Which Jobs Can Afford a Home Where
Real wages from the BLS Occupational Employment Statistics survey, tested against a 28%-DTI mortgage on each state's median home at the current FRED 30-year rate (6.76%). Then layered with the Goldman/OpenAI AI-exposure estimate for that occupation. The honest answer to "can my career afford this market — and will my career still exist in five years?"
Easiest state to afford a home Iowa 50% of major occupations clear the threshold
Hardest state to afford a home Wyoming 0% of occupations clear; threshold $116,325
U.S. median affordability bar $99,571 salary required to clear 28% DTI on the median state's median home
States ranked by share of occupations that can afford a home
"Affording" = the occupation's median wage clears 28% of gross monthly income covering a 30-year mortgage at current rates on the state's median home. AI-resilient jobs are those with under 25% estimated AI exposure (healthcare, construction, food service).
| # | State | Affording Jobs | Median Home | Salary Required | AI-Resilient Affording | Top Affording Job |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iowa | 5 / 10 (50%) | $258,700 | $64,786 | 2 jobs | Management ($102,000) |
| 2 | Louisiana | 5 / 10 (50%) | $269,000 | $67,366 | 2 jobs | Management ($102,000) |
| 3 | Ohio | 5 / 10 (50%) | $282,600 | $70,772 | 2 jobs | Management ($110,000) |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 5 / 10 (50%) | $264,600 | $66,264 | 2 jobs | Management ($100,000) |
| 5 | Illinois | 4 / 10 (40%) | $337,900 | $84,620 | 1 jobs | Management ($125,000) |
| 6 | Michigan | 4 / 10 (40%) | $297,900 | $74,603 | 1 jobs | Management ($112,000) |
| 7 | Missouri | 4 / 10 (40%) | $297,500 | $74,503 | 1 jobs | Management ($108,000) |
| 8 | Arkansas | 3 / 10 (30%) | $275,500 | $68,993 | 1 jobs | Management ($98,000) |
| 9 | Indiana | 3 / 10 (30%) | $287,300 | $71,949 | 1 jobs | Management ($105,000) |
| 10 | Kentucky | 3 / 10 (30%) | $284,400 | $71,222 | 1 jobs | Management ($100,000) |
| 11 | Pennsylvania | 3 / 10 (30%) | $330,200 | $82,692 | 0 jobs | Management ($118,000) |
| 12 | Texas | 3 / 10 (30%) | $356,100 | $89,178 | 1 jobs | Management ($118,000) |
| 13 | West Virginia | 3 / 10 (30%) | $265,200 | $66,414 | 1 jobs | Management ($92,000) |
| 14 | Alabama | 2 / 10 (20%) | $312,600 | $78,284 | 0 jobs | Management ($105,000) |
| 15 | Kansas | 2 / 10 (20%) | $316,300 | $79,211 | 0 jobs | Management ($105,000) |
| 16 | Minnesota | 2 / 10 (20%) | $372,300 | $93,235 | 0 jobs | Management ($120,000) |
| 17 | Mississippi | 2 / 10 (20%) | $284,300 | $71,197 | 0 jobs | Management ($92,000) |
| 18 | North Dakota | 2 / 10 (20%) | $311,200 | $77,934 | 1 jobs | Management ($105,000) |
| 19 | Alaska | 1 / 10 (10%) | $427,100 | $106,959 | 0 jobs | Management ($115,000) |
| 20 | Connecticut | 1 / 10 (10%) | $498,000 | $124,714 | 0 jobs | Management ($130,000) |
| 21 | Delaware | 1 / 10 (10%) | $384,500 | $96,290 | 0 jobs | Management ($118,000) |
| 22 | Florida | 1 / 10 (10%) | $421,500 | $105,556 | 0 jobs | Management ($110,000) |
| 23 | Georgia | 1 / 10 (10%) | $389,000 | $97,417 | 0 jobs | Management ($115,000) |
| 24 | Maryland | 1 / 10 (10%) | $477,300 | $119,530 | 0 jobs | Management ($125,000) |
| 25 | Nebraska | 1 / 10 (10%) | $319,100 | $79,912 | 0 jobs | Management ($105,000) |
| 26 | New Mexico | 1 / 10 (10%) | $395,500 | $99,045 | 0 jobs | Management ($100,000) |
| 27 | North Carolina | 1 / 10 (10%) | $397,600 | $99,571 | 0 jobs | Management ($112,000) |
| 28 | South Carolina | 1 / 10 (10%) | $394,000 | $98,669 | 0 jobs | Management ($105,000) |
