Vacancy Absorption Pace by County
A simple ratio reveals where structural oversupply hides: vacant housing units divided by recent four-week sales velocity. Counties with hundreds of years to absorb their vacant stock at current pace are not "tight markets" — they're absentee-owned, vacation-home-heavy, or permanently soft. Useful for spotting markets where the headline median price masks a glut beneath.
Slowest absorptionOktibbeha CountyMississippi · 343.8 yr to clear vacant stock at current pace
Fastest absorptionFairfax City CountyVirginia · 5.5 mo to clear vacant stock at current pace
Counties tracked3023with both ACS vacancy and Redfin sales data
Slowest absorption — structural oversupply
High absorption time correlates with vacation / second-home counties (Florida coast, Lake Tahoe, Outer Banks), shrinking-population rural, and overbuilt exurban tracts. The headline median price often holds up; the depth-of-buyer side does not.
| # | County | Months to Absorb | Vacant Units | Vacancy Rate | Recent Sales | Median Price | Price YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oktibbeha County Mississippi | 343.8 yr | 4,126 | 16.2% | 1 | $229,900 | +87.1% |
| 2 | Nantucket County Massachusetts | 308.4 yr | 7,401 | 59.5% | 2 | $2,382,500 | -54.5% |
| 3 | McDowell County West Virginia | 241.3 yr | 2,896 | 30.9% | 1 | $75,000 | +97.6% |
| 4 | San Miguel County Colorado | 217.3 yr | 2,608 | 39.5% | 1 | $850,000 | -13.7% |
| 5 | Lauderdale County Mississippi | 208.5 yr | 5,005 | 14.9% | 2 | $124,000 | +726.7% |
| 6 | Scioto County Ohio | 188.2 yr | 4,516 | 13.6% | 2 | $192,500 | +3.9% |
| 7 | Midland County Texas | 187.8 yr | 4,508 | 6.3% | 2 | $414,500 | +11.9% |
| 8 | Lamar County Alabama | 176.7 yr | 2,120 | 29.8% | 1 | $160,000 | -39.0% |
| 9 | Lowndes County Mississippi | 175.6 yr | 4,215 | 15.6% | 2 | $215,000 | +186.7% |
| 10 | Campbell County Wyoming | 172.8 yr | 2,073 | 10.4% | 1 | $275,000 | — |
| 11 | Howard County Texas | 172.7 yr | 2,072 | 14.8% | 1 | $219,400 | +126.7% |
| 12 | Wyoming County West Virginia | 170.8 yr | 2,049 | 20.5% | 1 | $220,000 | +94.7% |
| 13 | Choctaw County Alabama | 165.8 yr | 1,990 | 27.8% | 1 | $23,000 | -82.2% |
| 14 | Nacogdoches County Texas | 161.7 yr | 3,881 | 13.4% | 2 | $148,250 | -48.8% |
| 15 | Attala County Mississippi | 156.2 yr | 1,874 | 22.5% | 1 | $352,700 | +438.5% |
| 16 | Neshoba County Mississippi | 150.1 yr | 1,801 | 14.9% | 1 | $214,000 | +123.7% |
| 17 | Sabine Parish Louisiana | 142.6 yr | 5,133 | 37.7% | 3 | $380,000 | +171.4% |
