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Fairfax County, Virginia

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$815,000
+25.4% YoY
Active Inventory
2,483
Days on Market
25 days
Price Drops
26.9%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$1,050,000
+9.0% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$357,500
+2.1% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+6.8%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
20d / 37d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
1.7 mo
Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
101.4%
Bidding-war territory

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
50%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Fairfax County, Virginia?

$363/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$725,082
Below median (-11% vs median)
Region median
$815,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 1,655 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 3,310 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 5,517 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 13,792 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $187K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $815K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $716K $437K real
Net gain on $187K upfront: $528K
Range: $716K → $716K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $815K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $2.02M $1.28M real
Net gain on $738K contributed: $1.28M
Range: $951K → $5.11M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $738K total.
Median wealth delta: $1.31M in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$716K$528K$2.94M$2.20M$2.22M rent
2010–2024$716K$528K$3.00M$2.26M$2.28M rent
2009–2023$716K$528K$2.86M$2.12M$2.14M rent
2008–2022$716K$528K$2.06M$1.32M$1.34M rent
2007–2021$716K$528K$2.67M$1.93M$1.95M rent
2006–2020$716K$528K$2.28M$1.54M$1.56M rent
2005–2019$716K$528K$2.05M$1.31M$1.33M rent
2004–2018$716K$528K$1.69M$951K$973K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+47.2%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-19.6%
currently 25 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
1,687
Long-Term Avg DOM
31 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+3.8%
positive — appreciating
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-04-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
19.9%
1.2 pts easier than Virginia
Loans Actually Made
20,777
5,177 turned down
Average Loan Made
$580,730
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
5.4×
overvalued
Median Household Income
$150,113
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
1,144,474
total residents
Total Housing Units
428,352
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
3.7%
tight
Homeownership Rate
68.3%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
19.4%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
5.6%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
2.9%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
-8,452
losing people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
34,095
56,367 people moved in
Outbound Returns
38,672
64,819 people moved out
Net Returns
-4,577
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Arlington, Virginia — 3,648 returns
  2. Alexandria city, Virginia — 3,351 returns
  3. Loudoun, Virginia — 2,814 returns
  4. Prince William, Virginia — 2,805 returns
  5. District of Columbia, District of Columbia — 1,662 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Loudoun, Virginia — 4,287 returns
  2. Prince William, Virginia — 4,212 returns
  3. Arlington, Virginia — 2,724 returns
  4. Alexandria city, Virginia — 2,536 returns
  5. District of Columbia, District of Columbia — 1,177 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
87,454
7.73% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
37,838
3.34% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
15,814
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
86%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Virginia statewide stats →

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