Fresno County, California Housing Market

Median Sale Price

$429,820

+26.2% YoY

Active Inventory

1,700

Days on Market

45 days

Price Drops

26.7%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)

Single-Family Median

$432,750

-0.5% YoY

Condo / Co-op Median

$207,750

-7.7% YoY

SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap

+7.1%

SFR outperforming condos

DOM: SFR vs. Condo

45d / 38d

SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin

Months of Supply

3.1 mo

Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio

99.4%

At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List

37%

Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Fresno County, California?

$260/sqft median (Redfin)

Square footage 2,000 sqft

Bedrooms +$0 adj

Bathrooms +$0 adj

Lot size optional

Estimated price

$519,833

Above median (+21% vs median)

Region median

$429,820

all homes

Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?

$600,000

≈ 2,308 sqft

$1,200,000

≈ 4,617 sqft

$2,000,000

≈ 7,695 sqft

$5,000,000

≈ 19,237 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500

Property type:

Home price

Monthly rent

Down %

Rate %

Property tax %

Insurance / yr

Maintenance %

HOA / mo

Home appreciation %

Rent inflation %

Horizon (yrs)

Invest in

After-tax mode (MID, SALT, LTCG, Sec 121) Show inflation-adjusted (real) side-by-side VA loan (0% down, no PMI, funding fee)

BUY + OWN

Median ending wealth $377K $231K real

Net gain on $99K upfront: $279K

Range: $377K → $377K

Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $430K asset comes from the 20% down.

RENT + INVEST

Median ending portfolio $920K $613K real

Net gain on $319K contributed: $601K

Range: $429K → $2.39M

Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $319K total.

Median wealth delta: $542K in favor of RENT + INVEST

What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)

Window	Buy wealth	Buy gain	Rent wealth	Rent gain	Wealth delta
2011–2025	$377K	$279K	$1.36M	$1.04M	$979K rent
2010–2024	$377K	$279K	$1.39M	$1.07M	$1.01M rent
2009–2023	$377K	$279K	$1.33M	$1.01M	$952K rent
2008–2022	$377K	$279K	$922K	$603K	$544K rent
2007–2021	$377K	$279K	$1.19M	$875K	$816K rent
2006–2020	$377K	$279K	$1.02M	$702K	$644K rent
2005–2019	$377K	$279K	$917K	$598K	$540K rent
2004–2018	$377K	$279K	$756K	$437K	$378K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend

Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg

+37.0%

surplus — buyer leverage

DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg

+28.0%

currently 45 days

Long-Term Avg Inventory

1,241

Long-Term Avg DOM

35 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency

State HPI YoY

+1.2%

flat — pressure building

State HPI vs. Peak

0.0%

at or near peak peak 2025-10-01

National Mortgage Delinquency

1.89%

benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income

Value / Income

6.0×

severely overvalued

Median Household Income

$71,434

Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)

Population

1,012,152

total residents

Total Housing Units

342,003

all units, occupied + vacant

Vacancy Rate

5.8%

tight

Homeownership Rate

55.4%

of occupied units owner-occupied

Boomer Owners (65+)

16.7%

of homeowner households

Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)

6.5%

of homeowner households

Pre-1949 Housing Stock

9.7%

structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data

Net Migration

-1,901

losing people (2022–2023)

Inbound Returns

9,182

16,109 people moved in

Outbound Returns

10,227

18,010 people moved out

Net Returns

-1,045

household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

Tulare, California — 1,227 returns
Madera, California — 1,151 returns
Los Angeles, California — 761 returns
Kings, California — 498 returns
Santa Clara, California — 410 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

Madera, California — 1,318 returns
Tulare, California — 1,117 returns
Los Angeles, California — 691 returns
Kings, California — 612 returns
Sacramento, California — 460 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)

Inbound Movers (1 yr)

32,812

3.28% of pop. — moved here from outside the county

From Other States

5,249

0.52% of pop. — interstate inbound

From Abroad

3,228

moved into the county from outside the U.S.

Same House 1 Year Ago

90%

stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See California statewide stats →

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