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Kennebec County, Maine

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$325,000
+31.0% YoY
Active Inventory
402
Days on Market
45 days
Price Drops
25.4%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$329,900
+4.4% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$189,000
-33.7% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+38.1%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
45d / 34d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
3.2 mo
Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
99.8%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
36%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Kennebec County, Maine?

$219/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$438,395
Above median (+35% vs median)
Region median
$325,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 2,737 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 5,475 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 9,124 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 22,810 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $75K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $325K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $285K $174K real
Net gain on $75K upfront: $211K
Range: $285K → $285K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $325K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $654K $463K real
Net gain on $223K contributed: $431K
Range: $305K → $1.73M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $223K total.
Median wealth delta: $369K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$285K$211K$974K$752K$689K rent
2010–2024$285K$211K$995K$773K$710K rent
2009–2023$285K$211K$958K$735K$672K rent
2008–2022$285K$211K$654K$431K$369K rent
2007–2021$285K$211K$846K$623K$560K rent
2006–2020$285K$211K$725K$502K$439K rent
2005–2019$285K$211K$650K$427K$365K rent
2004–2018$285K$211K$536K$313K$251K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+16.2%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-18.3%
currently 45 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
346
Long-Term Avg DOM
55 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+3.2%
positive — appreciating
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-04-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.86%
benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025
Applications Denied
19.0%
1.8 pts easier than Maine
Loans Actually Made
3,330
781 turned down
Average Loan Made
$227,498
what lenders here actually wrote
National Denial Rate
23.4%
benchmark — all 51 states

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
5.0×
stretched
Median Household Income
$65,062
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
125,614
total residents
Total Housing Units
63,140
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
14.6%
elevated
Homeownership Rate
72.8%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
24.3%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
8.0%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
27.0%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+420
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
2,178
3,388 people moved in
Outbound Returns
1,984
2,968 people moved out
Net Returns
+194
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Somerset, Maine — 363 returns
  2. Cumberland, Maine — 353 returns
  3. Androscoggin, Maine — 334 returns
  4. Penobscot, Maine — 187 returns
  5. Lincoln, Maine — 152 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Somerset, Maine — 406 returns
  2. Cumberland, Maine — 303 returns
  3. Androscoggin, Maine — 272 returns
  4. Penobscot, Maine — 171 returns
  5. Lincoln, Maine — 133 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
7,157
5.75% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
2,616
2.1% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
236
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
88%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Maine statewide stats →

Verify any number on this page: data sources, formulas, and cross-references →