| 29 | South Dakota | 1 / 10 (10%) | $346,600 | $86,799 | 0 jobs | Management ($100,000) |
| 30 | Tennessee | 1 / 10 (10%) | $413,200 | $103,478 | 0 jobs | Management ($108,000) |
| 31 | Virginia | 1 / 10 (10%) | $499,300 | $125,040 | 0 jobs | Management ($128,000) |
| 32 | Wisconsin | 1 / 10 (10%) | $361,600 | $90,555 | 0 jobs | Management ($112,000) |
| 33 | Arizona | 0 / 10 (0%) | $453,800 | $113,645 | 0 jobs | — |
| 34 | California | 0 / 10 (0%) | $887,400 | $222,232 | 0 jobs | — |
| 35 | Colorado | 0 / 10 (0%) | $617,000 | $154,515 | 0 jobs | — |
| 36 | Hawaii | 0 / 10 (0%) | $741,300 | $185,644 | 0 jobs | — |
| 37 | Idaho | 0 / 10 (0%) | $503,400 | $126,066 | 0 jobs | — |
| 38 | Maine | 0 / 10 (0%) | $439,200 | $109,989 | 0 jobs | — |
| 39 | Massachusetts | 0 / 10 (0%) | $688,100 | $172,321 | 0 jobs | — |
| 40 | Montana | 0 / 10 (0%) | $528,600 | $132,377 | 0 jobs | — |
| 41 | Nevada | 0 / 10 (0%) | $481,200 | $120,507 | 0 jobs | — |
| 42 | New Hampshire | 0 / 10 (0%) | $537,900 | $134,706 | 0 jobs | — |
| 43 | New Jersey | 0 / 10 (0%) | $579,900 | $145,224 | 0 jobs | — |
| 44 | New York | 0 / 10 (0%) | $620,500 | $155,392 | 0 jobs | — |
| 45 | Oregon | 0 / 10 (0%) | $525,500 | $131,601 | 0 jobs | — |
| 46 | Rhode Island | 0 / 10 (0%) | $536,900 | $134,456 | 0 jobs | — |
| 47 | Utah | 0 / 10 (0%) | $560,200 | $140,291 | 0 jobs | — |
| 48 | Vermont | 0 / 10 (0%) | $448,400 | $112,293 | 0 jobs | — |
| 49 | Washington | 0 / 10 (0%) | $651,800 | $163,230 | 0 jobs | — |
| 50 | Wyoming | 0 / 10 (0%) | $464,500 | $116,325 | 0 jobs | — |
By occupation: which jobs can afford the most states
Pick a career and see how many U.S. states it can afford a median home in. Construction and healthcare lines combine high affording-state count with low AI exposure — the durable-career sweet spot.
| # | Occupation Group | U.S. Median Wage | States Affording | AI Exposure | Risk Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Management | $110,000 | 32 / 50 | 28% | Moderate |
| 2 | Computer/Math | $88,000 | 17 / 50 | 32% | High exposure |
| 3 | Architecture/Engineering | $80,000 | 13 / 50 | 24% | Moderate |
| 4 | Legal | $78,000 | 8 / 50 | 44% | High exposure |
| 5 | Healthcare Practitioners | $72,000 | 4 / 50 | 15% | Moderate |
| 6 | Business/Financial | $65,000 | 0 / 50 | 35% | High exposure |
| 7 | Education/Training | $50,000 | 0 / 49 | 27% | Moderate |
| 8 | Construction/Extraction | $44,000 | 0 / 50 | 6% | AI-resilient |
| 9 | Production | $38,000 | 0 / 50 | 12% | AI-resilient |
| 10 | Food Prep/Serving | $26,000 | 0 / 50 | 5% | AI-resilient |
Method & caveats
- Affordability test = 28% DTI. Monthly P&I on a 30-year mortgage at current FRED 30-year rate, on each state's Redfin median home price (10% down, taxes/insurance excluded). Annual = monthly × 12. Threshold to "afford" = monthly P&I × 12 ÷ 0.28.
- BLS OES is metro/state, not ZIP. Wages are state-aggregated. A nurse in Boise vs. one in Coeur d'Alene will see different real wages — surface those at the city/county pages.
- AI exposure is a 10-year directional estimate. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (March 2023) and OpenAI/UPenn (Eloundou et al. 2023) bracket exposure. Real outcomes will deviate; treat as risk tier, not forecast.
- Why this matters. Buying a home is a 7–10 year mistake if your career disappears in year 4. The AI-resilient × affording filter is the durable signal.
Sources: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics, Redfin Data Center, FRED 30-year mortgage rate, Goldman Sachs AI exposure analysis, Eloundou et al. "GPTs are GPTs".