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Williamson County, Texas

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$409,895
-3.6% YoY
Active Inventory
3,899
Days on Market
107 days
Price Drops
33.4%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$414,950
-1.2% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$295,000
-15.1% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+13.9%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
108d / 58d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
4.5 mo
Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
97.4%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
12%
Buyer-favorable

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Williamson County, Texas?

$193/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$386,156
Near median (-6% vs median)
Region median
$409,895
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 3,108 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 6,215 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 10,359 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 25,896 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $94K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $410K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $360K $220K real
Net gain on $94K upfront: $266K
Range: $360K → $360K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $410K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $758K $512K real
Net gain on $246K contributed: $512K
Range: $349K → $2.04M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $246K total.
Median wealth delta: $398K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$360K$266K$1.13M$888K$774K rent
2010–2024$360K$266K$1.16M$913K$800K rent
2009–2023$360K$266K$1.12M$875K$761K rent
2008–2022$360K$266K$746K$500K$386K rent
2007–2021$360K$266K$963K$717K$603K rent
2006–2020$360K$266K$827K$580K$467K rent
2005–2019$360K$266K$740K$493K$380K rent
2004–2018$360K$266K$610K$364K$250K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+21.7%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
+36.2%
currently 107 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
3,205
Long-Term Avg DOM
79 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+1.1%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2025-10-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
3.8×
fair value
Median Household Income
$108,309
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
643,889
total residents
Total Housing Units
251,600
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
3.9%
tight
Homeownership Rate
67.1%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
15.6%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
8.2%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
1.8%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+14,769
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
27,754
49,378 people moved in
Outbound Returns
20,347
34,609 people moved out
Net Returns
+7,407
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Travis, Texas — 12,394 returns
  2. Bell, Texas — 1,126 returns
  3. Harris, Texas — 993 returns
  4. Bexar, Texas — 702 returns
  5. Hays, Texas — 516 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Travis, Texas — 8,377 returns
  2. Bell, Texas — 1,249 returns
  3. Harris, Texas — 740 returns
  4. Hays, Texas — 717 returns
  5. Bexar, Texas — 629 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
63,474
9.97% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
22,039
3.46% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
4,743
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
84%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Texas statewide stats →

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