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Ellis County, Texas

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$409,445
+22.2% YoY
Active Inventory
1,231
Days on Market
59 days
Price Drops
30.5%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$408,445
-0.1% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$370,000
-15.9% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+15.8%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
59d / 82d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
3.8 mo
Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
98.6%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
21%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Ellis County, Texas?

$185/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$370,035
Near median (-10% vs median)
Region median
$409,445
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 3,243 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 6,486 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 10,810 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 27,024 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $94K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $409K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $360K $220K real
Net gain on $94K upfront: $265K
Range: $360K → $360K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $409K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $776K $524K real
Net gain on $256K contributed: $520K
Range: $358K → $2.08M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $256K total.
Median wealth delta: $416K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$360K$265K$1.16M$904K$800K rent
2010–2024$360K$265K$1.19M$930K$826K rent
2009–2023$360K$265K$1.14M$888K$784K rent
2008–2022$360K$265K$767K$512K$408K rent
2007–2021$360K$265K$991K$736K$632K rent
2006–2020$360K$265K$850K$595K$491K rent
2005–2019$360K$265K$761K$506K$402K rent
2004–2018$360K$265K$628K$372K$268K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+17.6%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-22.6%
currently 59 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
1,047
Long-Term Avg DOM
76 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+1.6%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-04-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
22.9%
3.3 pts easier than Texas
Loans Actually Made
6,166
1,836 turned down
Average Loan Made
$363,219
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
4.3×
stretched
Median Household Income
$95,898
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
203,927
total residents
Total Housing Units
72,541
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
5.1%
tight
Homeownership Rate
76.3%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
18.4%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
9.8%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
5.5%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+5,745
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
6,859
13,859 people moved in
Outbound Returns
4,356
8,114 people moved out
Net Returns
+2,503
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Dallas, Texas — 3,219 returns
  2. Tarrant, Texas — 1,508 returns
  3. Denton, Texas — 275 returns
  4. Johnson, Texas — 249 returns
  5. Navarro, Texas — 214 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Dallas, Texas — 1,509 returns
  2. Tarrant, Texas — 854 returns
  3. Johnson, Texas — 333 returns
  4. Navarro, Texas — 260 returns
  5. Denton, Texas — 206 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
13,030
6.46% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
3,207
1.59% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
445
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
88%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Texas statewide stats →

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