10-Year Homeowners Insurance Cost Projection
First Street's Risk Factor sells climate-adjusted insurance projections to enterprise underwriters. The directional question — "if I buy this house, what is the insurance line going to look like in 10 years?" — is answerable from the current NAIC average premium, the FEMA National Risk Index hazard score, and a national 7% baseline trend rate adjusted by hazard exposure. Below is that projection, free.
Highest 10-yr projected premium Florida $4,231 → $12,728 (+201%)
Fastest premium rise California 12.0% compound · +211% 10-yr increase
Lowest 10-yr projected premium Vermont $1,120 → $1,490 (hazard Very Low)
States ranked by 10-year projected insurance cost
Premiums shown are state averages. Coastal counties, wildfire-urban-interface ZIPs, and tornado-alley sub-state pockets will exceed these state-level projections; inland and low-hazard sub-state areas will fall below. Use as a directional underwrite, not a quote.
| # | State | Current | 5-year | 10-year | 10-yr Δ | Annual Rate | Hazard | Top Hazards | Recent FEMA Decl. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | $4,231 | $7,338 | $12,728 | +201% | 11.6% | Relatively High | Hurricane, Coastal Flooding, Strong Wind | 979 |
| 2 | Texas | $3,875 | $6,775 | $11,845 | +206% | 11.8% | Relatively High | Tornado, Heat Wave, Cold Wave | 1349 |
| 3 | Louisiana | $3,600 | $5,855 | $9,521 | +164% | 10.2% | Relatively Moderate | Hurricane, Tornado, Coastal Flooding | 1132 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | $4,334 | $6,284 | $9,112 | +110% | 7.7% | Relatively Moderate | Tornado, Heat Wave, Cold Wave | 552 |
| 5 | Kansas | $3,931 | $5,513 | $7,733 | +97% | 7.0% | Relatively Low | Winter Weather, Tornado, Cold Wave | 461 |
| 6 | Nebraska | $4,148 | $5,532 | $7,379 | +78% | 5.9% | Relatively Low | Tornado, Drought, Hail | 372 |
| 7 | Colorado | $3,349 | $4,816 | $6,925 | +107% | 7.5% | Relatively Moderate | Winter Weather, Lightning, Wildfire | 164 |
| 8 | Missouri | $2,417 | $3,995 | $6,602 | +173% | 10.6% | Relatively Moderate | Heat Wave, Tornado, Cold Wave | 409 |
| 9 | Illinois | $2,087 | $3,591 | $6,178 | +196% | 11.5% | Relatively High | Cold Wave, Strong Wind, Tornado | 249 |
| 10 | Georgia | $2,330 | $3,759 | $6,063 | +160% | 10.0% | Relatively Moderate | Tornado, Cold Wave, Strong Wind | 849 |
| 11 | Alabama | $2,738 | $4,070 | $6,049 | +121% | 8.3% | Relatively Moderate | Tornado, Cold Wave, Lightning | 379 |
| 12 | Arizona | $2,247 | $3,684 | $6,040 | +169% | 10.4% | Relatively Moderate | Heat Wave, Flooding, Wildfire | 105 |
| 13 | North Carolina | $2,074 | $3,512 | $5,946 | +187% | 11.1% | Relatively Moderate | Winter Weather, Hurricane, Tornado | 809 |
| 14 | Tennessee | $2,423 | $3,783 | $5,908 | +144% | 9.3% | Relatively Moderate | Earthquake, Tornado, Cold Wave | 741 |
| 15 | Kentucky | $2,624 | $3,836 | $5,609 | +114% | 7.9% | Relatively Moderate | Tornado, Cold Wave, Winter Weather | 1206 |
| 16 | California | $1,784 | $3,144 | $5,541 | +211% | 12.0% | Very High | Earthquake, Flooding, Wildfire | 427 |
| 17 | South Carolina | $2,297 | $3,557 | $5,510 | +140% | 9.1% | Relatively Moderate | Hurricane, Coastal Flooding, Cold Wave | 449 |
| 18 | Mississippi | $2,756 | $3,801 | $5,243 | +90% | 6.6% | Relatively Low | Tornado, Cold Wave | 762 |
| 19 | New York | $1,844 | $3,097 | $5,202 | +182% | 10.9% | Relatively Moderate | Winter Weather, Flooding, Coastal Flooding | 252 |
| 20 | Arkansas | $2,562 | $3,563 | $4,956 | +93% | 6.8% | Relatively Low | Tornado, Winter Weather | 476 |
| 21 | Michigan | $2,064 | $3,171 | $4,870 | +136% | 9.0% | Relatively Moderate | Winter Weather, Strong Wind, Tornado | 223 |
| 22 | Minnesota | $2,007 | $3,033 | $4,583 | +128% | 8.6% | Relatively Moderate | Winter Weather, Strong Wind, Tornado | 339 |
| 23 | South Dakota | $2,734 | $3,436 | $4,319 | +58% | 4.7% | Relatively Low | Cold Wave, Winter Weather | 377 |
| 24 | Washington | $1,417 | $2,419 | $4,128 | +191% | 11.3% | Relatively Moderate | Earthquake, Coastal Flooding, Wildfire | 329 |