| 18 | Ector County Texas | 142.2 yr | 5,120 | 7.6% | 3 | $189,000 | +14.5% |
| 19 | Elk County Pennsylvania | 141.5 yr | 3,395 | 20.1% | 2 | $164,150 | +69.2% |
| 20 | Roane County West Virginia | 135.3 yr | 1,624 | 22.7% | 1 | $155,000 | -37.5% |
| 21 | Wilcox County Alabama | 135.1 yr | 1,621 | 30.5% | 1 | $160,000 | — |
| 22 | Zapata County Texas | 133.8 yr | 1,606 | 25.8% | 1 | $105,000 | +28.0% |
| 23 | Sabine County Texas | 133.2 yr | 3,196 | 41.7% | 2 | $290,000 | +93.5% |
| 24 | Webster County West Virginia | 130.8 yr | 1,570 | 35.6% | 1 | $275,000 | +472.9% |
| 25 | Montgomery County Mississippi | 130.2 yr | 1,562 | 29.2% | 1 | $37,000 | -47.1% |
| 26 | Modoc County California | 125.8 yr | 1,510 | 31.6% | 1 | $140,000 | +36.6% |
| 27 | Buchanan County Virginia | 124.5 yr | 2,989 | 28.9% | 2 | $127,075 | -44.8% |
| 28 | Pike County Illinois | 123.4 yr | 1,481 | 20.3% | 1 | $99,000 | -32.9% |
| 29 | Keith County Nebraska | 120.8 yr | 1,449 | 26.9% | 1 | $490,000 | +259.0% |
| 30 | Cibola County New Mexico | 117.4 yr | 2,818 | 25.2% | 2 | $131,000 | -40.9% |
| 31 | Lafayette County Arkansas | 114.7 yr | 1,376 | 34.9% | 1 | $11,750 | — |
| 32 | Catahoula Parish Louisiana | 114.3 yr | 1,371 | 30.8% | 1 | $150,000 | — |
| 33 | Jenkins County Georgia | 113.3 yr | 1,360 | 30.7% | 1 | $150,000 | +1.0% |
| 34 | Bethel Census Area Alaska | 112.3 yr | 1,348 | 22.4% | 1 | $353,000 | -31.1% |
| 35 | Sumter County Georgia | 110.5 yr | 2,651 | 19.6% | 2 | $192,450 | +187.2% |
| 36 | Nome Census Area Alaska | 110.3 yr | 1,323 | 32.2% | 1 | $465,000 | — |
| 37 | Greene County Mississippi | 109.9 yr | 1,319 | 25.7% | 1 | $235,000 | +109.8% |
| 38 | Decatur County Georgia | 109.7 yr | 2,632 | 20.1% | 2 | $186,000 | -13.5% |
| 39 | Clay County Alabama | 108.9 yr | 1,307 | 18.5% | 1 | $475,000 | +70.0% |
| 40 | Clay County Mississippi | 108.9 yr | 1,307 | 14.5% | 1 | $90,000 | — |
| 41 | Valley County Montana | 107.9 yr | 1,295 | 30.4% | 1 | $260,000 | -84.7% |
| 42 | Butler County Alabama | 107.5 yr | 2,579 | 26.2% | 2 | $172,500 | -17.9% |
| 43 | Hamilton County Florida | 106.5 yr | 1,278 | 22.7% | 1 | $205,000 | +26.2% |
| 44 | Florence County Wisconsin | 106.2 yr | 2,549 | 54.7% | 2 | $191,000 | -15.1% |
| 45 | Concordia Parish Louisiana | 102.1 yr | 2,451 | 27.1% | 2 | $73,200 | -23.3% |
| 46 | Socorro County New Mexico | 100.8 yr | 2,420 | 31.7% | 2 | $342,450 | +95.7% |
| 47 | Keweenaw County Michigan | 100.2 yr | 1,202 | 52.4% | 1 | $525,000 | +66.7% |
