most motivated. A HomeStats metric — not affiliated with Reventure.
Most motivated county market Caldwell County, Texas Market SMI 82 · 53% of listings cutting · 82d DOM
Counties in motivated territory (≥50) 731 out of 1417 counties tracked (≥25 sales)
Firm seller markets (<30) 62 tight supply, few cuts — sellers hold the leverage
Score an active listing
Pick the property's county (for the market backdrop and price-per-sqft), then enter the listing's numbers. Prefilled with a live Twin Falls, ID example. Seller behavior drives 70% of the score; the market backdrop drives the rest.
43 / 100
Softening Motivated but early — room to negotiate.
Motivation-adjusted value $475,915 -6.7% vs list · $129/sf
Conservative$451,643-11.4%
Fair$475,915-6.7%
Competitive$490,192-3.9%
Likely sale$483,054-5.3%
Days on market w 0.45
24 → +11
Price-cut behavior w 0.25
87 → +21.7
Overpricing / backdrop w 0.3
28 → +8.4
Subtotal 41.1 + 2 accelerating-cadence SMI 43 / 100
Run it in your own AI
Copy it into ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini — or hit Run on-device to compute it right here in your browser (Ask AI bubble, bottom-left). Prefilled with your inputs and this county's market backdrop.
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You are a real-estate pricing analyst. Compute the Seller Motivation Index (SMI): a 0-100 estimate of how motivated a home seller is (higher = more motivated / more buyer leverage), then give a fair-offer range. Use exactly this method and show your work. LISTING - Original list price: $559,000 - Current list price: $509,900 - Price cuts so far: 3 - Days on market: 44 - Size: 3,690 sqft, 7 bd / 3 ba, built 1978 - Market backdrop (the listing's county / ZIP): median days on market [look up on Redfin/Zillow], [look up]% of active listings carrying a price cut, homes sell at [look up]% of list price METHOD - SMI = weighted sum of three 0-100 sub-scores: 1) Days on market (weight 0.45). Piecewise-linear: 14d->0, 30->15, 60->35, 90->55, 180->80, 365+->100. 2) Price-cut behavior (weight 0.25). Total % cut off the original list: 0%->0, 3%->48, 6%->68, 8.8%->82, 12%->94, 15%+->100. Then +2.5 per extra cut beyond the first (cap +6). 3) Overpricing / market backdrop (weight 0.30). List vs your fair-value estimate: at/below fair->~22, ~10% over->55, ~20%+ over->80-100. If you can't estimate fair value, use the market negotiation gap (100% minus sale-to-list %): ~1-2% under ask->~28, ~5%->~65. SMI = 0.45*(1) + 0.25*(2) + 0.30*(3). Add +2 if there are 3+ price cuts with tightening intervals. Round to 0-100. Bands: 0-30 Firm, 30-50 Softening, 50-70 Motivated, 70-100 Capitulating. THEN - Motivation-adjusted (fair) value = current list * (1 - 0.155 * SMI/100). - Offer ranges: Conservative = fair*0.949, Fair = fair, Competitive = fair*1.030, Likely sale = midpoint of Fair and Competitive. Give each as a $ figure and as a % below the current list. - One line on price momentum: is the list trajectory + market trending down, flat, or up? OUTPUT: the SMI and its band, the three sub-scores with their weighted contributions, the motivation-adjusted value, the four offer figures, and the momentum line. State clearly this is an estimate, not an appraisal. (The Seller Motivation Index is a HomeStats method - homestats.app/seller-motivation - not affiliated with Reventure.)
HomeStats' own metric — not affiliated with Reventure or any "desperation" score. Seller behavior (days on market + price-cut history) drives 70% of the index; the market backdrop drives the rest. Estimates for information only, not an appraisal or offer.
