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Erie County, New York

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$282,814
+28.0% YoY
Active Inventory
1,259
Days on Market
11 days
Price Drops
23.7%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$295,800
+3.1% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$257,500
+7.7% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
-4.7%
condos outperforming SFR
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
10d / 21d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
2.5 mo
Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
105.3%
Bidding-war territory

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
68%
Highly competitive

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Erie County, New York?

$199/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$398,837
Above median range (+41% vs median)
Region median
$282,814
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 3,009 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 6,017 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 10,029 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 25,073 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $65K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $283K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $248K $152K real
Net gain on $65K upfront: $183K
Range: $248K → $248K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $283K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $479K $324K real
Net gain on $147K contributed: $333K
Range: $217K → $1.31M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $147K total.
Median wealth delta: $231K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$248K$183K$719K$572K$470K rent
2010–2024$248K$183K$735K$588K$487K rent
2009–2023$248K$183K$714K$567K$466K rent
2008–2022$248K$183K$461K$314K$213K rent
2007–2021$248K$183K$594K$447K$346K rent
2006–2020$248K$183K$511K$364K$263K rent
2005–2019$248K$183K$456K$309K$208K rent
2004–2018$248K$183K$377K$230K$128K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+22.7%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-27.1%
currently 11 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
1,026
Long-Term Avg DOM
15 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+5.3%
positive — appreciating
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-04-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
21.0%
3.9 pts easier than New York
Loans Actually Made
16,228
4,315 turned down
Average Loan Made
$247,192
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
4.0×
fair value
Median Household Income
$71,175
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
950,044
total residents
Total Housing Units
439,987
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
7.1%
tight
Homeownership Rate
65.5%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
22.1%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
6.7%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
37.8%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
-2,985
losing people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
8,396
13,329 people moved in
Outbound Returns
10,840
16,314 people moved out
Net Returns
-2,444
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Niagara, New York — 1,892 returns
  2. Monroe, New York — 566 returns
  3. Queens, New York — 424 returns
  4. Cattaraugus, New York — 352 returns
  5. Chautauqua, New York — 345 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Niagara, New York — 2,163 returns
  2. Monroe, New York — 556 returns
  3. Cattaraugus, New York — 366 returns
  4. Chautauqua, New York — 347 returns
  5. Genesee, New York — 251 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
34,394
3.66% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
9,394
1% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
3,706
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
89%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See New York statewide stats →

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