| 48 | Tensas Parish Louisiana | 97.9 yr | 1,175 | 41.9% | 1 | $945,000 | -25.0% |
| 49 | Wilkinson County Mississippi | 97.0 yr | 1,164 | 25.3% | 1 | $188,500 | +947.2% |
| 50 | Winston County Mississippi | 96.8 yr | 1,161 | 14.1% | 1 | $65,000 | — |
| 51 | Reynolds County Missouri | 96.3 yr | 1,156 | 33.3% | 1 | $114,900 | -21.5% |
| 52 | Mitchell County Texas | 94.7 yr | 1,136 | 30.7% | 1 | $50,000 | — |
| 53 | Alpine County California | 92.8 yr | 1,114 | 70.2% | 1 | $482,000 | — |
| 54 | Bullock County Alabama | 91.8 yr | 1,101 | 24.2% | 1 | $318,244 | +76.9% |
| 55 | Clarke County Alabama | 91.0 yr | 3,275 | 27.9% | 3 | $300,000 | +200.0% |
| 56 | Seward County Kansas | 90.9 yr | 1,091 | 13.2% | 1 | $48,000 | -71.6% |
| 57 | Day County South Dakota | 90.9 yr | 1,091 | 31.8% | 1 | $212,900 | — |
| 58 | Richland County Montana | 90.8 yr | 1,090 | 19.5% | 1 | $322,950 | -18.2% |
| 59 | White County Illinois | 90.2 yr | 1,082 | 16.0% | 1 | $80,000 | — |
| 60 | Roosevelt County Montana | 89.2 yr | 1,070 | 26.4% | 1 | $41,000 | -77.8% |
| 61 | Charlevoix County Michigan | 88.9 yr | 5,331 | 30.3% | 5 | $430,000 | -26.2% |
| 62 | Lee County Arkansas | 88.8 yr | 1,066 | 28.8% | 1 | $70,000 | -81.9% |
| 63 | Presidio County Texas | 86.7 yr | 1,040 | 30.8% | 1 | $410,000 | -13.1% |
| 64 | Dillingham Census Area Alaska | 86.1 yr | 1,033 | 42.8% | 1 | $470,000 | — |
| 65 | Lake and Peninsula Borough Alaska | 86.1 yr | 1,033 | 76.2% | 1 | $275,000 | — |
| 66 | Monroe County Arkansas | 85.3 yr | 1,024 | 26.6% | 1 | $148,500 | — |
| 67 | Tippah County Mississippi | 85.3 yr | 2,046 | 20.6% | 2 | $323,000 | +188.4% |
| 68 | Jefferson County Mississippi | 84.3 yr | 1,011 | 29.9% | 1 | $228,000 | — |
| 69 | Leslie County Kentucky | 83.7 yr | 1,004 | 20.4% | 1 | $200,000 | +135.3% |
| 70 | Dimmit County Texas | 83.5 yr | 1,002 | 25.0% | 1 | $299,999 | -25.0% |
| 71 | Clay County West Virginia | 82.1 yr | 985 | 25.0% | 1 | $347,500 | +124.2% |
| 72 | Greenlee County Arizona | 81.5 yr | 978 | 22.1% | 1 | $267,464 | — |
| 73 | Reeves County Texas | 81.1 yr | 973 | 19.0% | 1 | $290,000 | +2.8% |
| 74 | Brooks County Texas | 81.0 yr | 972 | 25.2% | 1 | $125,000 | — |
| 75 | Cumberland County Kentucky | 80.8 yr | 969 | 28.5% | 1 | $699,000 | +193.7% |
Fastest absorption — buyer-saturated
Tight markets where vacant inventory clears in months. Read with caution: a fast pace plus low vacancy can equally indicate a small, healthy local market or a tiny absolute count where a few transactions distort the ratio.
