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Hernando County, Florida

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$314,000
+33.6% YoY
Active Inventory
1,366
Days on Market
78 days
Price Drops
41.4%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$314,900
-5.4% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$225,000
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
-60.8%
condos outperforming SFR
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
78d / 30d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
3.4 mo
Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
97.4%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
14%
Buyer-favorable

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Hernando County, Florida?

$181/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$362,430
Above median (+15% vs median)
Region median
$314,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 3,311 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 6,622 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 11,037 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 27,592 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $72K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $314K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $276K $168K real
Net gain on $72K upfront: $204K
Range: $276K → $276K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $314K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $346K $128K real
Net gain on $87K contributed: $259K
Range: $142K → $1.07M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $87K total.
Median wealth delta: $71K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$276K$204K$545K$458K$269K rent
2010–2024$276K$204K$560K$472K$284K rent
2009–2023$276K$204K$560K$473K$285K rent
2008–2022$276K$204K$300K$213K$25K rent
2007–2021$276K$204K$381K$294K$106K rent
2006–2020$276K$204K$333K$246K$58K rent
2005–2019$276K$204K$292K$205K$16K rent
2004–2018$276K$204K$242K$155K$33K buy

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+25.0%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
+31.0%
currently 78 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
1,093
Long-Term Avg DOM
60 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+0.0%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2025-10-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
5.0×
stretched
Median Household Income
$63,193
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
201,512
total residents
Total Housing Units
90,991
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
11.5%
elevated
Homeownership Rate
81.8%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
36.1%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
6.3%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
1.1%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+4,239
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
5,617
10,274 people moved in
Outbound Returns
3,544
6,035 people moved out
Net Returns
+2,073
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Pasco, Florida — 2,001 returns
  2. Hillsborough, Florida — 1,318 returns
  3. Pinellas, Florida — 576 returns
  4. Citrus, Florida — 236 returns
  5. Miami-Dade, Florida — 130 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Pasco, Florida — 1,249 returns
  2. Hillsborough, Florida — 590 returns
  3. Citrus, Florida — 426 returns
  4. Pinellas, Florida — 258 returns
  5. Sumter, Florida — 119 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
16,733
8.38% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
6,458
3.23% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
819
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
88%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Florida statewide stats →

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