Hays County, Texas Housing Market

Median Sale Price

$371,540

-6.5% YoY

Active Inventory

2,154

Days on Market

60 days

Price Drops

38.3%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)

Single-Family Median

$389,995

-4.3% YoY

Condo / Co-op Median

$165,000

-44.9% YoY

SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap

+40.6%

SFR outperforming condos

DOM: SFR vs. Condo

60d / 246d

SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin

Months of Supply

5.5 mo

Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio

97.6%

At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List

13%

Buyer-favorable

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Hays County, Texas?

$194/sqft median (Redfin)

Square footage 2,000 sqft

Bedrooms +$0 adj

Bathrooms +$0 adj

Lot size optional

Estimated price

$388,298

Near median (+5% vs median)

Region median

$371,540

all homes

Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?

$600,000

≈ 3,090 sqft

$1,200,000

≈ 6,181 sqft

$2,000,000

≈ 10,301 sqft

$5,000,000

≈ 25,753 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500

Property type:

Home price

Monthly rent

Down %

Rate %

Property tax %

Insurance / yr

Maintenance %

HOA / mo

Home appreciation %

Rent inflation %

Horizon (yrs)

Invest in

After-tax mode (MID, SALT, LTCG, Sec 121) Show inflation-adjusted (real) side-by-side VA loan (0% down, no PMI, funding fee)

BUY + OWN

Median ending wealth $326K $199K real

Net gain on $85K upfront: $241K

Range: $326K → $326K

Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $372K asset comes from the 20% down.

RENT + INVEST

Median ending portfolio $634K $428K real

Net gain on $195K contributed: $439K

Range: $287K → $1.73M

Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $195K total.

Median wealth delta: $308K in favor of RENT + INVEST

What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)

Window	Buy wealth	Buy gain	Rent wealth	Rent gain	Wealth delta
2011–2025	$326K	$241K	$951K	$756K	$625K rent
2010–2024	$326K	$241K	$973K	$777K	$646K rent
2009–2023	$326K	$241K	$945K	$750K	$618K rent
2008–2022	$326K	$241K	$611K	$416K	$285K rent
2007–2021	$326K	$241K	$788K	$593K	$462K rent
2006–2020	$326K	$241K	$678K	$483K	$351K rent
2005–2019	$326K	$241K	$605K	$410K	$279K rent
2004–2018	$326K	$241K	$499K	$304K	$173K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend

Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg

+32.8%

surplus — buyer leverage

DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg

-30.8%

currently 60 days

Long-Term Avg Inventory

1,622

Long-Term Avg DOM

87 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency

State HPI YoY

+1.6%

flat — pressure building

State HPI vs. Peak

0.0%

at or near peak peak 2026-04-01

National Mortgage Delinquency

1.86%

benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025

Applications Denied

21.1%

5.1 pts easier than Texas

Loans Actually Made

7,164

1,914 turned down

Average Loan Made

$378,197

what lenders here actually wrote

National Denial Rate

23.4%

benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income

Value / Income

4.3×

stretched

Median Household Income

$85,827

Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)

Population

256,429

total residents

Total Housing Units

99,775

all units, occupied + vacant

Vacancy Rate

5.3%

tight

Homeownership Rate

64.1%

of occupied units owner-occupied

Boomer Owners (65+)

15.4%

of homeowner households

Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)

8.3%

of homeowner households

Pre-1949 Housing Stock

2.3%

structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data

Net Migration

+6,043

gaining people (2022–2023)

Inbound Returns

10,856

18,712 people moved in

Outbound Returns

7,929

12,669 people moved out

Net Returns

+2,927

household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

Travis, Texas — 5,064 returns
Williamson, Texas — 717 returns
Bexar, Texas — 671 returns
Harris, Texas — 497 returns
Comal, Texas — 425 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

Travis, Texas — 2,606 returns
Comal, Texas — 701 returns
Bexar, Texas — 680 returns
Guadalupe, Texas — 577 returns
Williamson, Texas — 516 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)

Inbound Movers (1 yr)

29,242

11.53% of pop. — moved here from outside the county

From Other States

5,963

2.35% of pop. — interstate inbound

From Abroad

935

moved into the county from outside the U.S.

Same House 1 Year Ago

82%

stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Texas statewide stats →

Verify any number on this page: data sources, formulas, and cross-references →