Crime-Adjusted Home Price by State
Median home price + crime context = honest price discovery. A $400k home in a state with 4x national-average violent crime is not the same product as a $400k home in a state with 0.5x. We adjust each state's median home price by an FBI UCR composite (violent weighted 4x, property 1x) to reveal the implied "low-crime equivalent" — the price you'd theoretically pay for the same home in a national-average crime zone.
Highest crime-adjusted priceMassachusetts$609,400 adjusted · $688,100 headline · violent rate 308/100k
Lowest crime-adjusted priceArkansas$132,343 adjusted · $275,500 headline · violent rate 672/100k
U.S. crime benchmark700 stress scoreviolent 380 + property 2000 (weighted)
States by crime-adjusted home price
High adjusted price = the headline median undersells what you're paying for, because crime stress is below national. Low adjusted price = the headline median is overstating the real-world value because crime stress is above national.
| # | State | Median Home | Violent /100k | Property /100k | Crime Stress | Adjusted Price | Implied Adj. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Massachusetts | $688,100 | 308 | 1,320 | 510 | $609,400 | +11.4% |
| 2 | New Hampshire | $537,900 | 147 | 1,250 | 368 | $581,424 | -8.1% |
| 3 | New Jersey | $579,900 | 195 | 1,380 | 432 | $570,126 | +1.7% |
| 4 | California | $887,400 | 442 | 2,491 | 852 | $548,843 | +38.2% |
| 5 | Rhode Island | $536,900 | 200 | 1,460 | 452 | $513,429 | +4.4% |
| 6 | New York | $620,500 | 364 | 1,450 | 581 | $504,354 | +18.7% |
| 7 | Maine | $439,200 | 109 | 1,310 | 349 | $488,620 | -11.3% |
| 8 | Hawaii | $741,300 | 255 | 2,910 | 786 | $486,782 | +34.3% |
| 9 | Connecticut | $498,000 | 183 | 1,538 | 454 | $474,932 | +4.6% |
| 10 | Vermont | $448,400 | 173 | 1,380 | 414 | $452,016 | -0.8% |
| 11 | Virginia | $499,300 | 208 | 1,640 | 494 | $451,330 | +9.6% |
| 12 | Idaho | $503,400 | 227 | 1,610 | 504 | $449,694 | +10.7% |
| 13 | Wyoming | $464,500 | 216 | 1,720 | 517 | $408,070 | +12.1% |
| 14 | Washington | $651,800 | 324 | 3,190 | 897 | $387,581 | +40.5% |
| 15 | Utah | $560,200 | 260 | 2,630 | 734 | $386,726 | +31.0% |
| 16 | Oregon | $525,500 | 292 | 2,910 | 816 | $335,752 | +36.1% |
| 17 | Colorado | $617,000 | 492 | 3,180 | 1030 | $329,795 | +46.5% |
| 18 | Montana | $528,600 | 453 | 2,510 | 864 | $323,331 | +38.8% |
| 19 | Maryland | $477,300 | 454 | 2,190 | 801 | $309,018 | +35.3% |
| 20 | Nevada | $481,200 | 460 | 2,380 | 844 | $299,680 | +37.7% |
| 21 | Wisconsin | $361,600 | 295 | 1,740 | 584 | $292,963 | +19.0% |
| 22 | Florida | $421,500 | 384 | 2,142 | 736 | $290,518 | +31.1% |
| 23 | Pennsylvania | $330,200 | 306 | 1,510 | 547 | $279,560 | +15.3% |
| 24 | Minnesota | $372,300 | 280 | 2,150 | 654 | $279,026 | +25.1% |
| 25 | Arizona | $453,800 | 485 | 2,718 | 932 | $262,182 | +42.2% |
| 26 | North Carolina | $397,600 | 398 | 2,360 | 790 | $260,015 | +34.6% |
| 27 | South Dakota | $346,600 | 399 | 1,730 | 665 | $256,686 | +25.9% |
| 28 | Georgia | $389,000 | 400 | 2,560 | 832 | $244,874 | +37.1% |
| 29 | Illinois | $337,900 | 415 | 1,810 | 694 | $242,844 | +28.1% |
| 30 | Delaware | $384,500 | 424 | 2,542 | 848 | $238,693 | +37.9% |
| 31 | Kentucky | $284,400 | 260 | 1,780 | 564 | $235,877 | +17.1% |
| 32 | Nebraska | $319,100 | 310 | 2,120 | 672 | $234,632 | +26.5% |
| 33 | North Dakota | $311,200 | 283 | 2,180 | 662 | $231,154 | +25.7% |
| 34 | South Carolina | $394,000 | 530 | 2,930 | 1010 | $213,798 | +45.7% |
| 35 | Texas | $356,100 | 446 | 2,650 | 887 | $213,636 | +40.0% |
| 36 | West Virginia | $265,200 | 355 | 1,630 | 610 | $208,584 | +21.3% |
| 37 | Tennessee | $413,200 | 673 | 2,850 | 1108 | $208,326 | +49.6% |
| 38 | Ohio | $282,600 | 310 | 2,160 | 680 | $206,063 | +27.1% |
| 39 | Kansas | $316,300 | 390 | 2,430 | 798 | $205,390 | +35.1% |
| 40 | Michigan | $297,900 | 450 | 1,930 | 746 | $203,246 | +31.8% |
| 41 | Iowa | $258,700 | 302 | 1,920 | 626 | $199,967 | +22.7% |
| 42 | Mississippi | $284,300 | 291 | 2,490 | 731 | $196,884 | +30.7% |
| 43 | Indiana | $287,300 | 394 | 2,250 | 765 | $192,413 | +33.0% |
| 44 | Alaska | $427,100 | 838 | 3,283 | 1327 | $186,042 | +56.4% |
| 45 | Alabama | $312,600 | 454 | 2,832 | 930 | $180,903 | +42.1% |
| 46 | New Mexico | $395,500 | 781 | 3,410 | 1307 | $174,471 | +55.9% |
| 47 | Missouri | $297,500 | 543 | 2,830 | 1000 | $162,644 | +45.3% |
| 48 | Oklahoma | $264,600 | 458 | 2,810 | 928 | $153,277 | +42.1% |
| 49 | Louisiana | $269,000 | 639 | 3,090 | 1129 | $133,622 | +50.3% |
| 50 | Arkansas | $275,500 | 672 | 3,198 | 1177 | $132,343 | +52.0% |
Method & honest limits
- Crime stress = (violent × 4 + property × 1) / 5. Violent weighted 4x property because the disutility cost of a violent crime is overwhelmingly larger; this matches academic hedonic-pricing literature.
- Adjustment = median ÷ max(0.5, stressRatio + 0.4). States with crime stress 4x national divide median by 1.4 (a 29% mark-down); states with stress 0.3x national divide by 0.7 (a 43% premium). Floor 0.5 prevents negative adjustments at zero-crime hypotheticals.
- State-grain only. A state's median masks the spread — crime varies more across ZIPs in a single state than between national averages. Use as state-of-state framing, not parcel underwriting.
- FBI UCR voluntary reporting. Some agencies submit incomplete data; rates can fluctuate ±10% year-to-year for that reason alone.
Sources: FBI Crime Data Explorer, Redfin Data Center.