Redfin home price, sales and inventory figures run through September 2026. Other sources still update weekly. Why
Which Jobs Can Afford a Home Where
Real wages from the BLS Occupational Employment Statistics survey, tested against a 28%-DTI mortgage on each state's median home at the current FRED 30-year rate (7.18%). Then layered with the Goldman/OpenAI AI-exposure estimate for that occupation. The honest answer to "can my career afford this market — and will my career still exist in five years?"
Easiest state to afford a home Iowa 50% of major occupations clear the threshold
Hardest state to afford a home Wyoming 0% of occupations clear; threshold $103,177
U.S. median affordability bar $97,681 salary required to clear 28% DTI on the median state's median home
States ranked by share of occupations that can afford a home
"Affording" = the occupation's median wage clears 28% of gross monthly income covering a 30-year mortgage at current rates on the state's median home. AI-resilient jobs are those with under 25% estimated AI exposure (healthcare, construction, food service).
| # | State | Affording Jobs | Median Home | Salary Required | AI-Resilient Affording | Top Affording Job |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iowa | 5 / 10 (50%) | $249,284 | $65,137 | 2 jobs | Management ($102,000) |
| 2 | Louisiana | 5 / 10 (50%) | $253,262 | $66,176 | 2 jobs | Management ($102,000) |
| 3 | Ohio | 5 / 10 (50%) | $269,226 | $70,348 | 2 jobs | Management ($110,000) |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 5 / 10 (50%) | $257,261 | $67,221 | 2 jobs | Management ($100,000) |
| 5 | Illinois | 4 / 10 (40%) | $323,321 | $84,483 | 1 jobs | Management ($125,000) |
| 6 | Michigan | 4 / 10 (40%) | $289,069 | $75,533 | 1 jobs | Management ($112,000) |
| 7 | Missouri | 4 / 10 (40%) | $286,178 | $74,777 | 1 jobs | Management ($108,000) |
| 8 | Indiana | 3 / 10 (30%) | $277,602 | $72,536 | 1 jobs | Management ($105,000) |
| 9 | Kansas | 3 / 10 (30%) | $285,318 | $74,553 | 1 jobs | Management ($105,000) |
| 10 | Pennsylvania | 3 / 10 (30%) | $314,097 | $82,072 | 0 jobs | Management ($118,000) |
| 11 | Texas | 3 / 10 (30%) | $329,054 | $85,981 | 1 jobs | Management ($118,000) |
| 12 | West Virginia | 3 / 10 (30%) | $259,255 | $67,742 | 1 jobs | Management ($92,000) |
| 13 | Alabama | 2 / 10 (20%) | $299,440 | $78,243 | 0 jobs | Management ($105,000) |
| 14 | Arkansas | 2 / 10 (20%) | $276,206 | $72,172 | 0 jobs | Management ($98,000) |
| 15 | Kentucky | 2 / 10 (20%) | $284,183 | $74,256 | 0 jobs | Management ($100,000) |
| 16 | Minnesota | 2 / 10 (20%) | $353,036 | $92,247 | 0 jobs | Management ($120,000) |
| 17 | Mississippi | 2 / 10 (20%) | $268,728 | $70,218 | 0 jobs | Management ($92,000) |
| 18 | Alaska | 1 / 10 (10%) | $415,805 | $108,648 | 0 jobs | Management ($115,000) |
| 19 | Connecticut | 1 / 10 (10%) | $448,711 | $117,247 | 0 jobs | Management ($130,000) |
| 20 | Delaware | 1 / 10 (10%) | $395,359 | $103,306 | 0 jobs | Management ($118,000) |
| 21 | Florida | 1 / 10 (10%) | $383,897 | $100,311 | 0 jobs | Management ($110,000) |
| 22 | Georgia | 1 / 10 (10%) | $356,812 | $93,234 | 0 jobs | Management ($115,000) |
| 23 | Maryland | 1 / 10 (10%) | $428,768 | $112,035 | 0 jobs | Management ($125,000) |
| 24 | Nebraska | 1 / 10 (10%) | $304,126 | $79,467 | 0 jobs | Management ($105,000) |
| 25 | New Mexico | 1 / 10 (10%) | $359,467 | $93,927 | 0 jobs | Management ($100,000) |
| 26 | New York | 1 / 10 (10%) | $523,496 | $136,788 | 0 jobs | Management ($140,000) |
| 27 | North Carolina | 1 / 10 (10%) | $370,403 | $96,785 | 0 jobs | Management ($112,000) |