Most motivated seller markets — top 100 counties
Where sellers are cutting fastest, sitting longest, and negotiating hardest against buyers. Higher = more buyer leverage.
| # | County | SMI | Band | Median Price | Price Cuts | DOM | Inv vs Avg | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caldwell County Texas | 82 | Capitulating | $237,990 | 53% | 82 | +80% | 47 |
| 2 | Madison County North Carolina | 82 | Capitulating | $424,000 | 29% | 199 | +43% | 29 |
| 3 | Llano County Texas | 79 | Capitulating | $587,000 | 27% | 116 | +61% | 52 |
| 4 | Laurel County Kentucky | 78 | Capitulating | $220,000 | 39% | 66 | +49% | 48 |
| 5 | Sullivan County New York | 78 | Capitulating | $292,500 | 22% | 142 | +34% | 44 |
| 6 | Burnet County Texas | 77 | Capitulating | $329,999 | 36% | 80 | +69% | 63 |
| 7 | Gillespie County Texas | 76 | Capitulating | $475,000 | 34% | 88 | +24% | 38 |
| 8 | Grayson County Texas | 76 | Capitulating | $315,000 | 38% | 88 | +48% | 229 |
| 9 | Liberty County Texas | 76 | Capitulating | $270,000 | 42% | 111 | +16% | 105 |
| 10 | Sequoyah County Oklahoma | 76 | Capitulating | $179,900 | 24% | 114 | +48% | 28 |
| 11 | Cooke County Texas | 75 | Capitulating | $285,000 | 30% | 56 | +73% | 41 |
| 12 | Fannin County Texas | 75 | Capitulating | $271,500 | 39% | 65 | +41% | 32 |
| 13 | Greene County Georgia | 75 | Capitulating | $1,003,325 | 33% | 89 | +38% | 46 |
| 14 | Lincoln County Tennessee | 75 | Capitulating | $240,000 | 27% | 92 | +39% | 33 |
| 15 | Anderson County Texas | 74 | Capitulating | $215,000 | 28% | 77 | +18% | 42 |
| 16 | McDowell County North Carolina | 74 | Capitulating | $273,000 | 31% | 71 | +43% | 35 |
| 17 | St. Martin Parish Louisiana | 74 | Capitulating | $171,000 | 32% | 67 | +24% | 28 |
| 18 | Washington County Texas | 74 | Capitulating | $288,250 | 26% | 111 | +25% | 28 |
| 19 | Bastrop County Texas | 73 | Capitulating | $341,000 | 35% | 95 | +45% | 108 |
| 20 | Cherokee County Alabama | 73 | Capitulating | $279,900 | 22% | 87 | +40% | 31 |
| 21 | DeKalb County Tennessee | 73 | Capitulating | $299,450 | 29% | 74 | +50% | 40 |
| 22 | Marion County Illinois | 73 | Capitulating | $90,750 | 43% | 52 | -3% | 26 |
| 23 | Miller County Missouri | 73 | Capitulating | $258,250 | 26% | 53 | +38% | 40 |
| 24 | Polk County North Carolina | 73 | Capitulating | $417,500 | 28% | 99 | +32% | 26 |
| 25 | Wood County Texas | 73 | Capitulating | $225,000 | 26% | 69 | +50% | 51 |
| 26 | Aransas County Texas | 72 | Capitulating | $345,000 | 27% | 72 | +44% | 49 |
| 27 | Grainger County Tennessee | 72 | Capitulating | $339,500 | 32% | 85 | +43% | 30 |
| 28 | Henderson County Texas | 72 | Capitulating | $276,750 | 32% | 72 | +33% | 110 |
| 29 | Lincoln County Oklahoma | 72 | Capitulating | $207,999 | 41% | 70 | +34% | 37 |
| 30 | Waller County Texas | 72 | Capitulating | $345,000 | 40% | 76 | +54% | 175 |
| 31 | Hendry County Florida | 71 | Capitulating | $286,099 | 27% | 90 | +30% | 28 |
