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Spotsylvania County, Virginia

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$467,500
+26.4% YoY
Active Inventory
456
Days on Market
36 days
Price Drops
23.2%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$515,000
+6.0% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$275,000
-8.1% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+14.1%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
38d / 53d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
2.9 mo
Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
100.0%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
36%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Spotsylvania County, Virginia?

$218/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$436,570
Near median (-7% vs median)
Region median
$467,500
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 2,749 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 5,497 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 9,162 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 22,906 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $108K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $468K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $411K $251K real
Net gain on $108K upfront: $303K
Range: $411K → $411K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $468K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $720K $486K real
Net gain on $204K contributed: $516K
Range: $318K → $2.00M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $204K total.
Median wealth delta: $310K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$411K$303K$1.08M$879K$672K rent
2010–2024$411K$303K$1.11M$904K$698K rent
2009–2023$411K$303K$1.08M$880K$673K rent
2008–2022$411K$303K$674K$470K$263K rent
2007–2021$411K$303K$866K$662K$455K rent
2006–2020$411K$303K$747K$543K$336K rent
2005–2019$411K$303K$664K$460K$254K rent
2004–2018$411K$303K$549K$345K$139K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+30.9%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-17.0%
currently 36 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
348
Long-Term Avg DOM
43 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+3.8%
positive — appreciating
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-04-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
23.3%
2.2 pts harder than Virginia
Loans Actually Made
4,657
1,412 turned down
Average Loan Made
$354,515
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
4.3×
stretched
Median Household Income
$109,576
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
143,876
total residents
Total Housing Units
54,020
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
5.1%
tight
Homeownership Rate
79.7%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
20.2%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
10.7%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
2.9%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+1,691
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
3,818
7,158 people moved in
Outbound Returns
3,067
5,467 people moved out
Net Returns
+751
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Stafford, Virginia — 837 returns
  2. Fredericksburg city, Virginia — 635 returns
  3. Prince William, Virginia — 576 returns
  4. Fairfax, Virginia — 333 returns
  5. Caroline, Virginia — 189 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Fredericksburg city, Virginia — 564 returns
  2. Stafford, Virginia — 525 returns
  3. Caroline, Virginia — 297 returns
  4. Prince William, Virginia — 223 returns
  5. Orange, Virginia — 181 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
11,854
8.32% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
3,031
2.13% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
313
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
88%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Virginia statewide stats →

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