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Lubbock County, Texas

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$244,000
+23.3% YoY
Active Inventory
1,595
Days on Market
86 days
Price Drops
27.3%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$249,000
+2.3% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$117,500
-4.4% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+6.7%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
85d / 142d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
3.5 mo
Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

% Sold Above List
0%
Buyer-favorable

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Lubbock County, Texas?

$141/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$282,618
Above median (+16% vs median)
Region median
$244,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 4,246 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 8,492 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 14,153 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 35,383 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $56K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $244K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $214K $131K real
Net gain on $56K upfront: $158K
Range: $214K → $214K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $244K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $443K $299K real
Net gain on $143K contributed: $301K
Range: $203K → $1.20M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $143K total.
Median wealth delta: $229K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$214K$158K$663K$521K$449K rent
2010–2024$214K$158K$678K$536K$464K rent
2009–2023$214K$158K$656K$514K$442K rent
2008–2022$214K$158K$434K$292K$220K rent
2007–2021$214K$158K$560K$418K$346K rent
2006–2020$214K$158K$481K$339K$267K rent
2005–2019$214K$158K$430K$288K$216K rent
2004–2018$214K$158K$355K$213K$141K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+10.4%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
+27.9%
currently 86 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
1,445
Long-Term Avg DOM
67 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+1.1%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2025-10-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
3.9×
fair value
Median Household Income
$63,367
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
314,633
total residents
Total Housing Units
136,468
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
9.1%
tight
Homeownership Rate
55.3%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
16.9%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
7.6%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
5.7%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+1,030
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
5,145
8,888 people moved in
Outbound Returns
4,616
7,858 people moved out
Net Returns
+529
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Hockley, Texas — 295 returns
  2. Tarrant, Texas — 281 returns
  3. Hale, Texas — 240 returns
  4. Dallas, Texas — 230 returns
  5. Midland, Texas — 208 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Tarrant, Texas — 357 returns
  2. Dallas, Texas — 346 returns
  3. Hockley, Texas — 296 returns
  4. Harris, Texas — 241 returns
  5. Travis, Texas — 213 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
28,821
9.26% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
6,917
2.22% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
1,582
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
79%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Texas statewide stats →

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