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El Paso County, Colorado

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
—
—
Active Inventory
3,409
Days on Market
—
Price Drops
29.1%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
—
Condo / Co-op Median
—

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
% Sold Above List
25%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $81K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $350K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $307K $188K real
Net gain on $81K upfront: $227K
Range: $307K → $307K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $350K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $591K $399K real
Net gain on $180K contributed: $411K
Range: $267K → $1.61M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $180K total.
Median wealth delta: $284K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$307K$227K$886K$706K$579K rent
2010–2024$307K$227K$906K$726K$599K rent
2009–2023$307K$227K$881K$701K$574K rent
2008–2022$307K$227K$568K$387K$261K rent
2007–2021$307K$227K$732K$551K$424K rent
2006–2020$307K$227K$629K$449K$322K rent
2005–2019$307K$227K$562K$381K$254K rent
2004–2018$307K$227K$464K$283K$156K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+14.6%
surplus — buyer leverage
Long-Term Avg Inventory
2,974

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+1.3%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2025-10-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Median Household Income
$87,470
Census ACS B19013

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
736,008
total residents
Total Housing Units
296,753
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
4.6%
tight
Homeownership Rate
66.4%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
18.1%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
10.2%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
6.3%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+2,203
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
20,928
37,658 people moved in
Outbound Returns
19,600
35,455 people moved out
Net Returns
+1,328
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Arapahoe, Colorado — 808 returns
  2. Douglas, Colorado — 729 returns
  3. Denver, Colorado — 726 returns
  4. Pueblo, Colorado — 657 returns
  5. Maricopa, Arizona — 541 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Pueblo, Colorado — 905 returns
  2. Denver, Colorado — 865 returns
  3. Douglas, Colorado — 765 returns
  4. Arapahoe, Colorado — 679 returns
  5. Maricopa, Arizona — 538 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
71,186
9.79% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
49,348
6.79% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
5,899
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
81%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Looking for state-level data? See Colorado statewide stats →

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