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Wayne County, New York

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$254,900
+46.1% YoY
Active Inventory
99
Days on Market
9 days
Price Drops
15.2%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$247,450
+7.6% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$172,000
-19.8% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+27.4%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
9d / 10d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
2.4 mo
Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
111.3%
Bidding-war territory

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
68%
Highly competitive

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Wayne County, New York?

$157/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$313,102
Above median (+23% vs median)
Region median
$254,900
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 3,833 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 7,665 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 12,775 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 31,938 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $59K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $255K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $224K $137K real
Net gain on $59K upfront: $165K
Range: $224K → $224K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $255K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $382K $258K real
Net gain on $106K contributed: $276K
Range: $167K → $1.07M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $106K total.
Median wealth delta: $158K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$224K$165K$574K$468K$350K rent
2010–2024$224K$165K$588K$482K$364K rent
2009–2023$224K$165K$576K$470K$352K rent
2008–2022$224K$165K$354K$248K$130K rent
2007–2021$224K$165K$454K$349K$230K rent
2006–2020$224K$165K$392K$287K$168K rent
2005–2019$224K$165K$348K$243K$125K rent
2004–2018$224K$165K$288K$183K$64K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+18.5%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-23.1%
currently 9 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
84
Long-Term Avg DOM
12 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+5.3%
positive — appreciating
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-04-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
21.0%
3.9 pts easier than New York
Loans Actually Made
2,022
537 turned down
Average Loan Made
$173,368
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
3.5×
fair value
Median Household Income
$73,914
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
91,128
total residents
Total Housing Units
42,375
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
9.8%
tight
Homeownership Rate
79.9%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
25.3%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
10.3%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
36.0%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+267
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
1,383
2,240 people moved in
Outbound Returns
1,262
1,973 people moved out
Net Returns
+121
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Monroe, New York — 796 returns
  2. Ontario, New York — 324 returns
  3. Seneca, New York — 68 returns
  4. Cayuga, New York — 65 returns
  5. Onondaga, New York — 46 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Monroe, New York — 693 returns
  2. Ontario, New York — 308 returns
  3. Seneca, New York — 73 returns
  4. Cayuga, New York — 64 returns
  5. Onondaga, New York — 36 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
3,736
4.14% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
510
0.57% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
155
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
92%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See New York statewide stats →

Verify any number on this page: data sources, formulas, and cross-references →