| # | County | Months to Absorb | Vacant Units | Vacancy Rate | Recent Sales | Median Price | Price YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairfax City County Virginia | 5.5 mo | 159 | 1.7% | 29 | $810,000 | +0.9% |
| 2 | Canyon County Idaho | 5.5 mo | 2,719 | 3.2% | 495 | $443,000 | +2.7% |
| 3 | Kendall County Illinois | 5.6 mo | 1,249 | 2.7% | 224 | $400,000 | +1.3% |
| 4 | Carver County Minnesota | 6.3 mo | 1,164 | 2.8% | 185 | $460,620 | -3.4% |
| 5 | Scott County Minnesota | 6.6 mo | 1,449 | 2.6% | 220 | $454,445 | +1.0% |
| 6 | Hancock County Indiana | 6.6 mo | 1,152 | 3.5% | 174 | $349,745 | -2.6% |
| 7 | Union County Ohio | 6.7 mo | 803 | 3.3% | 120 | $514,570 | +3.8% |
| 8 | Douglas County Colorado | 7.2 mo | 4,412 | 3.1% | 616 | $719,900 | +0.5% |
| 9 | Boone County Indiana | 7.2 mo | 1,071 | 3.7% | 148 | $410,300 | -1.1% |
| 10 | Williamson County Tennessee | 7.5 mo | 3,702 | 3.9% | 496 | $992,500 | +6.3% |
| 11 | Lincoln County South Dakota | 7.5 mo | 907 | 3.3% | 121 | $389,290 | +11.2% |
| 12 | Loudoun County Virginia | 7.5 mo | 3,981 | 2.8% | 530 | $795,000 | +2.6% |
| 13 | Ada County Idaho | 7.8 mo | 8,368 | 4.1% | 1074 | $553,000 | -2.1% |
| 14 | Sarpy County Nebraska | 8.2 mo | 2,632 | 3.5% | 321 | $385,990 | +2.9% |
| 15 | Tooele County Utah | 8.4 mo | 1,088 | 4.5% | 129 | $466,000 | +0.1% |
| 16 | Hendricks County Indiana | 8.6 mo | 2,594 | 3.8% | 302 | $350,000 | +0.0% |
| 17 | Dallas County Iowa | 8.7 mo | 2,327 | 5.4% | 268 | $369,963 | -3.3% |
| 18 | Dakota County Minnesota | 8.7 mo | 4,817 | 2.7% | 554 | $404,450 | -0.1% |
| 19 | Prince William County Virginia | 9.2 mo | 5,647 | 3.5% | 617 | $599,945 | +4.2% |
| 20 | Washington County Minnesota | 9.2 mo | 3,624 | 3.4% | 394 | $430,000 | -1.1% |
| 21 | New Kent County Virginia | 9.4 mo | 461 | 4.9% | 49 | $463,000 | -0.4% |
| 22 | Williamson County Texas | 9.4 mo | 9,846 | 3.9% | 1046 | $408,000 | -4.0% |
| 23 | Anoka County Minnesota | 9.4 mo | 4,075 | 2.9% | 432 | $376,250 | +0.3% |
| 24 | Elbert County Colorado | 9.6 mo | 536 | 5.3% | 56 | $677,000 | +0.3% |
| 25 | Chesterfield County Virginia | 9.8 mo | 5,576 | 3.9% | 571 | $430,000 | +2.6% |
| 26 | Weld County Colorado | 9.9 mo | 5,014 | 4.0% | 509 | $495,000 | -1.8% |
| 27 | Rockwall County Texas | 10.0 mo | 1,913 | 4.6% | 192 | $420,000 | -0.6% |
| 28 | Adams County Colorado | 10.1 mo | 6,801 | 3.5% | 676 | $515,000 | -0.6% |
| 29 | Barrow County Georgia | 10.1 mo | 1,528 | 4.9% | 151 | $359,900 | -1.0% |
| 30 | Utah County Utah | 10.2 mo | 7,706 | 3.8% | 758 | $549,945 | +7.5% |
Method
- Months to absorb = ACS B25002 vacant units / Redfin recent four-week sales count. Sales are a four-week sample, so multiply by ~4.3 weeks-per-month for an approximate monthly rate, then divide.
- Vacancy rate = ACS B25002 vacant / total housing units. Used for absolute scale.
- Distinguishes vacation from oversupply. Vacancy rate above 30% in beach / mountain / lake counties is structural (second homes); above 30% in metro / industrial counties is structural distress.
- Sales count is volatile in small counties. Counties with under 20 four-week sales produce noisy ratios; we don't filter them out, but interpret carefully.
Sources: U.S. Census ACS B25002, Redfin Data Center.