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Vermilion County, Illinois

Single-family vs. condo trends, market pressure signals, and 5-year price history. Source: Redfin.

Median Sale Price
$128,950
—
Active Inventory
114
Days on Market
34 days
Price Drops
22.8%

Single-Family vs. Condo

Source: Redfin (property-type breakdown)
Single-Family Median
$129,900
+15.0% YoY
Condo / Co-op Median
$85,000
-31.2% YoY
SFR vs. Condo YoY Gap
+46.2%
SFR outperforming condos
DOM: SFR vs. Condo
36d / 34d
SFR / Condo

Buyer vs. Seller Market Indicators

Latest month — Redfin
Months of Supply
2.6 mo
Seller market

Inventory ÷ monthly sales. Below 3 = strong seller market; 3-6 balanced; above 6 = buyer market.

Sale-to-List Ratio
95.7%
Below asking

Median closing price ÷ original list price. Above 100% = homes routinely closing above asking.

% Sold Above List
25%
Mixed

Share of closed sales priced above asking. The single cleanest read on bidder competition.

What does your sqft target cost in Vermilion County, Illinois?

$85/sqft median (Redfin)
+$0 adj
+$0 adj
optional
Estimated price
$169,195
Above median (+31% vs median)
Region median
$128,950
all homes
Price-tier reverse lookup — what sqft does each price band buy?
$600,000
≈ 7,092 sqft
$1,200,000
≈ 14,185 sqft
$2,000,000
≈ 23,641 sqft
$5,000,000
≈ 59,103 sqft

Estimate = (median $/sqft × your sqft) + bed/bath/lot adjustments. Bed and bath adjustments use Appraisal Institute / Fannie Mae standard rules of thumb (~$15K/extra bedroom, ~$20K/extra bathroom vs. a 3bd/2ba baseline; half-bath = half adj). Lot premium is a $1.50/sqft heuristic beyond a 6,000 sqft baseline — accuracy varies sharply by urban infill vs. acreage market. Quality, condition, year built, and HOA are not modeled here. For a deeper county-level hedonic AVM, see AVM Lite.

Rent + invest vs. buy + own — backtested

15-yr rolling history · S&P 500
Property type:
Upfront capital committed (both paths): $30K = 20% down + 3% closing on a $129K home
BUY + OWN
Median ending wealth $113K $69K real
Net gain on $30K upfront: $84K
Range: $113K → $113K
Wealth = home value (appreciated at 3%/yr) − remaining mortgage − 6% selling cost. Gain = wealth − upfront. Leveraged appreciation on full $129K asset comes from the 20% down.
RENT + INVEST
Median ending portfolio $91K $67K real
Net gain on $30K contributed: $61K
Range: $25K → $357K
Same upfront cash + each year's (own − rent) surplus invested in S&P 500 at actual annual returns. Median renter contributed $30K total.
Median wealth delta: $22K in favor of BUY + OWN
What if you'd started in a recent year? (most-recent 15yr window: 2011–2025)
WindowBuy wealthBuy gainRent wealthRent gainWealth delta
2011–2025$113K$84K$172K$142K$59K rent
2010–2024$113K$84K$177K$147K$64K rent
2009–2023$113K$84K$182K$152K$69K rent
2008–2022$113K$84K$80K$50K$33K buy
2007–2021$113K$84K$100K$69K$14K buy
2006–2020$113K$84K$89K$59K$24K buy
2005–2019$113K$84K$76K$46K$37K buy
2004–2018$113K$84K$64K$33K$49K buy

Educational tool, not investment or real-estate advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests use actual annual total returns including dividends from S&P 500 (Damodaran (NYU Stern) annual total return (with dividends), 1957-present.).

Buyer model: 30-yr fixed mortgage, P&I + property tax + insurance + maintenance (1% of value/yr) + HOA. Selling cost = 6%. Investor model: down payment + annual cashflow surplus invested in the chosen index at that calendar year's actual return.

