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Baxter County, Arkansas

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$252,000
—
Active Inventory
285
Days on Market
130 days
Price Drops
17.5%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$239,000
+1.3% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$120,000
+17.1% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
-15.8%
condos outperforming SFR
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
127d / 72d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
7.5 mo
Buyer market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
97.6%
At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
8%
Buyer-favorable

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Baxter County, Arkansas?

$131/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$262,733
Near median (+4% vs median)
Region median
$252,000
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 4,567 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 9,135 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 15,225 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 38,062 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $58K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $252K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $221K $135K real
Net gain on $58K upfront: $163K
Range: $221K → $221K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $252K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $572K $423K real
Net gain on $202K contributed: $370K
Range: $267K → $1.47M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $202K total.
Median wealth delta: $351K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$221K$163K$836K$634K$614K rent
2010–2024$221K$163K$853K$651K$632K rent
2009–2023$221K$163K$817K$615K$595K rent
2008–2022$221K$163K$574K$372K$353K rent
2007–2021$221K$163K$744K$542K$523K rent
2006–2020$221K$163K$636K$435K$415K rent
2005–2019$221K$163K$572K$370K$351K rent
2004–2018$221K$163K$472K$270K$250K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
+46.6%
surplus — buyer leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
+79.0%
currently 130 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
194
Long-Term Avg DOM
73 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+4.0%
positive — appreciating
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2025-10-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
5.2×
overvalued
Median Household Income
$48,427
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
42,150
total residents
Total Housing Units
22,836
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
15.5%
high vacancy
Homeownership Rate
75.0%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
37.1%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
4.6%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
6.7%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+144
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
433
743 people moved in
Outbound Returns
324
599 people moved out
Net Returns
+109
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Marion, Arkansas — 160 returns
  2. Izard, Arkansas — 34 returns
  3. Fulton, Arkansas — 33 returns
  4. Craighead, Arkansas — 31 returns
  5. Washington, Arkansas — 30 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Marion, Arkansas — 161 returns
  2. Washington, Arkansas — 43 returns
  3. Fulton, Arkansas — 35 returns
  4. Izard, Arkansas — 35 returns
  5. Benton, Arkansas — 30 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
2,742
6.56% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
1,652
3.95% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
9
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
86%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Arkansas statewide stats →

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