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Bay County, Michigan

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$171,800
+28.2% YoY
Active Inventory
230
Days on Market
16 days
Price Drops
34.3%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$169,600
-2.7% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$305,000
+33.8% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
-36.4%
condos outperforming SFR
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
12d / 42d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
2.8 mo
Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
100.0%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
40%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Bay County, Michigan?

$126/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$252,820
Above median range (+47% vs median)
Region median
$171,800
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 4,746 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 9,493 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 15,822 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 39,554 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $40K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $172K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $151K $92K real
Net gain on $40K upfront: $111K
Range: $151K → $151K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $172K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $243K $164K real
Net gain on $64K contributed: $179K
Range: $105K → $687K
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $64K total.
Median wealth delta: $93K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$151K$111K$367K$302K$216K rent
2010–2024$151K$111K$376K$311K$225K rent
2009–2023$151K$111K$370K$305K$219K rent
2008–2022$151K$111K$221K$157K$71K rent
2007–2021$151K$111K$284K$220K$133K rent
2006–2020$151K$111K$246K$182K$95K rent
2005–2019$151K$111K$218K$154K$67K rent
2004–2018$151K$111K$180K$116K$30K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+35.8%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-33.3%
currently 16 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
169
Long-Term Avg DOM
24 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+5.0%
positive — appreciating
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-01-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
2.8×
bargain
Median Household Income
$60,523
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
103,235
total residents
Total Housing Units
48,620
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
7.6%
tight
Homeownership Rate
76.4%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
27.1%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
8.6%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
32.3%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+120
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
1,490
2,396 people moved in
Outbound Returns
1,468
2,276 people moved out
Net Returns
+22
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Saginaw, Michigan — 502 returns
  2. Midland, Michigan — 336 returns
  3. Arenac, Michigan — 95 returns
  4. Tuscola, Michigan — 94 returns
  5. Genesee, Michigan — 84 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Saginaw, Michigan — 480 returns
  2. Midland, Michigan — 311 returns
  3. Oakland, Michigan — 102 returns
  4. Genesee, Michigan — 97 returns
  5. Arenac, Michigan — 87 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
4,300
4.2% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
936
0.91% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
180
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
90%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Michigan statewide stats →

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