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Middlesex County, Connecticut

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$453,425
+37.2% YoY
Active Inventory
338
Days on Market
36 days
Price Drops
20.4%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$511,000
+9.9% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$256,000
+2.1% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+7.8%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
36d / 37d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
2.3 mo
Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
104.0%
Bidding-war territory

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
67%
Highly competitive

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Middlesex County, Connecticut?

$270/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$539,711
Above median (+19% vs median)
Region median
$453,425
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 2,223 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 4,447 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 7,411 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 18,528 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $104K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $453K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $398K $243K real
Net gain on $104K upfront: $294K
Range: $398K → $398K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $453K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $946K $670K real
Net gain on $325K contributed: $621K
Range: $440K → $2.48M
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $325K total.
Median wealth delta: $548K in favor of RENT + INVEST
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$398K$294K$1.40M$1.07M$1.00M rent
2010–2024$398K$294K$1.43M$1.10M$1.03M rent
2009–2023$398K$294K$1.37M$1.05M$974K rent
2008–2022$398K$294K$946K$621K$548K rent
2007–2021$398K$294K$1.22M$899K$826K rent
2006–2020$398K$294K$1.05M$723K$650K rent
2005–2019$398K$294K$940K$616K$542K rent
2004–2018$398K$294K$775K$450K$377K rent

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
-12.2%
deficit — seller leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-10.1%
currently 36 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
385
Long-Term Avg DOM
40 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+6.6%
positive — appreciating
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2026-01-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Connecticut statewide stats →

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