| 32 | Sevier County Tennessee | 71 | Capitulating | $465,000 | 29% | 66 | +52% | 184 |
| 33 | Wood County West Virginia | 71 | Capitulating | $192,500 | 28% | 51 | +95% | 63 |
| 34 | Caroline County Maryland | 70 | Capitulating | $325,000 | 37% | 52 | +48% | 30 |
| 35 | Carroll County Arkansas | 70 | Capitulating | $286,375 | 27% | 72 | +48% | 31 |
| 36 | Essex County New York | 70 | Capitulating | $240,000 | 23% | 140 | +5% | 33 |
| 37 | Garland County Arkansas | 70 | Capitulating | $269,000 | 27% | 77 | +48% | 141 |
| 38 | Hancock County Mississippi | 70 | Capitulating | $274,500 | 32% | 63 | +28% | 88 |
| 39 | Henry County Tennessee | 70 | Capitulating | $238,750 | 37% | 62 | +4% | 31 |
| 40 | Martin County Minnesota | 70 | Capitulating | $146,926 | 34% | 48 | +96% | 26 |
| 41 | Murray County Georgia | 70 | Capitulating | $259,894 | 48% | 45 | +29% | 34 |
| 42 | Okanogan County Washington | 70 | Capitulating | $340,000 | 21% | 76 | +86% | 27 |
| 43 | Avery County North Carolina | 69 | Motivated | $477,500 | 17% | 101 | +62% | 32 |
| 44 | Carter County Oklahoma | 69 | Motivated | $218,000 | 28% | 46 | +52% | 52 |
| 45 | Clallam County Washington | 69 | Motivated | $479,950 | 38% | 31 | +67% | 96 |
| 46 | Finney County Kansas | 69 | Motivated | $225,000 | 32% | 33 | +39% | 31 |
| 47 | Gregg County Texas | 69 | Motivated | $260,000 | 25% | 70 | +31% | 127 |
| 48 | Lincoln County North Carolina | 69 | Motivated | $410,000 | 35% | 74 | +35% | 143 |
| 49 | Rockingham County North Carolina | 69 | Motivated | $232,000 | 40% | 51 | +35% | 93 |
| 50 | Rockwall County Texas | 69 | Motivated | $420,000 | 39% | 76 | +38% | 192 |
| 51 | Stone County Missouri | 69 | Motivated | $387,450 | 28% | 48 | +61% | 68 |
| 52 | Talbot County Maryland | 69 | Motivated | $442,500 | 28% | 66 | +55% | 60 |
| 53 | Warren County Tennessee | 69 | Motivated | $260,000 | 29% | 97 | +20% | 52 |
| 54 | White County Georgia | 69 | Motivated | $326,850 | 31% | 48 | +45% | 46 |
| 55 | Anderson County South Carolina | 68 | Motivated | $299,995 | 32% | 68 | +50% | 284 |
| 56 | Atascosa County Texas | 68 | Motivated | $275,000 | 50% | 108 | +49% | 51 |
| 57 | Boyd County Kentucky | 68 | Motivated | $156,599 | 23% | 73 | +17% | 53 |
| 58 | Bulloch County Georgia | 68 | Motivated | $295,000 | 32% | 65 | +46% | 105 |
| 59 | Cowley County Kansas | 68 | Motivated | $134,250 | 36% | 35 | +2% | 26 |
| 60 | Dyer County Tennessee | 68 | Motivated | $187,450 | 30% | 46 | +20% | 32 |
| 61 | Hays County Texas | 68 | Motivated | $371,540 | 38% | 60 | +33% | 395 |
| 62 | McDonough County Illinois | 68 | Motivated | $84,000 | 27% | 58 | +1% | 29 |
| 63 | Navarro County Texas | 68 | Motivated | $270,000 | 29% | 63 | +28% | 39 |
| 64 | Washington County Virginia | 68 | Motivated | $296,000 | 25% | 53 | +49% | 57 |
| 65 | Wayne County Georgia | 68 | Motivated | $215,000 | 29% | 59 | +41% | 27 |
| 66 | Williamson County Texas | 68 | Motivated | $408,000 | 37% | 65 | +37% | 1046 |
