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Chaffee County, Colorado

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$780,000
+37.1% YoY
Active Inventory
201
Days on Market
103 days
Price Drops
18.9%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$804,500
+7.6% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$694,500
+39.2% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
-31.6%
condos outperforming SFR
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
95d / 170d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
8.0 mo
Buyer market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
97.7%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
4%
Buyer-favorable

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Chaffee County, Colorado?

$428/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$856,531
Near median (+10% vs median)
Region median
$780,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 1,401 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 2,802 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 4,670 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 11,675 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $179K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $780K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $685K $418K real
Net gain on $179K upfront: $506K
Range: $685K → $685K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $780K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $2.31M $1.55M real
Net gain on $901K contributed: $1.41M
Range: $1.11M → $5.71M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $901K total.
Median wealth delta: $1.63M in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$685K$506K$3.35M$2.45M$2.66M rent
2010–2024$685K$506K$3.41M$2.51M$2.73M rent
2009–2023$685K$506K$3.23M$2.33M$2.54M rent
2008–2022$685K$506K$2.42M$1.52M$1.73M rent
2007–2021$685K$506K$3.14M$2.24M$2.46M rent
2006–2020$685K$506K$2.68M$1.77M$1.99M rent
2005–2019$685K$506K$2.42M$1.52M$1.73M rent
2004–2018$685K$506K$1.99M$1.09M$1.30M rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+28.8%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
+60.7%
currently 103 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
156
Long-Term Avg DOM
64 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+1.3%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2025-10-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
11.0×
severely overvalued
Median Household Income
$70,909
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
19,876
total residents
Total Housing Units
11,315
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
18.7%
high vacancy
Homeownership Rate
72.9%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
32.3%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
5.9%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
14.8%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+296
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
395
607 people moved in
Outbound Returns
220
311 people moved out
Net Returns
+175
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Jefferson, Colorado — 80 returns
  2. Denver, Colorado — 72 returns
  3. El Paso, Colorado — 64 returns
  4. Fremont, Colorado — 40 returns
  5. Boulder, Colorado — 35 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. El Paso, Colorado — 56 returns
  2. Fremont, Colorado — 49 returns
  3. Denver, Colorado — 45 returns
  4. Jefferson, Colorado — 29 returns
  5. Adams, Colorado — 21 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
1,398
7.05% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
369
1.86% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
14
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
88%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Colorado statewide stats →

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