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Navarro County, Texas

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$270,000
+8.2% YoY
Active Inventory
218
Days on Market
63 days
Price Drops
28.9%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$270,000
-11.5% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$355,000
+7.6% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
-19.1%
condos outperforming SFR
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
63d / 41d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
5.6 mo
Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
96.4%
Below asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
10%
Buyer-favorable

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Navarro County, Texas?

$161/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$322,300
Above median (+19% vs median)
Region median
$270,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 3,723 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 7,446 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 12,411 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 31,027 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $62K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $270K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $237K $145K real
Net gain on $62K upfront: $175K
Range: $237K → $237K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $270K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $556K $394K real
Net gain on $191K contributed: $365K
Range: $259K → $1.46M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $191K total.
Median wealth delta: $319K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$237K$175K$825K$634K$587K rent
2010–2024$237K$175K$842K$652K$605K rent
2009–2023$237K$175K$809K$619K$572K rent
2008–2022$237K$175K$556K$365K$319K rent
2007–2021$237K$175K$719K$529K$482K rent
2006–2020$237K$175K$616K$426K$379K rent
2005–2019$237K$175K$553K$362K$316K rent
2004–2018$237K$175K$456K$265K$219K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+28.3%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-24.3%
currently 63 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
170
Long-Term Avg DOM
83 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+1.6%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-04-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
34.9%
8.7 pts harder than Texas
Loans Actually Made
921
493 turned down
Average Loan Made
$257,595
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
4.5×
stretched
Median Household Income
$59,310
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
53,735
total residents
Total Housing Units
21,790
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
15.2%
high vacancy
Homeownership Rate
68.0%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
23.8%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
8.1%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
12.7%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+721
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
1,003
2,085 people moved in
Outbound Returns
743
1,364 people moved out
Net Returns
+260
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Dallas, Texas — 333 returns
  2. Ellis, Texas — 260 returns
  3. Tarrant, Texas — 115 returns
  4. Henderson, Texas — 61 returns
  5. Freestone, Texas — 42 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Ellis, Texas — 214 returns
  2. Dallas, Texas — 139 returns
  3. Tarrant, Texas — 94 returns
  4. Henderson, Texas — 51 returns
  5. McLennan, Texas — 50 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
3,170
5.98% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
473
0.89% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
150
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
86%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Texas statewide stats →

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