Bear Lake County, Idaho
Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.
Single-Family vs. Condo
Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators
Latest month — RedfinInventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.
Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.
Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.
What does your sqft target cost in Bear Lake County, Idaho?
$230/sqft median (Redfin)Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.
Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested
15-yr rolling history · S&P 500What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
| Window | Buy wealth | Buy gain | Rent wealth | Rent gain | Wealth delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011–2025 | $381K | $281K | $1.80M | $1.32M | $1.42M rent |
| 2010–2024 | $381K | $281K | $1.84M | $1.36M | $1.46M rent |
| 2009–2023 | $381K | $281K | $1.74M | $1.26M | $1.36M rent |
| 2008–2022 | $381K | $281K | $1.29M | $814K | $913K rent |
| 2007–2021 | $381K | $281K | $1.68M | $1.20M | $1.30M rent |
| 2006–2020 | $381K | $281K | $1.43M | $953K | $1.05M rent |
| 2005–2019 | $381K | $281K | $1.29M | $814K | $912K rent |
| 2004–2018 | $381K | $281K | $1.06M | $585K | $683K rent |
Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).
Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.
Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.
This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.
Market Pressure Signals
Derived from Redfin trendMortgage & Price Stress
State HPI + national delinquencyState-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).
Value Ratios
Median home price ÷ county median incomeHistorically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.
Housing Stock & Owners
Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.
Who's Moving In (Census ACS)
Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.
Trends
Up to 5 years of monthly dataMedian Sale Price
Active Inventory
Days on Market
Looking for state-level data? See Idaho statewide stats →
Verify any number on this page: data sources, formulas, and cross-references →