Lawrence County, Kentucky Housing Market

Median Sale Price

$415,000

low-volume — YoY suppressed

Active Inventory

Days on Market

169 days

Price Drops

39.1%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)

Single-Family Median

$415,000

Condo / Co-op Median

$80,000

SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap

+109.1%

SFR outperforming condos

DOM: SFR vs. Condo

169d / 42d

SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin

Months of Supply

23.0 mo

Buyer market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio

109.2%

Bidding-war territory

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List

100%

Highly competitive

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Lawrence County, Kentucky?

$91/sqft median (Redfin)

Square footage 2,000 sqft

Bedrooms +$0 adj

Bathrooms +$0 adj

Lot size optional

Estimated price

$182,257

Entry-level (-56% vs median)

Region median

$415,000

all homes

Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?

$600,000

≈ 6,584 sqft

$1,200,000

≈ 13,168 sqft

$2,000,000

≈ 21,947 sqft

$5,000,000

≈ 54,867 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500

Property type:

Home price

Monthly rent

Down %

Rate %

Property tax %

Insurance / yr

Maintenance %

HOA / mo

Home appreciation %

Rent inflation %

Horizon (yrs)

Invest in

After-tax mode (MID, SALT, LTCG, Sec 121) Show inflation-adjusted (real) side-by-side VA loan (0% down, no PMI, funding fee)

BUY + OWN

Median ending wealth $364K $223K real

Net gain on $95K upfront: $269K

Range: $364K → $364K

Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $415K asset comes from the 20% down.

RENT + INVEST

Median ending portfolio $1.20M $800K real

Net gain on $461K contributed: $736K

Range: $572K → $2.96M

Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $461K total.

Median wealth delta: $832K in favor of RENT + INVEST

What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)

Window	Buy wealth	Buy gain	Rent wealth	Rent gain	Wealth delta
2011–2025	$364K	$269K	$1.73M	$1.27M	$1.37M rent
2010–2024	$364K	$269K	$1.76M	$1.30M	$1.40M rent
2009–2023	$364K	$269K	$1.67M	$1.21M	$1.31M rent
2008–2022	$364K	$269K	$1.24M	$781K	$878K rent
2007–2021	$364K	$269K	$1.62M	$1.15M	$1.25M rent
2006–2020	$364K	$269K	$1.38M	$915K	$1.01M rent
2005–2019	$364K	$269K	$1.24M	$781K	$878K rent
2004–2018	$364K	$269K	$1.02M	$561K	$658K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend

Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg

+21.6%

surplus — buyer leverage

DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg

+136.9%

currently 169 days

Long-Term Avg Inventory

Long-Term Avg DOM

71 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency

State HPI YoY

+4.5%

positive — appreciating

State HPI vs. Peak

0.0%

at or near peak peak 2025-10-01

National Mortgage Delinquency

1.89%

benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income

Value / Income

9.1×

severely overvalued

Median Household Income

$45,584

Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)

Population

16,171

total residents

Total Housing Units

7,575

all units, occupied + vacant

Vacancy Rate

18.8%

high vacancy

Homeownership Rate

76.3%

of occupied units owner-occupied

Boomer Owners (65+)

26.8%

of homeowner households

Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)

7.1%

of homeowner households

Pre-1949 Housing Stock

9.5%

structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data

Net Migration

-16

losing people (2022–2023)

Inbound Returns

101

235 people moved in

Outbound Returns

121

251 people moved out

Net Returns

-20

household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

Boyd, Kentucky — 38 returns
Wayne, West Virginia — 37 returns
Johnson, Kentucky — 26 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

Boyd, Kentucky — 37 returns
Johnson, Kentucky — 31 returns
Wayne, West Virginia — 30 returns
Martin, Kentucky — 23 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)

Inbound Movers (1 yr)

604

3.79% of pop. — moved here from outside the county

From Other States

365

2.29% of pop. — interstate inbound

From Abroad

—

moved into the county from outside the U.S.

Same House 1 Year Ago

92%

stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Kentucky statewide stats →

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