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Falls County, Texas

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$196,000
—
Active Inventory
35
Days on Market
42 days
Price Drops
25.7%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$196,000
+0.5% YoY

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
3.5 mo
Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
92.7%
Heavy price cuts

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
20%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Falls County, Texas?

$106/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$211,538
Near median (+8% vs median)
Region median
$196,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 5,673 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 11,345 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 18,909 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 47,273 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $45K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $196K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $172K $105K real
Net gain on $45K upfront: $127K
Range: $172K → $172K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $196K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $338K $228K real
Net gain on $105K contributed: $233K
Range: $153K → $919K
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $105K total.
Median wealth delta: $165K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$172K$127K$506K$401K$334K rent
2010–2024$172K$127K$517K$412K$345K rent
2009–2023$172K$127K$502K$397K$330K rent
2008–2022$172K$127K$326K$221K$154K rent
2007–2021$172K$127K$420K$315K$248K rent
2006–2020$172K$127K$361K$257K$189K rent
2005–2019$172K$127K$323K$218K$151K rent
2004–2018$172K$127K$267K$162K$94K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+6.3%
roughly balanced
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-61.0%
currently 42 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
33
Long-Term Avg DOM
108 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+1.6%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-04-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
41.6%
15.4 pts harder than Texas
Loans Actually Made
194
138 turned down
Average Loan Made
$248,402
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
3.5×
fair value
Median Household Income
$55,372
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
17,063
total residents
Total Housing Units
7,449
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
19.3%
high vacancy
Homeownership Rate
78.5%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
29.7%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
5.1%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
16.0%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+18
losing people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
206
407 people moved in
Outbound Returns
207
389 people moved out
Net Returns
-1
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. McLennan, Texas — 139 returns
  2. Bell, Texas — 67 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. McLennan, Texas — 162 returns
  2. Bell, Texas — 45 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
1,684
10.06% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
165
0.99% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
23
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
87%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Texas statewide stats →

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