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Thurston County, Washington

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$547,475
+27.3% YoY
Active Inventory
593
Days on Market
36 days
Price Drops
25.5%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$560,000
+0.9% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$299,750
-17.9% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+18.7%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
35d / 138d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
2.0 mo
Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
99.8%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
26%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Thurston County, Washington?

$283/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$565,947
Near median (+3% vs median)
Region median
$547,475
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 2,120 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 4,241 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 7,068 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 17,669 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $126K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $547K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $481K $294K real
Net gain on $126K upfront: $355K
Range: $481K → $481K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $547K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $1.23M $910K real
Net gain on $433K contributed: $799K
Range: $574K → $3.17M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $433K total.
Median wealth delta: $751K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$481K$355K$1.80M$1.37M$1.32M rent
2010–2024$481K$355K$1.84M$1.41M$1.36M rent
2009–2023$481K$355K$1.76M$1.33M$1.28M rent
2008–2022$481K$355K$1.24M$804K$757K rent
2007–2021$481K$355K$1.60M$1.17M$1.12M rent
2006–2020$481K$355K$1.37M$938K$890K rent
2005–2019$481K$355K$1.23M$799K$751K rent
2004–2018$481K$355K$1.02M$582K$535K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+21.4%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
+28.6%
currently 36 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
488
Long-Term Avg DOM
28 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+2.8%
positive — appreciating
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2025-10-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
5.8×
overvalued
Median Household Income
$93,985
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
296,640
total residents
Total Housing Units
123,333
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
5.0%
tight
Homeownership Rate
67.8%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
22.0%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
7.7%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
7.3%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+2,105
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
7,751
13,430 people moved in
Outbound Returns
6,587
11,325 people moved out
Net Returns
+1,164
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Pierce, Washington — 2,030 returns
  2. King, Washington — 1,085 returns
  3. Lewis, Washington — 483 returns
  4. Mason, Washington — 361 returns
  5. Grays Harbor, Washington — 320 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Pierce, Washington — 1,623 returns
  2. King, Washington — 861 returns
  3. Lewis, Washington — 558 returns
  4. Mason, Washington — 366 returns
  5. Grays Harbor, Washington — 319 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
23,678
8.06% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
9,648
3.28% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
1,734
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
84%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Washington statewide stats →

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