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Polk County, Florida

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$314,000
+28.5% YoY
Active Inventory
4,884
Days on Market
68 days
Price Drops
31.6%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$323,000
+2.5% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$169,500
+5.9% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
-3.4%
condos outperforming SFR
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
65d / 138d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
4.1 mo
Balanced

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
98.1%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
18%
Buyer-favorable

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Polk County, Florida?

$175/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$350,417
Above median (+12% vs median)
Region median
$314,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 3,424 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 6,849 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 11,415 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 28,537 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $72K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $314K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $276K $168K real
Net gain on $72K upfront: $204K
Range: $276K → $276K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $314K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $561K $379K real
Net gain on $178K contributed: $383K
Range: $256K → $1.52M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $178K total.
Median wealth delta: $285K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$276K$204K$840K$662K$564K rent
2010–2024$276K$204K$859K$681K$583K rent
2009–2023$276K$204K$832K$654K$556K rent
2008–2022$276K$204K$547K$369K$271K rent
2007–2021$276K$204K$706K$528K$430K rent
2006–2020$276K$204K$606K$428K$331K rent
2005–2019$276K$204K$542K$364K$266K rent
2004–2018$276K$204K$447K$269K$172K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+17.9%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
+9.0%
currently 68 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
4,144
Long-Term Avg DOM
62 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+0.0%
flat — pressure building
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2025-10-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
4.9×
stretched
Median Household Income
$63,644
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
760,961
total residents
Total Housing Units
329,750
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
16.1%
high vacancy
Homeownership Rate
70.0%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
27.2%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
7.4%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
4.7%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+19,407
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
25,406
46,683 people moved in
Outbound Returns
15,606
27,276 people moved out
Net Returns
+9,800
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Orange, Florida — 4,119 returns
  2. Osceola, Florida — 3,499 returns
  3. Hillsborough, Florida — 3,217 returns
  4. Miami-Dade, Florida — 1,049 returns
  5. Broward, Florida — 855 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Orange, Florida — 2,300 returns
  2. Hillsborough, Florida — 2,055 returns
  3. Osceola, Florida — 1,987 returns
  4. Lake, Florida — 826 returns
  5. Pasco, Florida — 468 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
57,904
7.7% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
22,919
3.05% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
5,471
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
86%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Florida statewide stats →

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