| 28 | North Dakota | 1 / 10 (10%) | $314,097 | $82,072 | 0 jobs | Management ($105,000) |
| 29 | South Carolina | 1 / 10 (10%) | $348,997 | $91,192 | 0 jobs | Management ($105,000) |
| 30 | South Dakota | 1 / 10 (10%) | $340,023 | $88,847 | 0 jobs | Management ($100,000) |
| 31 | Tennessee | 1 / 10 (10%) | $373,833 | $97,681 | 0 jobs | Management ($108,000) |
| 32 | Virginia | 1 / 10 (10%) | $423,683 | $110,707 | 0 jobs | Management ($128,000) |
| 33 | Wisconsin | 1 / 10 (10%) | $342,618 | $89,525 | 0 jobs | Management ($112,000) |
| 34 | Arizona | 0 / 10 (0%) | $437,289 | $114,262 | 0 jobs | — |
| 35 | California | 0 / 10 (0%) | $752,837 | $196,714 | 0 jobs | — |
| 36 | Colorado | 0 / 10 (0%) | $540,846 | $141,321 | 0 jobs | — |
| 37 | Hawaii | 0 / 10 (0%) | $752,837 | $196,714 | 0 jobs | — |
| 38 | Idaho | 0 / 10 (0%) | $493,582 | $128,971 | 0 jobs | — |
| 39 | Maine | 0 / 10 (0%) | $421,190 | $110,055 | 0 jobs | — |
| 40 | Massachusetts | 0 / 10 (0%) | $638,166 | $166,750 | 0 jobs | — |
| 41 | Montana | 0 / 10 (0%) | $518,211 | $135,407 | 0 jobs | — |
| 42 | Nevada | 0 / 10 (0%) | $467,158 | $122,067 | 0 jobs | — |
| 43 | New Hampshire | 0 / 10 (0%) | $529,479 | $138,351 | 0 jobs | — |
| 44 | New Jersey | 0 / 10 (0%) | $558,395 | $145,907 | 0 jobs | — |
| 45 | Oregon | 0 / 10 (0%) | $504,949 | $131,941 | 0 jobs | — |
| 46 | Rhode Island | 0 / 10 (0%) | $538,403 | $140,683 | 0 jobs | — |
| 47 | Utah | 0 / 10 (0%) | $531,423 | $138,859 | 0 jobs | — |
| 48 | Vermont | 0 / 10 (0%) | $423,782 | $110,733 | 0 jobs | — |
| 49 | Washington | 0 / 10 (0%) | $590,204 | $154,218 | 0 jobs | — |
| 50 | Wyoming | 0 / 10 (0%) | $394,865 | $103,177 | 0 jobs | — |
By occupation: which jobs can afford the most states
Pick a career and see how many U.S. states it can afford a median home in. Construction and healthcare lines combine high affording-state count with low AI exposure — the durable-career sweet spot.
| # | Occupation Group | U.S. Median Wage | States Affording | AI Exposure | Risk Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Management | $110,000 | 33 / 50 | 28% | Moderate |
| 2 | Computer/Math | $88,000 | 17 / 50 | 32% | High exposure |
| 3 | Architecture/Engineering | $80,000 | 11 / 50 | 24% | Moderate |
| 4 | Legal | $78,000 | 8 / 50 | 44% | High exposure |
| 5 | Healthcare Practitioners | $72,000 | 4 / 50 | 15% | Moderate |
| 6 | Business/Financial | $65,000 | 0 / 50 | 35% | High exposure |
| 7 | Education/Training | $50,000 | 0 / 49 | 27% | Moderate |
| 8 | Construction/Extraction | $44,000 | 0 / 50 | 6% | AI-resilient |
| 9 | Production | $38,000 | 0 / 50 | 12% | AI-resilient |
| 10 | Food Prep/Serving | $26,000 | 0 / 50 | 5% | AI-resilient |
Method & caveats
- Affordability test = 28% DTI. Monthly P&I on a 30-year mortgage at current FRED 30-year rate, on each state's Redfin median home price (10% down, taxes/insurance excluded). Annual = monthly × 12. Threshold to "afford" = monthly P&I × 12 ÷ 0.28.
- BLS OES is metro/state, not ZIP. Wages are state-aggregated. A nurse in Boise vs. one in Coeur d'Alene will see different real wages — surface those at the city/county pages.
- AI exposure is a 10-year directional estimate. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (March 2023) and OpenAI/UPenn (Eloundou et al. 2023) bracket exposure. Real outcomes will deviate; treat as risk tier, not forecast.
- Why this matters. Buying a home is a 7–10 year mistake if your career disappears in year 4. The AI-resilient × affording filter is the durable signal.
Sources: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics, Redfin Data Center, FRED 30-year mortgage rate, Goldman Sachs AI exposure analysis, Eloundou et al. "GPTs are GPTs".