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Fort Bend County, Texas

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$399,872
+9.6% YoY
Active Inventory
4,298
Days on Market
50 days
Price Drops
37.0%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$399,900
-0.0% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$146,500
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+52.6%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
50d / 25d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
4.1 mo
Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
97.1%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
13%
Buyer-favorable

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Fort Bend County, Texas?

$165/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$329,807
Below median (-18% vs median)
Region median
$399,872
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 3,638 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 7,277 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 12,128 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 30,321 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $92K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $400K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $351K $214K real
Net gain on $92K upfront: $259K
Range: $351K → $351K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $400K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $885K $653K real
Net gain on $310K contributed: $574K
Range: $413K → $2.28M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $310K total.
Median wealth delta: $533K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$351K$259K$1.30M$989K$948K rent
2010–2024$351K$259K$1.33M$1.02M$975K rent
2009–2023$351K$259K$1.27M$960K$919K rent
2008–2022$351K$259K$889K$578K$537K rent
2007–2021$351K$259K$1.15M$841K$800K rent
2006–2020$351K$259K$984K$674K$633K rent
2005–2019$351K$259K$885K$574K$533K rent
2004–2018$351K$259K$729K$419K$378K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+44.6%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-11.8%
currently 50 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
2,972
Long-Term Avg DOM
57 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+1.6%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-04-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
25.7%
about the same as statewide
Loans Actually Made
17,625
6,109 turned down
Average Loan Made
$359,076
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
3.5×
fair value
Median Household Income
$113,409
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
859,721
total residents
Total Housing Units
293,694
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
4.2%
tight
Homeownership Rate
77.5%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
17.0%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
7.9%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
1.2%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+10,156
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
24,043
48,554 people moved in
Outbound Returns
20,772
38,398 people moved out
Net Returns
+3,271
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Harris, Texas — 14,433 returns
  2. Brazoria, Texas — 950 returns
  3. Travis, Texas — 385 returns
  4. Bexar, Texas — 340 returns
  5. Montgomery, Texas — 326 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Harris, Texas — 11,572 returns
  2. Brazoria, Texas — 1,409 returns
  3. Montgomery, Texas — 636 returns
  4. Travis, Texas — 579 returns
  5. Dallas, Texas — 342 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
58,905
6.92% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
13,593
1.6% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
9,917
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
89%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Texas statewide stats →

Verify any number on this page: data sources, formulas, and cross-references →