| 25 | Pennsylvania | $1,443 | $2,404 | $4,006 | +178% | 10.8% | Relatively Moderate | Winter Weather, Flooding, Heat Wave | 160 |
| 26 | New Jersey | $1,530 | $2,448 | $3,917 | +156% | 9.9% | Relatively Moderate | Coastal Flooding, Winter Weather, Strong Wind | 104 |
| 27 | Ohio | $1,516 | $2,387 | $3,757 | +148% | 9.5% | Relatively Moderate | Tornado, Flooding, Cold Wave | 187 |
| 28 | Iowa | $1,843 | $2,607 | $3,686 | +100% | 7.2% | Relatively Low | Tornado, Cold Wave, Drought | 330 |
| 29 | Montana | $2,341 | $2,917 | $3,636 | +55% | 4.5% | Relatively Low | Winter Weather, Cold Wave | 233 |
| 30 | Massachusetts | $1,955 | $2,652 | $3,597 | +84% | 6.3% | Relatively Low | Coastal Flooding | 55 |
| 31 | Indiana | $1,648 | $2,429 | $3,582 | +117% | 8.1% | Relatively Moderate | Tornado, Cold Wave, Winter Weather | 315 |
| 32 | Connecticut | $2,028 | $2,682 | $3,547 | +75% | 5.8% | Relatively Low | — | 69 |
| 33 | North Dakota | $2,329 | $2,853 | $3,495 | +50% | 4.1% | Very Low | Winter Weather, Cold Wave | 281 |
| 34 | Wisconsin | $1,502 | $2,288 | $3,486 | +132% | 8.8% | Relatively Moderate | Cold Wave, Tornado, Winter Weather | 173 |
| 35 | Virginia | $1,708 | $2,436 | $3,474 | +103% | 7.4% | Relatively Low | Drought, Winter Weather, Strong Wind | 572 |
| 36 | New Mexico | $2,047 | $2,617 | $3,346 | +63% | 5.0% | Relatively Low | Wildfire, Winter Weather | 194 |
| 37 | Rhode Island | $2,301 | $2,631 | $3,008 | +31% | 2.7% | Very Low | — | 34 |
| 38 | Maryland | $1,776 | $2,309 | $3,003 | +69% | 5.4% | Relatively Low | Winter Weather | 75 |
| 39 | Oregon | $1,327 | $1,989 | $2,981 | +125% | 8.4% | Relatively Moderate | Earthquake, Wildfire | 213 |
| 40 | Nevada | $1,591 | $2,140 | $2,878 | +81% | 6.1% | Relatively Low | Wildfire, Heat Wave | 112 |
| 41 | West Virginia | $1,494 | $1,926 | $2,484 | +66% | 5.2% | Relatively Low | — | 228 |
| 42 | Wyoming | $1,708 | $2,022 | $2,393 | +40% | 3.4% | Very Low | — | 59 |
| 43 | Utah | $1,210 | $1,655 | $2,264 | +87% | 6.5% | Relatively Low | Earthquake, Wildfire, Winter Weather | 96 |
| 44 | Hawaii | $1,270 | $1,665 | $2,184 | +72% | 5.6% | Relatively Low | — | 31 |
| 45 | Alaska | $1,300 | $1,648 | $2,089 | +61% | 4.9% | Relatively Low | Earthquake, Winter Weather | 179 |
| 46 | Idaho | $1,360 | $1,680 | $2,076 | +53% | 4.3% | Relatively Low | Wildfire, Winter Weather | 122 |
| 47 | Maine | $1,369 | $1,649 | $1,985 | +45% | 3.8% | Very Low | Winter Weather | 678 |
| 48 | Delaware | $1,376 | $1,643 | $1,961 | +43% | 3.6% | Very Low | — | 9 |
| 49 | New Hampshire | $1,270 | $1,542 | $1,873 | +47% | 4.0% | Very Low | — | 46 |
| 50 | Vermont | $1,120 | $1,292 | $1,490 | +33% | 2.9% | Very Low | — | 127 |
Method & honest limits
- Baseline 7% annual growth. Rolling 3-year average of NAIC average premium increases (2022–2024 data shows 8–14% per year; we use 7% as a moderate planning baseline).
- Hazard adjustment ±5 percentage points. A state with FEMA NRI riskScore 100 carries the full +5pp surcharge (12% annual); riskScore 0 carries the full -5pp discount (2% annual). Linear in between.
- State-grain only. NAIC publishes state averages; carriers price by ZIP, parcel, building age, distance-to-coast, FEMA flood zone, wildfire-urban-interface, and roof age. Sub-state variance dominates the state mean for high-hazard pockets.
- Excludes flood, earthquake, mine subsidence. NAIC homeowners (HO-3 / HO-5) excludes named-peril flood, earthquake, and several other coverages. NFIP (flood) and CEA (CA earthquake) are separate. Add them on top.
- Excludes non-renewal risk. The bigger threat in CA / FL / LA isn't price — it's losing coverage entirely. State Farm and Allstate non-renewals don't show up in NAIC averages until the FAIR Plan re-prices.
- This is not a quote. Get a real bind from a licensed agent before transacting. Carriers will price your specific roof, exposure, and claim history, often within ±30% of these projections.
Sources: NAIC Average Homeowners Premium (state-grain), FEMA National Risk Index (state hazard rating + 18 peril decomposition), FEMA Disaster Declarations. Methodology composed by HomeStats.