| 67 | Barron County Wisconsin | 67 | Motivated | $278,000 | 33% | 47 | +39% | 51 |
| 68 | Brown County Texas | 67 | Motivated | $207,000 | 32% | 61 | +30% | 38 |
| 69 | Cherokee County Texas | 67 | Motivated | $275,000 | 35% | 143 | +27% | 29 |
| 70 | Citrus County Florida | 67 | Motivated | $280,000 | 36% | 68 | +57% | 408 |
| 71 | Colleton County South Carolina | 67 | Motivated | $290,000 | 22% | 86 | +40% | 33 |
| 72 | Collin County Texas | 67 | Motivated | $476,000 | 39% | 49 | +62% | 1603 |
| 73 | Effingham County Georgia | 67 | Motivated | $321,000 | 33% | 72 | +36% | 111 |
| 74 | Fayette County Ohio | 67 | Motivated | $228,000 | 29% | 60 | +62% | 29 |
| 75 | Jasper County Georgia | 67 | Motivated | $299,950 | 34% | 60 | +2% | 28 |
| 76 | Lincoln County New Mexico | 67 | Motivated | $359,500 | 22% | 59 | +62% | 31 |
| 77 | Madison County Tennessee | 67 | Motivated | $271,250 | 33% | 40 | +43% | 100 |
| 78 | Maui County Hawaii | 67 | Motivated | $970,000 | 17% | 92 | +37% | 108 |
| 79 | Park County Colorado | 67 | Motivated | $595,000 | 33% | 28 | +38% | 51 |
| 80 | Rusk County Texas | 67 | Motivated | $219,000 | 27% | 59 | +36% | 27 |
| 81 | Sharp County Arkansas | 67 | Motivated | $130,000 | 24% | 123 | +28% | 25 |
| 82 | Van Zandt County Texas | 67 | Motivated | $301,745 | 42% | 73 | +31% | 64 |
| 83 | Wilkes County North Carolina | 67 | Motivated | $289,285 | 35% | 54 | +37% | 40 |
| 84 | Wilson County Texas | 67 | Motivated | $333,900 | 42% | 85 | +27% | 63 |
| 85 | Aroostook County Maine | 66 | Motivated | $151,500 | 21% | 67 | +29% | 56 |
| 86 | Boone County Iowa | 66 | Motivated | $175,000 | 39% | 22 | +27% | 39 |
| 87 | Box Elder County Utah | 66 | Motivated | $420,000 | 38% | 42 | +49% | 62 |
| 88 | Brazoria County Texas | 66 | Motivated | $345,000 | 42% | 59 | +19% | 418 |
| 89 | Campbell County Tennessee | 66 | Motivated | $364,950 | 31% | 113 | +50% | 36 |
| 90 | Cherokee County South Carolina | 66 | Motivated | $199,900 | 23% | 57 | +44% | 39 |
| 91 | Coos County New Hampshire | 66 | Motivated | $262,533 | 17% | 123 | +37% | 31 |
| 92 | Dawson County Georgia | 66 | Motivated | $442,000 | 31% | 49 | +54% | 48 |
| 93 | Garfield County Oklahoma | 66 | Motivated | $167,500 | 23% | 66 | +30% | 50 |
| 94 | Grand County Colorado | 66 | Motivated | $747,500 | 24% | 61 | +34% | 66 |
| 95 | Gulf County Florida | 66 | Motivated | $466,250 | 28% | 120 | +44% | 38 |
| 96 | Hawaii County Hawaii | 66 | Motivated | $470,000 | 24% | 101 | +16% | 190 |
| 97 | Henry County Illinois | 66 | Motivated | $135,000 | 39% | 41 | +1% | 43 |
| 98 | Hernando County Florida | 66 | Motivated | $315,000 | 40% | 60 | +17% | 369 |
| 99 | Hutchinson County Texas | 66 | Motivated | $174,900 | 30% | 47 | +26% | 25 |
| 100 | Levy County Florida | 66 | Motivated | $282,450 | 25% | 76 | +28% | 36 |
Firmest seller markets — least motivated
Tight inventory, few price cuts, fast sales. Sellers here hold the leverage — expect little give on price.
