Warren County, Illinois Housing Market

Median Sale Price

$107,500

low-volume — YoY suppressed

Active Inventory

Days on Market

141 days

Price Drops

23.8%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)

Single-Family Median

$107,500

Condo / Co-op Median

$160,000

SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap

-175.4%

condos outperforming SFR

DOM: SFR vs. Condo

141d / 2d

SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin

Months of Supply

5.3 mo

Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio

92.1%

Heavy price cuts

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List

Buyer-favorable

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Warren County, Illinois?

$62/sqft median (Redfin)

Square footage 2,000 sqft

Bedrooms +$0 adj

Bathrooms +$0 adj

Lot size optional

Estimated price

$124,213

Above median (+16% vs median)

Region median

$107,500

all homes

Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?

$600,000

≈ 9,661 sqft

$1,200,000

≈ 19,322 sqft

$2,000,000

≈ 32,203 sqft

$5,000,000

≈ 80,507 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500

Property type:

Home price

Monthly rent

Down %

Rate %

Property tax %

Insurance / yr

Maintenance %

HOA / mo

Home appreciation %

Rent inflation %

Horizon (yrs)

Invest in

After-tax mode (MID, SALT, LTCG, Sec 121) Show inflation-adjusted (real) side-by-side VA loan (0% down, no PMI, funding fee)

BUY + OWN

Median ending wealth $94K $58K real

Net gain on $25K upfront: $70K

Range: $94K → $94K

Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $108K asset comes from the 20% down.

RENT + INVEST

Median ending portfolio $32K $12K real

Net gain on $25K contributed: $7K

Range: $-14K → $221K

Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $25K total.

Median wealth delta: $62K in favor of BUY + OWN

What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)

Window	Buy wealth	Buy gain	Rent wealth	Rent gain	Wealth delta
2011–2025	$94K	$70K	$93K	$68K	$2K buy
2010–2024	$94K	$70K	$97K	$72K	$2K rent
2009–2023	$94K	$70K	$106K	$81K	$11K rent
2008–2022	$94K	$70K	$24K	$-388	$70K buy
2007–2021	$94K	$70K	$28K	$3K	$67K buy
2006–2020	$94K	$70K	$28K	$3K	$67K buy
2005–2019	$94K	$70K	$21K	$-4K	$74K buy
2004–2018	$94K	$70K	$18K	$-7K	$76K buy

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend

Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg

-19.6%

deficit — seller leverage

DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg

+75.2%

currently 141 days

Long-Term Avg Inventory

Long-Term Avg DOM

81 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency

State HPI YoY

+6.4%

positive — appreciating

State HPI vs. Peak

0.0%

at or near peak peak 2025-10-01

National Mortgage Delinquency

1.89%

benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income

Value / Income

1.7×

bargain

Median Household Income

$64,650

Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)

Population

16,576

total residents

Total Housing Units

7,598

all units, occupied + vacant

Vacancy Rate

11.5%

elevated

Homeownership Rate

78.1%

of occupied units owner-occupied

Boomer Owners (65+)

26.6%

of homeowner households

Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)

9.7%

of homeowner households

Pre-1949 Housing Stock

42.0%

structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data

Net Migration

-14

losing people (2022–2023)

Inbound Returns

112

207 people moved in

Outbound Returns

138

221 people moved out

Net Returns

-26

household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

Knox, Illinois — 62 returns
Mercer, Illinois — 26 returns
Henderson, Illinois — 24 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

Knox, Illinois — 88 returns
McDonough, Illinois — 29 returns
Rock Island, Illinois — 21 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)

Inbound Movers (1 yr)

1,141

6.91% of pop. — moved here from outside the county

From Other States

303

1.84% of pop. — interstate inbound

From Abroad

moved into the county from outside the U.S.

Same House 1 Year Ago

85%

stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Illinois statewide stats →

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