Lyman County, South Dakota Housing Market

Median Sale Price

$253,500

low-volume — YoY suppressed

Active Inventory

—

Days on Market

47 days

Price Drops

—

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)

Single-Family Median

$253,500

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin

Sale-to-List Ratio

97.5%

At asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List

Buyer-favorable

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500

Property type:

Home price

Monthly rent

Down %

Rate %

Property tax %

Insurance / yr

Maintenance %

HOA / mo

Home appreciation %

Rent inflation %

Horizon (yrs)

Invest in

After-tax mode (MID, SALT, LTCG, Sec 121) Show inflation-adjusted (real) side-by-side VA loan (0% down, no PMI, funding fee)

BUY + OWN

Median ending wealth $223K $136K real

Net gain on $58K upfront: $164K

Range: $223K → $223K

Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $254K asset comes from the 20% down.

RENT + INVEST

Median ending portfolio $518K $367K real

Net gain on $177K contributed: $341K

Range: $241K → $1.36M

Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $177K total.

Median wealth delta: $295K in favor of RENT + INVEST

What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)

Window	Buy wealth	Buy gain	Rent wealth	Rent gain	Wealth delta
2011–2025	$223K	$164K	$769K	$592K	$546K rent
2010–2024	$223K	$164K	$785K	$608K	$563K rent
2009–2023	$223K	$164K	$755K	$578K	$533K rent
2008–2022	$223K	$164K	$518K	$341K	$295K rent
2007–2021	$223K	$164K	$670K	$493K	$447K rent
2006–2020	$223K	$164K	$574K	$397K	$351K rent
2005–2019	$223K	$164K	$515K	$338K	$292K rent
2004–2018	$223K	$164K	$424K	$247K	$202K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend

DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg

-55.7%

currently 47 days

Long-Term Avg Inventory

Long-Term Avg DOM

106 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency

State HPI YoY

+2.2%

positive — appreciating

State HPI vs. Peak

0.0%

at or near peak peak 2026-04-01

National Mortgage Delinquency

1.86%

benchmark — 2026-04-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Getting a Mortgage Here

CFPB HMDA 2025

Loans Actually Made

too few rulings to publish a rate

Every lender above a size threshold has to report each application and what they did with it. The denial rate here counts only applications a lender actually ruled on — approved or denied. Files the applicant withdrew, and files closed as incomplete, are left out of both halves, so this runs higher than tables that bury them in the denominator. This county had fewer than 50 ruled-on applications, where a handful of files swing the rate several points, so no rate is shown. Compare every state and county →

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income

Value / Income

4.1×

stretched

Median Household Income

$61,169

Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)

Population

3,717

total residents

Total Housing Units

1,561

all units, occupied + vacant

Vacancy Rate

24.1%

high vacancy

Homeownership Rate

72.2%

of occupied units owner-occupied

Boomer Owners (65+)

29.6%

of homeowner households

Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)

10.0%

of homeowner households

Pre-1949 Housing Stock

22.1%

structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data

Net Migration

-40

losing people (2022–2023)

Inbound Returns

—

— people moved in

Outbound Returns

40 people moved out

Net Returns

-22

household-filer basis

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

Brule, South Dakota — 22 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)

Inbound Movers (1 yr)

217

5.96% of pop. — moved here from outside the county

From Other States

1.37% of pop. — interstate inbound

From Abroad

moved into the county from outside the U.S.

Same House 1 Year Ago

93%

stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See South Dakota statewide stats →

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