Tax model: pre-tax comparison. Toggle "after-tax mode" to apply MID, SALT, LTCG, and the Sec 121 capital-gains exclusion.

This calculator does not adjust for: PMI (assumed 20%+ down), differential transaction costs by state, lifestyle factors (commute, schools, kids), illiquidity / forced-sale risk, or insurance availability constraints (e.g., FL/CA wildfire). Consult a fiduciary advisor and tax professional before acting on any of this.

Market Pressure Signals

Derived from Redfin trend
Inventory vs. Long-Term Avg
-16.6%
deficit — seller leverage
DOM vs. 24-Mo Avg
-4.7%
currently 34 days
Long-Term Avg Inventory
137
Long-Term Avg DOM
36 days

Mortgage & Price Stress

State HPI + national delinquency
State HPI YoY
+6.4%
positive — appreciating
State HPI vs. Peak
0.0%
at or near peak peak 2025-10-01
National Mortgage Delinquency
1.89%
benchmark — 2026-01-01 county-grain delinquency requires paid data

State-grain HPI YoY + drawdown from peak is the cleanest free price-stress proxy. The national delinquency rate gives the macro mortgage-stress backdrop. True county-level mortgage delinquency lives in paid datasets (MBA NDS, CoreLogic LP).

Value Ratios

Median home price ÷ county median income
Value / Income
2.4×
bargain
Median Household Income
$54,537
Census ACS B19013

Historically affordable markets sit at 3–4× income; over 5× is stretched, over 6× is severely overvalued. Lower ratios point to bargain opportunities.

Housing Stock & Owners

Census ACS 5-year (B19013, B01003, B25002, B25003, B25034, B25007)
Population
73,179
total residents
Total Housing Units
34,390
all units, occupied + vacant
Vacancy Rate
12.2%
elevated
Homeownership Rate
69.2%
of occupied units owner-occupied
Boomer Owners (65+)
26.6%
of homeowner households
Millennial / Gen-X Owners (35-54)
6.9%
of homeowner households
Pre-1949 Housing Stock
42.0%
structures built before 1949

When boomer-owner share is high, expect more inventory hitting the market over the next decade as homes transition. High vacancy + high old-stock often signals deferred-maintenance markets where buyers can negotiate.

Net Migration (IRS Tax Returns)

IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data
Net Migration
+165
gaining people (2022–2023)
Inbound Returns
510
981 people moved in
Outbound Returns
479
816 people moved out
Net Returns
+31
household-filer basis

Top 5 Origins (where movers came from)

  1. Champaign, Illinois — 222 returns
  2. Cook, Illinois — 93 returns
  3. Iroquois, Illinois — 50 returns
  4. Fountain, Indiana — 44 returns
  5. Vigo, Indiana — 28 returns

Top 5 Destinations (where movers went)

  1. Champaign, Illinois — 210 returns
  2. Cook, Illinois — 75 returns
  3. Fountain, Indiana — 48 returns
  4. Marion, Indiana — 34 returns
  5. Iroquois, Illinois — 33 returns

IRS Statistics of Income tracks county-to-county migration via tax-return change-of-address. Net migration uses the exemption count (a proxy for people, including dependents). True net flow can lag by 1–2 years vs. real-time movements.

Who's Moving In (Census ACS)

Source: Census ACS B07001 (5-year)
Inbound Movers (1 yr)
1,447
2% of pop. — moved here from outside the county
From Other States
680
0.94% of pop. — interstate inbound
From Abroad
38
moved into the county from outside the U.S.
Same House 1 Year Ago
92%
stable residents

Census ACS asks where people lived 1 year ago, so this counts inbound movers but does not show outbound — true net migration would require IRS SOI parsing.

Trends

Up to 5 years of monthly data

Median Sale Price

Trailing 12 months

Active Inventory

Trailing 12 months

Days on Market

Trailing 12 months

Looking for state-level data? See Illinois statewide stats →

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