Sullivan County, Missouri Housing Market

Median Sale Price

$118,700

low-volume — YoY suppressed

Active Inventory

Days on Market

30 days

Price Drops

30.8%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)

Single-Family Median

$118,700

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin

Months of Supply

2.2 mo

Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

% Sold Above List

Buyer-favorable

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Sullivan County, Missouri?

$75/sqft median (Redfin)

Square footage 2,000 sqft

Bedrooms +$0 adj

Bathrooms +$0 adj

Lot size optional

Estimated price

$149,075

Above median (+26% vs median)

Region median

$118,700

all homes

Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?

$600,000

≈ 8,050 sqft

$1,200,000

≈ 16,099 sqft

$2,000,000

≈ 26,832 sqft

$5,000,000

≈ 67,081 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500

Property type:

Home price

Monthly rent

Down %

Rate %

Property tax %

Insurance / yr

Maintenance %

HOA / mo

Home appreciation %

Rent inflation %

Horizon (yrs)

Invest in

After-tax mode (MID, SALT, LTCG, Sec 121) Show inflation-adjusted (real) side-by-side VA loan (0% down, no PMI, funding fee)

BUY + OWN

Median ending wealth $104K $64K real

Net gain on $27K upfront: $77K

Range: $104K → $104K

Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $119K asset comes from the 20% down.

RENT + INVEST

Median ending portfolio $56K $37K real

Net gain on $27K contributed: $28K

Range: $-15 → $277K

Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $27K total.

Median wealth delta: $49K in favor of BUY + OWN

What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)

Window	Buy wealth	Buy gain	Rent wealth	Rent gain	Wealth delta
2011–2025	$104K	$77K	$125K	$97K	$20K rent
2010–2024	$104K	$77K	$129K	$102K	$25K rent
2009–2023	$104K	$77K	$137K	$109K	$32K rent
2008–2022	$104K	$77K	$45K	$18K	$59K buy
2007–2021	$104K	$77K	$55K	$27K	$50K buy
2006–2020	$104K	$77K	$51K	$23K	$54K buy
2005–2019	$104K	$77K	$42K	$14K	$63K buy
2004–2018	$104K	$77K	$35K	$8K	$69K buy

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend

Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg

-6.1%

roughly balanced

DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg

-69.0%

currently 30 days

Long-Term Avg Inventory

Long-Term Avg DOM

97 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency

National Mortgage Delinquency

1.86%

benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025

Applications Denied

36.1%

16.7 pts harder than Missouri

Loans Actually Made

22 turned down

Average Loan Made

$186,538

what lenders here actually wrote

National Denial Rate

23.4%

benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income

Value / Income

2.1×

bargain

Median Household Income

$55,500

Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)

Population

5,903

total residents

Total Housing Units

3,032

all units, occupied + vacant

Vacancy Rate

32.7%

high vacancy

Homeownership Rate

73.8%

of occupied units owner-occupied

Boomer Owners (65+)

29.6%

of homeowner households

Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)

5.5%

of homeowner households

Pre-1949 Housing Stock

30.8%

structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data

Net Migration

-37

losing people (2022–2023)

Inbound Returns

33 people moved in

Outbound Returns

70 people moved out

Net Returns

-18

household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

Adair, Missouri — 20 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

Adair, Missouri — 38 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)

Inbound Movers (1 yr)

184

3.14% of pop. — moved here from outside the county

From Other States

0.37% of pop. — interstate inbound

From Abroad

—

moved into the county from outside the U.S.

Same House 1 Year Ago

94%

stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Missouri statewide stats →

Verify any number on this page: data sources, formulas, and cross-references →