| # | County | SMI | Band | Median Price | Price Cuts | DOM | Inv vs Avg | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Genesee County New York | 14 | Firm | $225,000 | 17% | 12 | -37% | 26 |
| 2 | Union County New Jersey | 15 | Firm | $714,000 | 14% | 19 | -21% | 310 |
| 3 | San Francisco County California | 15 | Firm | $1,770,000 | 15% | 16 | -19% | 561 |
| 4 | Monroe County New York | 18 | Firm | $300,000 | 15% | 8 | -5% | 487 |
| 5 | Saratoga County New York | 19 | Firm | $516,000 | 16% | 10 | -7% | 171 |
| 6 | Kenosha County Wisconsin | 19 | Firm | $366,000 | 13% | 36 | -8% | 143 |
| 7 | Hunterdon County New Jersey | 19 | Firm | $620,000 | 14% | 20 | -5% | 104 |
| 8 | Hartford County Connecticut | 19 | Firm | $400,500 | 18% | 17 | -19% | 670 |
| 9 | Essex County New Jersey | 19 | Firm | $725,000 | 12% | 30 | -14% | 466 |
| 10 | Lucas County Ohio | 20 | Firm | $210,000 | — | 40 | +13% | 474 |
| 11 | Ozaukee County Wisconsin | 21 | Firm | $509,950 | 12% | 39 | +3% | 112 |
| 12 | Marathon County Wisconsin | 21 | Firm | $290,000 | 10% | 49 | +7% | 104 |
| 13 | Winnebago County Illinois | 22 | Firm | $220,000 | 26% | 13 | -29% | 285 |
| 14 | Sussex County New Jersey | 22 | Firm | $475,000 | 19% | 21 | -13% | 148 |
| 15 | Onondaga County New York | 22 | Firm | $287,250 | 18% | 19 | -6% | 230 |
| 16 | Morris County New Jersey | 22 | Firm | $750,000 | 20% | 16 | -12% | 408 |
| 17 | Boone County Illinois | 22 | Firm | $291,800 | 18% | 8 | -7% | 44 |
| 18 | Wayne County New York | 23 | Firm | $254,900 | 15% | 9 | +18% | 41 |
| 19 | Passaic County New Jersey | 23 | Firm | $611,000 | 14% | 30 | -8% | 249 |
| 20 | Westchester County New York | 24 | Firm | $872,500 | 19% | 25 | -8% | 506 |
| 21 | Washington County Wisconsin | 24 | Firm | $430,000 | 12% | 45 | +12% | 181 |
| 22 | Outagamie County Wisconsin | 24 | Firm | $357,500 | 13% | 44 | +11% | 150 |
| 23 | Fairfield County Connecticut | 24 | Firm | $750,000 | 17% | 32 | -6% | 729 |
| 24 | Bergen County New Jersey | 24 | Firm | $790,000 | 10% | 63 | +3% | 534 |
| 25 | Tolland County Connecticut | 25 | Firm | $422,000 | 18% | 19 | -0% | 113 |
How the index is built
- Listing grain (the tool). Seller behavior dominates: days on market (0.45) + price-cut behavior (0.25) — magnitude of the total cut plus a bonus for repeated, accelerating cuts — + an overpricing / market-backdrop term (0.30). An accelerating-cadence adjustment adds up to +2 when a seller cuts three or more times.
- Market grain (the leaderboard). A weighted blend of five already-synced Redfin / FHFA signals: price-cut share (0.30), days on market (0.22), inventory vs long-term average (0.18), sale-to-list negotiation gap (0.15), and price momentum (0.15).
- Motivation-adjusted value. The score maps to an expected discount off list (calibrated so a very high score ≈ 13% below list), producing conservative / fair / competitive / likely-sale offer figures.
- Fair-value anchor. Reuses the AVM-Lite hedonic (county price-per-sqft × bed/bath/sqft/age). Oversized or atypical homes fall back to the market negotiation gap, since price-per-sqft over-values them.
- Volume floor. Counties with under 25 closed sales in the latest period are excluded — small samples dominate the signal below this floor.
Sources: Redfin Data Center (price cuts, DOM, inventory, sale-to-list), FHFA HPI via FRED (momentum). The Seller Motivation Index is a HomeStats metric — not affiliated with, endorsed by, or derived from Reventure App or its "Seller Desperation Score."